US ports show no signs of slowing down despite Trump’s decision and IMF forecasts

Container terminals in the United States are a good example of the important role seaports play in the economy. Following the decisions of the authorities to raise tariffs – both on the Pacific and Atlantic sides – the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecasts for the growth of the world economy. According to the latest World Economic Outlook report, the global economy will grow by only 2.8% in 2025. This is a significant correction compared to the forecast from January, which was 3.3%. It is not until 2026 that the expected growth will reach the level of 3%, which is also below the previous estimate (3.3%). These trends will have a direct impact on transshipment volumes in ports.

At the beginning of 2025, importers in the US responded with increased orders – in January alone, container imports reached almost 2.5 million TEU, which means a new monthly record. It exceeded the previous peak from January 2022 by over 21.5 thousand TEU – reports Descartes in the latest report. The growth was fueled by the announced tariff policies of the Trump administration.

The International Monetary Fund in its April report predicts a weakening of the world’s two largest economies, China and the United States. The US economy will grow by just 1.8% this year, down significantly from its previous forecast of 2.7% and 1% below the 2024 result. A good sign is that the IMF does not predict a recession in the US, although it has raised the chances of one this year from 25% to about 40%. The forecast for China is much better, with growth of 4% in the next two years. However, this is a 0.5% drop in the forecast.

Ports in a New Era

“We are entering a new era. This global economic system that has worked for the last 80 years is being reset,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic adviser and director of research at the IMF, said April 16 during a conference in Washington, reports Jacquelyn Martin of The Associated Press.

January imports from China were up a notable 10.6% from December, reaching 997,909 TEUs — just 2.4% below the all-time record of 1,022,912 TEUs set in July 2024.
Year-over-year, volumes from China are up 10.2% from January 2024, Descartes analysts found. That figure reflects strong demand for Chinese imports. It noted that the new tariffs, combined with the Chinese Lunar New Year, have created unprecedented turmoil in the U.S. market. American brokers from Descartes note that “the future is uncertain for importers and [tariff policy – ​​MG] could disrupt trade flows in the coming months.”

Source: Descartes

Descartes’ logisticians were already predicting growing “risks from trade policy tensions” in February. The fact is that U.S. importers face higher costs in 2025 as tariffs rise. This disrupts global trade relations. An additional threat is “ongoing geopolitical instability in the Middle East, which adds another layer of instability. These combined factors create the potential for supply chain volatility in the first months of 2025, presenting challenges for companies navigating this unpredictable environment.”

Ports are a vital part of the U.S. economy. Seaport activity contributes about $2.9 trillion to U.S. GDP each year. The port business has already recovered from the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, which caused a decline in imports of containerized goods, and therefore a decline in transshipment and logistics revenues related to container and general cargo shipments. Two years ago, there was an increase in economic activity, especially in the supply of goods, as a result of consumer-driven demand. A significant portion of consumer goods delivered through seaports came from China, with the majority coming from Asian countries.

22 million workers in ports
Government documents emphasize that American ports provide over 21.8 million jobs, including specialists directly related to maritime transport, as well as logisticians and companies ensuring port operations. That is why seaports are receiving significant financial injections. Federal investments have almost doubled recently. – Annual funding levels for programs such as the Port Infrastructure Development Program increased to $450 million in the last fiscal year – informs the latest report by America’s Infrastructure. These funds are allocated to the development of infrastructure in terminals, as well as improving access from the water and land. The report notes the significant impact of climate change on the operations of seaports. It turns out that recently “ports are increasingly struggling with the current and future effects of extreme weather events, which pose unique challenges to their coastal facilities, which are susceptible to sea level rise.”

Source: Descartes, 2025

As early as 2024, problems were noted in American ports resulting from the lack of agreements between workers and employers. The United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) reached a preliminary agreement in the first half of January 2025. The negotiated agreement will result in a 62% wage increase over six years for ILA employees and will be retroactive to October 1, 2024. Once finalized, the new agreement is expected to resolve labor issues in ports on the East Coast and the Gulf of Mexico.

But President Donald Trump’s tariff policies are introducing new risks to port logistics. Jackson Wood, director of industry strategy at Global Trade Intelligence, Descartes Systems Group, outlines what to watch for in U.S. port policy in 2025.

Wood notes that “U.S. container import volumes exceeded 2.4 million TEU in January 2025, up 5.1% from December and 9.4% from January 2024.” While the economy continues to look to Asia for supplies, “new tariffs on imports from China, the threat of potentially aggressive tariffs on Mexico and Canada in March, and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could pose challenges to global supply chains.”

New tariffs and other “protectionist” policies that affect trade will impact ocean trade in 2025, according to Descartes logisticians. – Depending on the Trump administration’s short- and medium-term priorities, broader and deeper tariffs applied to a wide range of goods could force U.S. importers to significantly restructure their supply chains, putting additional pressure on the global logistics infrastructure, U.S. logisticians say. That’s why the anticipated effects of the tariff policy fueled a surge in containerized imports to the U.S. in January, as companies braced for higher costs to import goods.

It turns out that despite the large volumes, delays at ports were not drastic. – Monthly TEU volumes were between 2.4 million and 2.6 million, Wood said. The oversupply of cargo at container terminals in imports “could strain ports and inland logistics until infrastructure improvements are made.” It predicts that “over the next seven months of rising containerized import volumes, maritime logistics operations at major U.S. ports could experience varying levels of [infrastructure] stress in recent months.” Despite this, transit delays at seaports were, but not significantly longer. Wood emphasizes that “January is the seventh month of increased volumes since container imports exceeded 2.5 million TEU in July 2024.”

Source: AFP, za France24

Import-driven economy
The American economy in the era of globalization is driven by imports. Both industrial and consumer goods. This affects port congestion and adherence to liner ship schedules. A significantly weaker supply of goods from Asia was already noticeable in April. This resulted in improved ship transit discipline on liner connections between Pacific Ocean ports. Descartes assumes that “waiting time for transit in ports may decrease.” This indicates an improvement in the efficiency of the global supply chain. The reason may also be a decrease in demand for goods and logistics services in 2025. Delays in transit in ports increased in January in eight of the 10 largest US ports. It is expected to be better in the following months of 2025. – ports seem to be coping with subsequent months of higher volumes with minor delays and preventing serious congestion and significant delays that they experienced during the pandemic – believes Wood. In the context of President Trump’s recent moves, an important statement is that “the United States is an import-driven economy, so economic health is an important indicator of container import volumes.” After the November Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Federal Reserve’s lending rate remained unchanged at 4.25%, while reported inflation was 2.9%. According to the November employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, while employers added 256,000 jobs. This is interesting information in the context of the April announcement of the US President’s assessment of the performance of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the need to replace him. Trump attacked the Fed chairman, calling him a “big loser” and “Mr. Too Late.” The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump may be looking for ways to shift the blame for the economic slowdown resulting from the applied tariff policy to Powell. The U.S. economy is also at risk from conflicts in the Middle East. The Houthi attacks, which have forced carriers to abandon the Suez Canal since the second half of 2023, have increased ocean freight costs. It has also taken longer for goods to travel between Asia and U.S. ports. Although the Houthi have declared a ceasefire on ships in the Red Sea, carriers remain cautious and hesitant to fully resume operations on the trade route. “If the Houthi ceasefire is lifted, carriers could reroute traffic around the Cape of Good Hope rather than reestablishing flows through the Red Sea. So far, the ceasefire has had minimal impact on cargo volumes or transit delays for ports on the East Coast and Gulf Coast,” Wood noted.

Source: Descartes, 2025

Ports on a Modernization Course
Trump’s tariff policy has not significantly affected investment activity in U.S. ports. Ports must adapt their terminals to handle larger ships and larger volumes of containers and bulk cargo. Port authorities use federal, state, local and private funds to finance port modernization. The needs related to maintaining the waterside access infrastructure are met from federal funds from the Harbor Maintenance Trust Fund (HMTF). These funds are used to dredge approaches and ports. HMTF collects user fees of 0.125% of the value of cargo transported. This fund is primarily used for dredging. But it has also been used to modernize port infrastructure. The Water Resources Development Act (WRDA) of 2020 mandated the use of the $10 billion HMTF by allocating $500 million for port investments in fiscal year 2021. In subsequent years, approximately $100 million has been spent annually on port maintenance. This amount is to be maintained through 2030. Since 2021, $17 billion has been invested in ports and inland waterways under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). Investment efforts have been made through programs such as the Port Infrastructure Development Program (PIDP), the Maritime Administration (MARAD), and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Truck Emissions Reduction Program. IIJA has provided $450 million annually to PIDP for the past five years. Prior to 2021, the program averaged $245 million annually. In addition to PIDP, MARAD administers programs for marine highways and small shipyards.

Since IIJA was enacted, the Department of Transportation (DOT), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have funded more than 1,060 port and waterway projects. EPA’s Clean Ports Program, which funds zero-emission port equipment and technologies, received $3 billion in funding under the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022. In the fall of 2024, EPA awarded $3 billion under the Clean Ports Program, while MARAD awarded $580 million under PIDP.

More than $200 billion for ports and waterways
The ASCE Bridging the Gap report estimates waterway modernization needs between 2024 and 2033 at about $45 billion. Of that, nearly $38 billion is for seaports and river ports. According to a study by the American Association of Port Authorities, public port authorities and their private tenants have planned capital investments of about $163 billion through 2025.

Ports are focusing on improvements to land and water infrastructure. Tenants of terminals and port properties have planned their own investments in terminal facilities, storage and security. Alternative fuel bunkering, especially LNG, is available.

Ports are regularly replenishing monitors that scan incoming containers for radioactive materials. The SAFE Port Act of 2006 required all container cargo entering the U.S. market to be checked for radiation. That’s why monitors have become a regular feature of container ports. U.S. ports are focusing on electrification, renewable energy and automation.

The latter has raised concerns among union representatives, but they have been convinced that automation can increase efficiency and eliminate much of the manual labor. It will be interesting to see how these actions will be received by operators of ships that have been placed on the restrictive lists of “controlled carriers”?
There are currently six carriers on the list: COSCO Shipping Lines (China), Orient Overseas Container Line Ltd (China), OOCL (Europe) Limited (China), Hede (Hong Kong) International Shipping Limited (China), HMM (South Korea), Anji Shipping (China) and Chipolbrok.