In anticipation of the butterfly effect, global maritime transport operators are making more cautious decisions about investing in low-emission fuels. Leaders have “shifted away from sustainable fuels in favor of traditional fossil fuels, moving in the opposite direction of previous sentiment.” Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and heavy fuel oil (HFO) have become the focus of attention among commercial fleet managers this year, according to the latest “ICS Maritime Barometer Report 2024-2025,” published in June of this year.

Seaport authorities can breathe a sigh of relief. Currently, the order book for ships with alternative fuel engines seems impressive. However, fossil fuels and LNG systems have topped the list of preferred fuels for commercial vessels. Right behind liquefied natural gas, shipowners are prioritizing HFO.

New fuel types, including biofuels, methanol, nuclear energy, wind energy, and electric propulsion, have seen their profitability rankings and interest from shipowners decline. This is illustrated by the latest data developed by DNV, which Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, chief executive of DNV Maritime, reports on the “Riviera” portal.

Source: DNV, 2025

“This trend is likely to be a strong indicator of an expected recession, as the market becomes more price-focused and seeks stability and predictability in an increasingly volatile market,” the ICS report concluded.

With continued political uncertainty and economic volatility, and a growing chorus of business leaders and global economists predicting recession, this desire to cling to familiarity may prevail for the foreseeable future.

The recent results of the MEPC 83 meeting in London have added a new dimension to the innovative activity of shipowners and investors in merchant tonnage. The 83rd session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) took place from April 7-11, 2025.

2,000 ships powered by gas and alternative fuels

“Shipowners ordered ships adapted to run on alternative fuels at a record level in 2024, signing contracts for 515 new vessels, a 38% increase year-on-year. As a result of the boom in new vessels in 2024, the global fleet of alternative fuel-capable ships in service and on order now exceeds 2,000,” Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen told Riviera.

Contract information presented by DNV’s Alternative Fuels Insights (AFI) platform was described as “promising” by DNV Maritime CEO Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, who urged shipowners to “continue to push forward” if shipping is to meet the IMO’s greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets and overall ambitions for decarbonizing maritime transport.

In April of this year, MEPC 83 approved the world’s first global pricing mechanism for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from international shipping. The regulations are expected to be formally adopted at the upcoming MEPC meeting in October. This mechanism is intended to encourage (or compel?) the use of zero- and near-zero-emission fuels and energy sources. The global introduction of a pricing mechanism will undoubtedly shake up the maritime transport market and become a competitive tool.

LNG infrastructure in seaports. Source: Sea-LNG.org

“Naturally, when political volatility is high, leaders become more risk-averse. There is a desire to turn to familiar, trusted, and more predictable methods of operation. This is also evident in the shift towards LNG as the most cost-effective fuel option for the next decade,” states Emanuele Grimaldi, ICS Chairman and owner of a leading operator, in a commentary on the report.

In 2024-2025, the availability of low-emission fuels in seaports was the most important factor influencing tonnage investments in ships using “green” fuels. “For the first time in four years, the issue of fuel availability has overtaken the need to expand infrastructure for supplying low-emission and zero-emission fuels in ports as the highest priority,” the authors of the ICS report note. Shipowners investing in ships with alternative fuel engines expect a significant increase in supply to meet demand for new fuels.

The shipping sector has become more engaged in seeking the cooperation required to ensure fuel availability in the required quantities. This is because maritime transport likely better understands the challenges and necessity of fuel availability, ICS believes. Cross-sectoral, public-private platforms involving ports, such as Clean Energy Marine Hubs, are important. These initiatives aim to reduce the risk of investments needed to produce low- and zero-emission fuels for supply to the maritime transport sector.

 

CEM Hubs Supports Shipowners
The Clean Energy Marine Hubs initiative aims to reduce risk and accelerate the industrial-scale production of low-carbon fuels for transport and use. The initiative was proposed by the International Chamber of Shipping and the International Association of Ports and Harbors. It operates as the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM). It is a first-of-its-kind, cross-sectoral public-private platform co-led by an industry task force composed of CEOs and energy ministers – Clean Energy Marine Hubs | Clean Energy Ministerial.

In June of this year, China and Malta joined the Clean Energy Marine Hubs initiative (CEM-HUBS) to accelerate the production, export, and import of low-carbon fuels worldwide. China is the first Asian country to join the initiative. Malta is the second European country to join the initiative, following Greece in 2024. Poland has not joined CEM-HUBS, which is significant news for global players in the maritime transport market.

Nine countries are currently part of the initiative. CEM-HUBS is co-led by the governments of Canada and the United Arab Emirates, with active participation from Brazil, China, Greece, Malta, Norway, Panama, and Uruguay. With no countries in the Baltic Sea region, Poland could emerge as an innovator and leader in this market.

Esben Poulsson, co-chair of the CEM-HUBS Steering Committee and chair of the Clean Energy Marine Hubs Private Sector Advisory Group, commented: “The addition of two new countries to CEM-HUBS is a powerful vote of confidence in the initiative. At a time when decarbonization is at the top of the agenda of leaders around the world, now more than ever we need to unite and align across the entire marine energy value chain to enable the creation of clean energy hubs in ports.”

Further action will be planned for the Clean Energy Ministerial Meeting (CEM-16) in Busan, South Korea, in August. Energy ministers will meet to discuss how to establish a global renewable fuels infrastructure and the role of shipping and maritime infrastructure as an enabler of the transition. Following CEM-16, work will progress towards COP30, which will take place in Belem, Brazil, in November, according to CEM-HUBS.

Source: “ICS Maritime Barometer Report 2024-2025”

Disruptions in Fleet Decarbonization
The implementation of decarbonization in maritime transport may be disrupted by actions by the Trump administration. ICS states that “Some concerns about fuel availability may stem from assessments of the US administration’s tariffs on China and the potential negative impact on the country’s strong electrolyzer industry.”

This technology is crucial for the production of low- and near-zero-emission fuels, such as hydrogen. China currently accounts for over 40% of global investment decisions in electrolysis projects. The question remains whether the US tariffs imposed on China will impact this market.

The US is not the only country that has announced a return to increased oil production. This trend is unlikely to be halted by sanctions imposed on Russia, attacks on Iran, or tensions in the Persian Gulf. Therefore, a domino effect can be expected from the decisions of the US administration and OPEC+ countries. Governments deciding on fossil fuel production will likely follow the United States’ lead to avoid being squeezed out of supply markets.

IEA data shows that investment in fuel supply in 2024 was still largely dominated by fossil fuels. However, significant amounts are still being allocated to clean energy investments worldwide. The IEA reports that global investment in clean energy technologies and infrastructure reached $2 trillion in 2024. In June of this year, the IEA reported that “Global energy investment is expected to rise to a record $3.3 trillion in 2025.” This is despite headwinds from heightened geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, according to a new IEA report. Clean energy technologies are found to attract twice as much capital as fossil fuels.

Źródło: „ICS Maritime Barometer Report 2024-2025”

Shipowners Choose LNG and LPG Systems
Maritime transport managers report a steady increase in interest in the availability of low- and zero-emission fuels. The ICS Maritime Barometer 2024-2025 survey reports an increase from a weighted score of 3.85 in 2021-2022 to 4.03 in 2024-2025. The importance of infrastructure used to supply alternative fuels in ports also increased. It reached a high level last year (4.08 in 2023-2024) before declining to 4.01 in 2025.

Regulations from the IMO and other international organizations remain a key factor in decarbonization progress. This year, regional and national regulations overtook global frameworks in importance (3.75 compared to 3.68). The ICS Maritime Barometer 2024-2025 study has broken down these factors—previously noted as “global and regional regulation” for 2023-2024—to reveal more precise insights into the pressure points influencing financial decisions in shipping.

“The prioritization of regional and national regulation is likely the result of fragmented maritime emissions policies—such as the US focus on energy security through fossil fuels versus the EU’s pursuit of alternative fuels—leaving globalized shipping supply chains in a state of fragility,” the ICS Maritime Barometer 2024-2025 highlights.

Źródło: „ICS Maritime Barometer Report 2024-2025”

Will Maersk trigger the butterfly effect?

However, LNG dominates the list of profitable fuels of the future. “The selection of LNG by maritime industry leaders as the most profitable fuel for the next 10 years – with HFO in second place – almost certainly reflects a desire for greater predictability and stability,” explain the authors of the ICS report. As the world becomes increasingly unstable, with predictions of a global recession and stock market volatility, traditional fuels offer a sense of stability.

Ports have a well-organized distribution and bunkering infrastructure, and the operating costs of all bunkering elements are also predictable and reliable. Drewry analysts predict that LNG will be profitable as a maritime fuel until at least 2035 under the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and FuelEU Maritime.

Maersk recently made a warning move, deferring orders for methanol-powered ships in favor of gas-powered container ships, Tradewinds reported on May 8th. Maersk has informed Huangpu Wenchong Shipbuilding, a subsidiary of China Shipbuilding and Shipping Corporation (CSSC), that it will postpone the order. Industry observers consider this move surprising, as Maersk placed the order only a few months ago.

Shipping companies are increasingly ignoring alternative fuel engine ships from their contracts. Engine rooms with LNG systems still dominate order books. Countries are abandoning or postponing investments in green methanol production due to high processing costs, lack of economies of scale, and technological bottlenecks. As a result, commitments to supply green methanol to the market from 2025 appear unpromising. Whether Maersk’s decision will trigger a butterfly effect on the maritime transport industry and investment in seaports remains to be seen.