Persian Gulf GPS Signal Jamming Warning for European Union
GPS jamming caused ships’ AIS signals to falsely show them on land in Iran as they passed through the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Windward Maritime AI™ Platform
By Marek Grzybowski
A vital source of oil and gas supplies to Europe and Asia could be blocked. Iran has announced it may block the Strait of Hormuz. However, a greater threat appears to be when ships lose their GPS signal and disable their identification systems. According to Windward, a ship traffic analysis firm, since the beginning of the conflict between Israel and Iran, approximately 1,000 vessels in the Persian Gulf have experienced interference with satellite signals.
The sudden and severe disruption of navigation systems began with the outbreak of war in the Middle East. The Israeli-Iranian war has global implications, affecting virtually all those relying on oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf oil fields.
Automatic Identification System (AIS) information is increasingly pointing to unlikely locations, such as Iranian ports, the Omani desert, and the Dubai area, due to widespread GPS interference in the region, Windward reports.
About 20% of the world’s oil and gas supplies are shipped through the Strait of Hormuz by tanker. While the Strait remains operational for commercial traffic, the risk of tanker collisions and even partial blockages has significantly increased. Shipowners, insurers, oil and gas charterers and traders, refineries and ports, and other consignees must assess supply chain risks.
Fleet operators face the challenge of assessing the safety of maritime transport. Persistent electronic disruptions have led to delays, diversions, and significant changes in vessel planning strategies.
Challenges for Captains and Navigators
Ship captains and navigators face particular challenges. In mid-June, tankers collided south of the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane for oil buyers, including Poland. The collision resulted in both vessels bursting into flames. One of them, the Front Eagle, with a deck area the size of three football fields, appeared to be ashore in Iran on June 15, according to data from the Kpler data platform, Reuters reported.
According to data generated by Windward, an average of 972 ships per day experienced GPS jamming between June 15 and 18. The disruption peaked on Tuesday, affecting 1,155 ships, with the lowest number recorded on Monday, at 693 ships.
AIS signals from a ship en route to Saudi Arabia jammed. Source: Windward Maritime AI™ Platform
Among the approximately 900 ships attacked on Thursday were at least 120 tankers over 10,000 tons, including 27 very large crude carriers (VLCCs) and 24 container ships. Between June 13 and 15, the AIS signals of approximately 1,000 ships were found to have been manipulated.
“The problem these days is that most ships use digital systems, so if your GPS is jammed, you have no real form of navigation other than your own suggestions,” said Jim Scorer, secretary general of the International Federation of Shipmasters’ Associations, as quoted by Reuters.
“If a ship’s crew deliberately jams signals, it’s called spoofing, and it can indicate illegal behavior, such as trying to conceal cargo or a destination.” If a third party interferes with signals, as is happening in the Persian Gulf, it’s called jamming, Reuters quotes Dimitris Ampatzidis, an analyst at Kpler. The practice is becoming increasingly common in conflict zones as some militaries seek to conceal the location of warships or other potential targets.
Trzy akweny zakłóceń
Windward zidentyfikował trzy odrębne akweny zakłóceń GPS:
1. W obrębie wód terytorialnych Kataru.
2. Na wodach międzynarodowych wzdłuż szlaków żeglugowych do i z Iraku i Kuwejtu w drodze do Cieśniny Ormuz.
3. W obrębie szlaków rozdzielających ruch podczas tranzytu przez cieśninę Ormuz.
Elektroniczne zakłócenia przekierowują sygnały AIS do obszarów w pobliżu Asaluyeh i Bandar Abbas w Iranie, a także u wybrzeży Omanu. Sygnały niektórych statków są również przekierowywane w pobliżu Dubaju w Zjednoczonych Emiratach Arabskich, gdy przepływają przez Ormuz.
Tranzyty ropy i gazu z terminali paliwowych na zatoce Ormuz zmniejszyły się w czerwcu br. o 20% w ciągu tygodnia, wynika z ustaleń Joint Maritime Information Center (liczone są tylko statki o pojemności powyżej 1000 ton brutto). W sumie 118 statków przepłynęło przez Cieśninę 16 czerwca, w porównaniu do 147 zbiornikowców tydzień wcześniej, podało w komunikacie JMIC. Tranzyty 17 czerwca wyniosły 114. Centrum informowało, że „utrzymuje się wysoki poziom zakłóceń elektronicznych”.
W dniach 11–18 czerwca wczesne wykrywanie Windward zidentyfikowało ponad 35 zbiornikowców LPG stojących na kotwicy na wodach Omanu. To wzrost o 82% w stosunku do oczekiwanych poziomów. Mediana czasu zawinięcia do portu 89 zbiornikowców w Arabii Saudyjskiej w tygodniu kończącym się 19 czerwca spadła do 19 godzin. Jest to o 37% mniej niż w poprzednim tygodniu. Jest to najkrótsza mediana czasu od rozpoczęcia monitoringu w sierpniu 2021 r. – podają analitycy.
– Zazwyczaj nie ma zakłóceń w Cieśninie Ormuz, a teraz jest ich dużo – powiedział Ami Daniel, dyrektor generalny Windward. – Kulminacją tego wszystkiego jest wyższe ryzyko. To gorący obszar… jeśli nie dokonasz geolokalizacji, jest większe prawdopodobieństwo, że będziesz miał wypadek – zaznacza Ami Daniel.
Freight and Insurance Rise
The reaction from operators, brokers, and insurance companies following the outbreak of the Israel-Iran war was swift. According to one ship broker, war risk premiums for tankers entering the region have risen from $0.20 to $0.80 per barrel. This applies to both crude oil, LNG, and product tankers. For a VLCC, this translates to an additional $1.2 million per voyage. Freight rates have nearly doubled in just three days as shipowners adjust prices to reflect the increased risk.
Owners are responding by demanding partial freight payments upfront or renegotiating charters mid-voyage. One Asian tanker operator issued a fleet-wide safety warning.
The Baltic Exchange spot index for VLCCs on the Middle East-Persian Gulf-China route rose on Thursday after stabilizing on Wednesday. It closed at $57,758 per day on Thursday, a 154% year-on-year increase to a 16-month high, according to Lloyd’s List, citing Baltic Exchange.
For product tankers, the TCE Baltic index for LR2 on the Middle East-Persian Gulf-Japan route was $53,836 per day, a 148% year-on-year increase. These rates appear to be the highest possible. Thursday’s LR2 rate fell $1,157 per day, a 5% decrease from Tuesday’s peak. In the LPG tanker segment, the TCE Baltic index for VLGCs on the Middle East-Persian Gulf-Japan route was $71,577 per day on Thursday, a 33% year-on-year increase. This is the highest daily rate in the bulk cargo segment.
“When we think about what’s happening in the Middle East, we’ve had a bit of a rate crunch across asset classes and segments,” said Jefferies shipping analyst Omar Nokta, as cited by Greg Miller of Lloyd’s List Intelligence. “VLGCs are the only ones that have gone from strength to even greater strength. That tells us the VLGC market is strong and close to a real takeoff,” Nokta said.
Warning to the European Union
The opinion of Ed Finley-Richardson of Contango Research is particularly important for EU. He stated in a statement to Lloyd’s List: “I think that while everyone is focusing on crude oil tankers, the LPG tanker index will likely be even higher.” The Middle East and Gulf VLGC index stabilized on Friday compared to Thursday’s rate of $71,577 per day, which was the highest reading since June 4, 2024.
It’s important to remember that Qatar is the world’s third-largest LNG exporter, and Poland is also a customer. Last week, the Qatari government asked that ships carrying LNG and LPG wait at anchorages outside the Strait of Hormuz until they are ready for loading at terminals in the Persian Gulf. While southbound LNG vessels were tracked without delay, at least one northbound LNG vessel bound for Qatar temporarily changed course. Two others remained anchored for four days before transit.
“VLGC indices clearly show the impact of the Israel-Iran conflict and the threat to the Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East and Persian Gulf Index is currently $17,488 per day higher than the US and Persian Gulf Index, more than seven times the spread from just a week ago,” emphasizes Greg Miller of Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
On June 17, the Front Eagle, a VLCC bound for China, collided with another tanker off the coast of Khor Fakkan in the United Arab Emirates, hours after its navigation system experienced severe and prolonged GPS interference while transiting from Iraq through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The operator said the collision was caused by an “unspecified navigational error” and added that it would no longer accept charters requiring its vessels to enter the region.
The area of disruption and the collision site of the tanker Front Eagle. Source: Windward Maritime AI™ Platform
Windward emphasizes that in the Strait of Hormuz, jamming GPS signals—rather than hijacking ships or blocking commercial traffic—appears to be the preferred gray zone tactic of aggression by regional actors, as it threatens ship traffic but does not directly impede maritime transport.
This conclusion should also be taken seriously in the Baltic Sea. Experiences from the Persian Gulf should now be analyzed by operators of crude oil, LNG, and LPG tankers, as well as product carriers operating in the Gulfs of Finland and Bothnia, the Gulf of Gdansk, and the Danish Straits. Before the first wind farm is built in the Polish exclusive economic zone, the effects of large ships operating in conditions of satellite signal disruption must be anticipated today.