Ocean Bottlenecks: Will Europe’s Ports Run Out of Oil?

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By Marek Grzybowski

100% of crude oil reaches Poland by sea. 90% of the raw material was provided to our refineries by three countries: Saudi Arabia, Norway and the USA. Additional supplies came from oil fields exploited by Nigeria and Guyana. In 2024, Polish refineries processed approximately 27.6 million tons of crude oil – according to a report prepared by the Polish Organization of Petroleum Industry and Trade.

In the first quarter of 2025, the main suppliers of crude oil to Poland were sources from Saudi Arabia, Norway and the United States. Oil from Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Great Britain and Angola also appeared in fuel terminals. Saudi Arabia was still a key supplier of this raw material to Polish refineries.

Is the Strait of Hormuz the only bottleneck threatening crude oil supplies to Poland? Not necessarily. The US Energy Agency has identified many more hot spots that could threaten global oil trade. And regional oil trade. Including Poland.

Źródło: EIA , Vortexa

 

Siedem punktów zapalnych

EIA zidentyfikowały  siedem punktów decydujących o transporcie ropy naftowej szlakami morskimi.  Właściwie są to akweny znajdujące się na głównych szlaków handlowych, których przepustowość decyduje  o sprawności globalnego transportu morskiego ropy naftowej.

– Zakłócenia na tych szlakach mogą wpłynąć na ceny ropy naftowej i dodać tysiące mil tranzytu alternatywnymi trasami. Pod względem objętości tranzytu ropy naftowej Cieśnina Ormuz, wychodząca z Zatoki Perskiej, oraz Cieśnina Malakka (łącząca Ocean Indyjski i Spokojny) są najważniejszymi strategicznymi punktami newralgicznymi na świecie – stwierdza się w specjalnym raporcie  „World Oil Transit Chokepoints”, który został opracowany przez ekspertów U.S. Energy Information and Administration (EIA). W niniejszym raporcie omówiono również rolę Przylądka Dobrej Nadziei, który nie jest punktem newralgicznym, ale stanowi główny szlak handlowy i potencjalną alternatywną trasę wymuszoną w przypadku zablokowanie przejść statków na niektórych  akwenach.

– Punkty newralgiczne (wąskie gardła) definiowane są jako szczególne zwężenia położone na  powszechnie używanych globalnych szlakach morskich. Te wąskie przejścia (najczęściej cieśniny lub kanały) mają kluczowe znaczenie dla globalnego bezpieczeństwa energetycznego.

Source: EIA

Chokepoints
– Some chokepoints are so narrow that restrictions are imposed on the size of a ship that can pass through them. Chokepoints are a key element of global energy security because of the large volumes of crude oil and other liquids and liquefied natural gas that are transported through their narrow straits – emphasizes EIA in “World Oil Transit Chokepoints”.

Thus, recipients of energy resources are dependent on shipping routes that have chokepoints or waters controlled by terrorists. – The inability to transport oil through a major chokepoint, even temporarily, can lead to significant delivery delays and higher shipping costs, resulting in higher energy prices – emphasizes EIA and notes: “Although most chokepoints can be bypassed using alternative routes that significantly increase transportation times, some chokepoints have no viable alternative [oil shipping routes – MG]”.

In 2023, the total global supply of crude oil and other liquids was about 101.9 million barrels per day (bpd). In 2024, global production of crude oil and other liquid fuels was estimated at 102.76 million bpd. This is an increase from 2023, with non-OPEC liquid fuel production at about 70.4 million bpd.

The EIA estimates that about 76% of this amount was transported by sea. Tankers accounted for about 28.3% of the global fleet by deadweight tonnage in 2024, according to data published in UNCTAD’s latest “2024 Review of Maritime Transport.”

The critical point is the Strait of Hormuz. This strait is a relatively narrow body of water connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, and the rest of the oil transport routes. It has long been considered the most important hot spot for global oil supplies. Accounting for about one-fifth of global oil supplies to the world market. It turns out that this region is also important today for the operation of refineries in Poland.

Źródło: EIA

Hormuz on the Sea Routes
The Strait of Hormuz is a strait that allows the largest oil tankers, as well as LNG carriers, to pass through. Today, it is one of the world’s most important and critical choke points for maritime oil supplies. In 2024, oil flows through the strait averaged 20 million barrels per day (b/d), which is about 20% of global demand for this commodity. In the first quarter of 2025, oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were similar in size to the previous year.

Although we have not seen a blockage of maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as a result of recent tensions in the region, the price of Brent crude oil (the global benchmark) rose from $69 per barrel on June 12 to $74/Bbl on June 13. Brent rose to $77.27/Bbl on June 20, 2025. Over the past month, Brent is up 19.04%, but is still 9.35% lower than a year ago, according to the contract for difference (CFD) traded.

The EIA reports that “Oil and condensate volumes through the Strait of Hormuz declined by 1.6 million barrels per day between 2022 and 2024, only partially offset by an increase in petroleum product cargoes of 0.5 million barrels per day. The decline in oil transit through the strait partly reflects OPEC+’s decision to voluntarily cut oil production starting in November 2022.”

This decision has led to a decline in oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). In addition, there were disruptions to oil transport in 2024 around the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which connects the Arabian Sea to the Red Sea. This prompted Saudi Arabian oil company Aramco to shift oil transfers from the Strait of Hormuz to Red Sea ports. Oil reaches fuel terminals in western Saudi Arabia via Aramco’s East-West pipeline.

Źródło: EIA

Safer Through Pipeline
In addition, Gulf states have boosted regional oil demand and shifted some volumes to local markets in the Gulf. Crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025 accounted for more than a quarter of total global seaborne oil trade and about a fifth of global consumption of crude oil and petroleum products. In addition, about a fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade also passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024, mostly from Qatar, the EIA said in a new analysis.

Based on tanker tracking data released by Vortex, Saudi Arabia ships more crude oil and condensate through the Strait of Hormuz than any other country. In 2024, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil and condensate exports accounted for 38% of total crude oil exports from the Strait of Hormuz (5.5 million barrels per day).

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have pipeline infrastructure and terminals that can support oil exports and bypass maritime transport through the Strait of Hormuz. This could mitigate some disruption to global oil supplies if it becomes impossible (or unsafe) to transit the Strait of Hormuz by ship. The pipelines are currently not operating at full capacity. The EIA estimates that about 2.6 million barrels per day could be transported through the Saudi and UAE pipelines.

Saudi Aramco operates the 5 million barrel per day East-West Crude Oil Pipeline. It connects the oil processing center of Abqaiq near the Persian Gulf to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Aramco increased the pipeline’s capacity to 7 million barrels per day in 2019 by converting some of the pipelines used to transport natural gas to carry crude oil. In 2024, Saudi Arabia took advantage of this solution and pumped more crude oil through the East-West Pipeline to avoid disruptions to transport around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait.

Bypassing of the Strait of Hormuz
The UAE also operates a pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. This 1.8 million barrel-per-day pipeline connects onshore oil fields to the Fujairah export terminal in the Gulf of Oman. In 2024, UAE crude oil and condensate volumes through the Strait of Hormuz were 0.4 million barrels per day lower than in 2022. During this time, refinery upgrades were underway.

This allowed for more crude oil to be refined. These upgrades also allowed the UAE to increase its exports of lighter grades of crude. Recently, utilization of the pipeline to the Fujairah export terminal has increased significantly. As a result, the increased use of the pipeline for day-to-day operations has reduced the excess capacity available to redirect additional volumes bypassing the Straits of Hormuz.

Iran launched the Goreh-Jask pipeline and the Jask export terminal in the Gulf of Oman in 2021. The pipeline’s effective capacity remains at around 300,000 barrels per day. However, in the summer of 2024, Iran exported less than 70,000 barrels per day from the ports (Bandar-e-Jask and Kooh Mobarak) via the Goreh-Jask pipeline and ceased loading after September 2024.

The EIA estimates that in 2024, 84% of the crude oil and condensate and 83% of the liquefied natural gas that moved through the Strait of Hormuz went to Asian markets. The main recipients were China, India, Japan and South Korea. The Strait of Hormuz accounted for a total of 69% of all seaborne crude oil and condensate shipments to Asia through the Strait of Hormuz last year. These markets would probably suffer the most from disruptions in supplies from the Persian Gulf.

It can be assumed that as a result of even a partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions on maritime transports through this route, oil will reach EU countries and Poland via alternative routes. We are safe, but we should be careful and provide ourselves with alternative sources of supply. From the above analysis, it can be concluded that there should be no shortage of oil in the Northern Port.