USA-EU – customs war may significantly reduce the supply of goods in seaports in export and import relations

The beneficiaries of the EU countries’ trade in goods with the United States were terminals in seaports. Quarterly, from 800 thousand to about 850 thousand tons are transhipped in European Union ports. For example, in the third quarter of 2024, 829.3 million tons of goods were transhipped in the main EU ports.

The reduction in trade in goods between the US and European countries may have a significant impact on the turnover of terminals in European seaports and the Atlantic ports of the United States.

In terms of total gross weight of goods, the United States of America (USA) remained the EU’s largest partner in maritime transport of goods for 10 consecutive quarters until Q3 2024. The United Kingdom was the EU’s second largest partner in maritime transport of goods in Q3 2024.

The next places in terms of cargo supply in ports were provided by Norway, Turkey and China. Among non-EU countries, the top ten included Brazil, Egypt, Russia, Canada and Nigeria. These countries completed the top ten countries ensuring operational activity of EU ports. In Q3, trade with the US recorded a 9.4% drop in turnover – Eurostat reports.

Source: Eurostat, 2025

Trump’s Deficit Irritating
The persistent trade deficit has irritated President Donald Trump. In value terms, exports increased and imports decreased between January 2023 and December 2024. This occurred in both exports to the United States and imports from the United States. Exports increased from €39.8 billion in January 2023 to €45.4 billion in December 2024.

Imports from the United States amounted to €31.3 billion in January 2023, falling to €27.5 billion in December 2024. In January 2023, the trade surplus amounted to €8.4 billion. The record result of €18.9 billion was reached in June 2024. In December 2024, it amounted to €17.9 billion.

The United States’ trade with other regions is more favorable. It should be noted that the United States is one of the world’s leading exporters. In 2023, the United States achieved exports worth 1,869 billion euros and had a 10.4% share of the world market. It ranked one-third in terms of exported goods. China dominates the export of goods worth (3,125 billion euros, 17.5%), and the EU countries come second with exports of goods worth 2,557 billion euros (14.3% market share). Japan (663 billion euros, 3.7%) and South Korea (585 billion euros, 3.3%) take the next places. These values ​​translate into the volumes of goods transhipped in ports and then transported by rail and road.

The United States is by far the largest importer in the world. In 2023, they imported goods worth EUR 2,934 billion, which meant that their share in global trade (largely maritime) amounted to 15.9%. The next major importers are the EU countries (EUR 2,523 billion, 13.7%), China (EUR 2,364 billion, 12.8%), the United Kingdom (EUR 732 billion, 4.0%) and Japan (EUR 727 billion, 3.9%).

Source: Eurostat, 2025

10 years of growth
Recently, European countries have clearly become dependent on LNG imports from the United States. Tankers with liquefied gas from the United States most often reached gas terminals and FSRUs in Germany, Greece, and Great Britain. In 2024, Poland received over 56% of tankers with liquefied gas cargoes from American terminals in Świnoujście.

Source: Kpler, IEEFA, 2025 r.

If we compare EU trade with the United States with EU trade with other non-EU countries, we can see that between January 2023 and December 2024, EU imports from the United States decreased by 12.3%. EU imports from other non-EU countries decreased by 12.9%. EU exports to the United States increased by 14.2%, while exports to other non-EU countries decreased by 1.2%. This was not always reflected in the supply of cargo at ports. The values ​​of exports and imports and exports were significantly affected by decreases or increases in the prices of energy raw materials.

Source: Eurostat, 2025

An interesting indicator will be the dynamics of changes in imports and exports of EU and US goods over the last 10 years. Taking 2013 as a reference point (index 100), we can see that exports from the EU were the lowest in 2013 (100), and the highest in 2022 and 2023 (144 each). Imports to EU countries were the lowest in 2016 (98), and the highest in 2022 (184). The export/import ratio for the EU was the lowest in 2022 (85%) and the highest in 2016 (116%).

Analyzing the same period and methodology of analysis, exports from the United States were the lowest in 2020 (90), and the highest in 2022 (131). The United States’ imports were lowest in 2016 (97) and highest in 2022 (145). The coverage rate in the United States was lowest in 2020 (59%) and highest in 2013 (68%), Eurostat statistics calculated.

Source: Eurostat, 2025

USA the largest partner
The strength of the United States as the EU’s largest trading partner in 2024 is illustrated by specific numbers. In 2024, the United States was the largest partner importing goods from the EU, with a share of 20.6%. It was followed by the United Kingdom (13.2%), China (8.3%), Switzerland (7.5%) and Turkey (4.3%). It was the second largest partner in the export of goods to the EU (13.7%). The first supplier of goods to the EU market in terms of value was China (21.3%), followed by the United States, the United Kingdom (6.8%), Switzerland (5.6%) and Türkiye (4.0%).

Source: Eurostat, 2025

In terms of value, over the past 10 years, growth in exports from EU countries to the US has been noticeable in almost all categories. Americans have clearly developed a taste for European food and beverages. Demand for energy and chemicals, vehicles and equipment, and other industrial goods has increased. As a result, in 2024, EU exports of processed goods (91%) had a larger share than primary goods (8%).

The most frequently exported processed goods were machinery and vehicles (39%), followed by chemicals (32%) and other processed goods (20%). In 2024, imports of processed goods from the US (69%) also had a larger share than primary goods (29%). The most frequently imported processed goods were machinery and vehicles (31%), followed by chemical products (25%) and other processed goods (14%).

EU – USA – energy dependence
After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the introduction of sanctions on Russian oil and gas, the United States partially entered the supply of energy resources. As a result, in 2024, oil and gas were the most frequently imported products from the United States. After them, medical and pharmaceutical products took the next place.

The structure of goods exports to the American market did not change substantially. The three most frequently exported product groups to the United States in 2024 were the same as before. Medical and pharmaceutical products, medicines, and cars and other vehicles dominated.

Source: Eurostat, 2025

Not all EU countries are direct beneficiaries of trade with the United States. And this is also clearly visible in seaports. The three largest importers from the United States to the EU were Germany, which imported goods worth €69 billion in 2024, the Netherlands (€68 billion) and France (€44 billion). Luxembourg (31.4%) had the largest share of the United States in imports outside the EU.

The three largest exporters to the United States in the EU were Germany (€161 billion), Ireland (€72 billion) and Italy (€65 billion). Ireland (53.7%) had the largest share of the United States in exports outside the EU.

These figures should of course be corrected by a more detailed analysis. After all, exports or imports measured in value are often the book value recorded in the country where the exporter or importer is based. Hence the extraordinary values ​​and shares in trade with the United States of Ireland and Luxembourg.

Poland, with exports worth 11,634 million euros and imports worth 12,125 million euros, is among the top ten trading partners of the United States from the EU market.

Donald Trup was particularly upset by the unfavorable trade balance. The unfavorable trade balance in goods exchange in 2024 between the EU countries and the United States was generated by a significant part of the EU countries. As many as 20 EU countries had a trade surplus with the United States.

The largest surplus was achieved by the German economy (92 billion euros), followed by Ireland (51 billion euros) and Italy (39 billion euros). Seven EU countries had a trade deficit with the United States, including Poland around 491 million euros). The largest deficit was in the Netherlands (over 24.7 billion euros), followed by Spain (around 6 billion euros).

The data provided may not reflect the actual trade in goods, as in the case of Ireland or Luxembourg. It should also be taken into account that the turnover of many EU countries is carried out through the ports of the Netherlands and the Netherlands. The trade turnover of the Netherlands is overestimated due to the so-called ‘Rotterdam effect’ (transit trade).

In this case, goods destined for other EU countries are unloaded in the terminals of Dutch ports and, in accordance with EU regulations, are recorded as EU imports by the Netherlands. This is a country where the goods are allowed to circulate freely. This case shows how important a role ports play in the trade and balance of payments of a country. Investments in seaports and access infrastructure always pay off in countries that take access to the sea seriously.