Container Shipping with Profits in 2024, Uncertain Outlook for 2025

By Marek Grzybowski

Container lines achieved net sales of USD 26.8 billion in Q3 and this result may be slightly worse in Q4 2025. Sales growth of 164% compared to the second quarter of the previous year is the result of the third quarter of 2024. The economic results of container ship operators in 2024 are the reverse of the trend observed in 2023, when profits fell during the year as the disruptions from the pandemic eased, ending with a loss of USD 700 million in the fourth quarter – notes John D. McCown, an independent shipping expert.

Good results in 2024 despite disruptions on the main liner connections should not be surprising. Disruptions on the main liner connections have strengthened container ship operators instead of weakening them. This happened despite higher operating costs for container carriers, which were forced to redirect tonnage around the Cape of Good Hope after the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and after reduced capacity in the Panama Canal.

The extended travel times of ships meant that excess cargo space was used and freight indices jumped. Shipco reports that container shipping on the sea lanes reached a record in Q3 2024. The ships transported 47 million TEU, which is 2% higher than the previous peak reached during the pandemic in 2021, according to calculations by John McCown of Blue Alpha Capital.
Container Trade Statistics (CTS) data shows that container shipments by sea in the first nine months reached 136.7 million TEU, up 6.3% year-on-year (YoY) and 1.5% compared to 2021 levels. This growing trend was of course reflected in ports, with Shanghai becoming the first port to exceed 50 million TEU.

Higher volumes and higher freight
Higher volumes and higher rates resulted in significant profit growth. Cargo revenue in Q3 increased by 52.5% year-on-year. Spot rates more than doubled compared to the previous year, which is clearly visible when analyzing the annual course of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI). This is clearly visible in export relations to both the European and American markets.
It is no wonder that carriers reported a profit of around USD 27 billion in the third quarter, an increase of 164% compared to the second quarter and almost nine times more than in the same period last year, informs McCown, who notes that this result more than doubled the industry’s best annual profits achieved before the pandemic. However, they are significantly lower than those achieved in 2021-2022. 2024, therefore, could be the third most profitable year in the history of liner shipping!
In the first nine months of 2024, the net profits of the leading carriers were already higher than the full-year results in both 2020 and 2023. Significantly higher fuel expenses did not prevent carriers from generating large profits. The redirection of ships to sea routes around Africa led to an almost 20% increase in transport work measured in tonne-miles year-on-year. And it should be noted that the total number of tonne-miles reached 62.037 billion in 2023. And then there was already a 4.2% increase compared to 2022.

Between January and September, Maersk saw a 23% year-on-year increase in bunkering costs directly related to the rerouting of its ships, after burning 8.5 million tons of fuel, up 16% compared to the same period before the Houthi attacks in 2023. The introduction of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) on January 1 also added another cost increase for carriers, with Maersk paying just under $130 million in carbon offsets this year, with no equivalent outlay last year. Based on preliminary, unaudited data, A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S (APMM) reported service sales of $15.8 billion. As a result, EBITDA came in at $4.8 billion and EBIT of $3.3 billion for Q3 2024. Based on these results, A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S has revised its forecasts for the full year 2024. APMM is forecasting EBITDA of up to USD 11.5 billion and EBIT profit in the range of USD 5.2-5.7 billion. Previously, the Danish containership operator had assumed profits of USD 9-11 billion and USD 3-5 billion, respectively. The forecasts for the growth of the global container market volume for the full year 2024 have been revised to around 6% (previously 4-6% was assumed). More detailed economic results from the operator will be released from Copenhagen in March. Maersk therefore has the funds to further decarbonize its fleet.

CMA CGM. 2024 Earnings – Adjustments to 2025
CMA CGM, the French ocean carrier headquartered in Marseille, transported 6 million TEU in Q3 2024, up 5.5% compared to the same period last year. According to the company, the growth was driven by strong demand during a dynamic period of global trade. The high demand for freight was caused by the acceleration of the season. Customers were concerned about delays in the delivery of goods due to congestion in supplier ports and extended sea transit times.
At the meeting of the Board of Directors of the CMA CGM Group, which met under the chairmanship of Rodolphe Saadé, President and CEO of CMA CGM, the economic results of the operator were assessed positively. Summing up the financial report for the third quarter of 2024, Rodolphe Saadé said: “In a context of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, our Group achieved solid results in the third quarter, with a very dynamic maritime activity and a logistics pillar that continues its transformation.”

CMA CGM achieved very good results in 2024 thanks to the activity of all business groups and successful marketing decisions. Saadé emphasized: “we successfully adapted our offer and made structural investments, in particular in terminals. This quarter was also an important step in the implementation of artificial intelligence in our activities to continue to improve the quality of services for our customers.”
CMA CGM’s revenue from transport services reached USD 10.85 billion for Q3 2024. This meant an increase in sales of 43.4% compared to Q3 2023. As a result, EBITDA amounted to USD 4.36 billion (an increase of 179%). The average revenue per TEU transported by sea amounted to USD 1,798. Together with the sale of logistics services, the CMA CGM Group’s revenue increased significantly, reaching almost USD 15.84 billion. This gave an increase of 38.5% compared to Q3 2023. EBITDA profit increased by 149% to almost USD 5 billion.

The above economic results and good previous years translated into activity in 2024-2025. The CMA CGM Group developed investments in new services, placing an order for twelve 15 thousand TEU vessels with LNG installations at Hyundai Heavy Industries. This order is part of the CMA CGM fleet renewal program, in line with the Group’s goal of achieving net zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, from the moment the vessels enter service at the end of 2027.

In addition, the CMA CGM Group is active in the logistics market and continues to integrate Bolloré Logistics following its acquisition at the end of February 2024. From now on, CEVA Logistics and Bolloré Logistics will operate under one brand – CEVA Logistics.

Hapag-Lloyd with lower freight, good profits
Hapag-Lloyd ended the first nine months of 2024 with a Group EBITDA of USD 3.6 billion. Group EBIT amounted to USD 1.9 billion. In this case, increased transport costs due to the redirection of ships around Africa, the results were weaker than in 2023. However, stronger demand and higher freight rates in the third quarter led to a significant increase in profits compared to the previous quarters of 2024. In the liner shipping segment, transport volumes increased in the first nine months of 2024 by 5 percent compared to the previous year’s period, to 9.3 million TEU (9M 2023: 8.9 million TEU), the Hamburg-based operator reports.
Transport sales revenues fell by 2 percent to USD 15.0 billion. This is the result of a lower average freight rate of USD 1,467/TEU compared to the same period last year (9M 2023: USD 1,604/TEU), explains Hapag-Lloyd management. EBITDA fell to USD 3.5 billion and EBIT to USD 1.9 billion. This could mean that EBITDA could reach around USD 4 billion in 2024.

As with other operators, the Terminals & Infrastructure division recorded a significant increase in sales and profits in the first nine months of 2024. EBITDA rose to USD 114 million and EBIT to USD 56 million. The Hamburg operator activated this activity in the second half of 2023. In 2025, Hapag-Lloyd is also using the potential provided by the increased revenues in previous years.

– The first nine months of 2024 were characterized by unexpectedly strong demand. Despite the tense security situation in the Red Sea and the associated diversion of ships, we were able to increase our transport volume even further compared to the previous year and can look back on a good result, reported Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd AG. The operator launched a program to build 24 new ships. The terminal business was expanded under the Hanseatic Global Terminals brand. The 2030 Strategy is being consistently implemented. Rolf Habben Jansen also reported that “In the face of recent higher than expected demand and improved freight rates – and despite increased transport costs – the Management Board has raised its forecast for 2024. We wrote about it here [https://www.gospodarkamorska.pl/hapag-lloyd-stawia-na-metanol-firma-zawiera-dlugoterminowa-umowe-na-odbior-zielonego-paliwa-dla-statkow-81956]
The Group’s EBITDA is expected to be between USD 4.6 and 5.0 billion, and the Group’s EBIT between USD 2.4 and 2.8 billion”. Given the highly volatile development of freight rates and the continuing major geopolitical challenges, this forecast is still subject to uncertainty – the CEO of Hapag-Lloyd AG reserves.

Uncertain 2025 in container transport
The situation in 2025 will be extremely complex. Firstly, container ship operators must expect increased competition caused by new deliveries of container ships. In 2025, ships ordered in 2022-2023 will sail out onto the sea routes, i.e. around 350 ships. Around 50 container ships will be withdrawn from the market. The same number as in 2024.

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It is therefore worth recalling from Vessel Value that “Orders for new ships increased by around 76% year-on-year to 321 contracts with options, compared to 182 orders in 2023.” Contracts for ULCV/New Panamax account for over 60% of container ship orders. Post/Panamax accounts for 92 orders, or about 29% of the global order book. Third place is occupied by the Sub/Handy container sector with 19 new vessels. Fourth place is occupied by the Feedermax sector with just 14 new container vessel orders.

Vessel Value Experts mention the aforementioned contract for 12 Post Panamax Container vessels with a capacity of 9,200 TEU each as the most important transaction. These vessels were ordered by Hapag Lloyd and are to be delivered in 2027–2028. The vessels will be built by New Times Shipbuilding under an en bloc contract for USD 140 million each. Also worth mentioning is the Jiangsu Yanzijiang contract for 18 New Panamax Container vessels with a capacity of 16,800 TEU, which are to be delivered in 2027–2028. The vessels will be built under an en bloc contract for USD 220 million each. 6 ULCV vessels with a capacity of 19,000 TEU will be built in Shanghai Waigaoquiao. The container ships will be built and delivered in 2028. The contract price was around USD 210 million for each vessel. Zhoushang Changhong has been awarded a contract for 12 ULCVs with a capacity of 19,000 TEU. The units will be delivered in 2027–2029. They have been contracted for USD 210 million each. Penglai Zhongbai Jinglu will build 8 new Panamax vessels with a capacity of 11,500 TEU, which will be introduced into service in 2027–2028. The shipyard has contracted them for USD 140 million each. Jinagsu New Hantong will build 10 ULCVs with a capacity of 21,000 TEU, each worth over USD 240 million. They will appear in container ports in 2027–2028. All contracts are orders placed in shipyards by MSC. The year 2025 may not be as good for container operators as 2024. Sales of services and profits may be similar to 2023. Oversupply of the fleet is not the only concern for operators. The main threat is the fact that Donald Trump announced the introduction of a restrictive tariff policy on imports from China. During his first presidency, China and the US applied retaliatory tariffs. However, since then, the production of many Chinese products has been distributed to APEC countries, on which the US will not impose restrictive tariffs. Since the previous Trump presidency, operators delivering goods from China have modified their connections and some Chinese industry products will reach the US through Latin American ports. It can therefore be assumed that the sales of logistics services related to container transport will remain at a level similar to 2023. Freight will be affected by the growing capacity of operators, and rates in ports by competition between terminals and intermodal operators. Operators will save their balance sheets by selling logistics and terminal services.