By Marek Grzybowski, Maritime Journalist Club BSSC
DNV presents the new report “Energy Transition Outlook 2023” and “Maritime safety trends” during Nor Shipping 2023. RESULTS of the research by DNV experts were presented by: Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO, DNV and Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV GL – Maritime and a member of the Executive Board of DNV GL SE.
Our global transport system is already responsible for a quarter of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the next three decades, the global vehicle fleet will grow from 1.2 billion to 2 billion vehicles, passenger flights will increase by 130%, and cargo tonne-miles at sea will expand by 35%. Can we accommodate that growth while reducing emissions?
The short answer is that much of transportation will decarbonize, and emissions will reduce by some 40% by mid-century. But by then the relative contribution of transport to global emissions will have risen to one third, implying that the sector needs to tackle decarbonization with a much greater sense of urgency – said Remi Eriksen, Group President and CEO, DNV.
Electricity will, without doubt, be the main decarbonization route for transport — powering nearly 80% of the world’s vehicle fleet by 2050. Recent advances
in battery densities and electric motor technology suggest that electricity will make inroads into subsectors previously thought to be hard-to-electrify — like long-haul heavy trucking, and to some extent short-haul aviation.
There remain, however, very large transport subsectors that cannot feasibly electrify. Aviation is under enormous public and regulatory pressure to decarbonize. Biogenic sustainable aviation fuel will need to be produced in vast quantities but must be sourced sustainably. Hence, it will remain very costly, at least for the next 10 years, as will e-fuels that are energy-intensive to produce and rely on the widespread availability of green hydrogen that will only scale from the mid-2030s. These higher costs will need to be absorbed into the industry’s value chains and socialized through higher tariffs and taxes. First mover advantages are already apparent for airlines and transport companies working with those customers willing to pay a premium to reduce their scope 3 emissions. Ultimately, however, the decarbonization at scale will require an unprecedented public-private partnership across national borders and multilateral agreement on new standards.
Movement in this direction is already taking root, for example, through the World Economic Forum’s Clean Skies for Tomorrow initiative.
Similar, joined-up thinking and transnational publicprivate commitment is needed for the decarbonization of the maritime industry, where large-scale
implementation of energy efficiency measures are needed and huge amounts of carbon-neutral fuels, like biofuels and hydrogen-based fuels – informed Remi Eriksen.
The main aspects of the transformation and maritime safety trends in the maritime transport were discussed by Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV GL Maritime.
For the maritime industry, this is more than a moment of change. It’s a time for transformation. Never have the decisions it faces been so complex. Nor their consequences ever mattered more. As a trusted voice of the industry, we help decision-makers throughout the maritime world to make purposeful and assured choices. From regulatory compliance, next generation fuels, vessel and operational optimization, to in-depth advice and insight, explore our solutions.
The maritime industry is on a journey of transformation. Demand for a more decarbonised world and rapid technological advancements are leading to significant changes to the global maritime fleet and compelling us to calibrate our way of thinking about safety. New engine types, fuels, and digital systems offer many
solutions but also bring increased uncertainty and new risks. The maritime industry needs to embrace safety as it adapts to these changes.
Continued accidents and loss of lives means that we must strive to do better and continue to ask challenging questions when it comes to safety.
– Negative safety trends continued in 2022, reminding us that our work on safety is never done. To reverse these trends and bring the maritime industry as close as
possible to a zero accidents aspiration, a more holistic approach needs to be adopted. This means placing equal value on human, organisational and technological elements when not embraced by all crew members and onshore workers or if they don’t become ingrained in the culture of a company – said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV GL Maritime.
Companies must develop a robust and trustworthy safety culture, placing people at its core. A deeper awareness of how humans interact will lead to a
more comprehensive understanding of new technologies. This will help us develop training programmes that are safe, reliable, and considerate of the day-to-day realities of those who depend upon them most – results from a report prepared by DNV experts and published by LL Inteligence.
Recognition of health and wellbeing is also a crucial part of this process. Proactive investment in the psychological and physical welfaren of a ship’s crew and onshore workers will lead to reduced human error, more enthusiastic collaboration, fewer accidents and ultimately a greater return on investment for ship owners.
Adopting more progressive and effective safety standards also needs to go beyond the actions of individual companies and be considered from an industry-wide standpoint. The transition to new types of engines running on new fuels may be accompanied by machine failure and accidents. As an industry, we will benefit from sharing the experiences and lessons learnt so that we all continue to move in the right direction. This will help us all to maintain progress while, much more
importantly, minimising the risk to human life.
All industry stakeholders have a role to play when it comes to driving safety standards. At DNV we take seriously our responsibility in developing safety guidelines, standards and rules which can help deal with the challenges of a maritime industry in constant evolution. This requires collaboration with a range of stakeholders and industry groups,, and we hope that this spirit of knowledge sharing will continue to be adopted by all players in the industry as we cast aside our competitive
instincts and strive for improved safety standards for all. Although the maritime industry is on the cusp of exciting change, it is coupled with uncertainty. Navigating these waters requires effective leadership, teamwork, and a new way of thinking.