Political instability, cyberattacks and logistics storms are the main threats to shipping

Geopolitical instability, cyberattacks on shipping operators, and disruptions in global logistics chains are the main threats to the transport of goods by sea, according to maritime industry leaders in the “ICS Maritime Barometer Report 2024-2025,” released in June of this year. The survey surveyed senior executive decision-makers from across the industry, nearly 43% of whom are shipowners and 30% are ship managers. They highlighted the key factors influencing their business decisions.

The authors of the “ICS Maritime Barometer Report 2024-2025” note that, “Perhaps most importantly, this instability also fuels concerns about a global recession, which is making business leaders more cautious and risk-averse.”

GOBankingRates’ C-Suite Outlook 2025 report found that the prospect of a global trade war has become the most pressing and urgent concern for CEOs, while rising economic tensions between the US, the European Union, and China could have the most negative impact on trade. About half (46%) of CEOs are cautious about a potential economic slowdown, although this percentage has decreased from 53% last year. It’s important to note that this attitude may fluctuate in the coming months as volatility continues.

Source: „ICS Maritime Barometer Report 2024-2025”

Wars and Destabilisation in the Global Markets
“Maritime transport operates in a rapidly changing world where political unpredictability has become the new norm. Not only have [military] conflicts intensified around the world, but we may also face intensified trade wars if US-China relations continue to deteriorate,” Emanuele Grimaldi, ICS Chairman and owner of a leading shipping company, noted in a commentary on the report.

Emanuele Grimaldi also noted significantly that “Financial markets are volatile at a time when significant investments are needed to ensure a secure and greener future for our industry.”

Even at a time when three major container shipping alliances control almost 90% of the liner shipping market, and as consolidation among tanker and bulk carrier operators continues, managers state: “This geopolitical instability is creating and reshaping our operating environments, increasing caution [in business decision-making – MG] and uncertainty regarding commercial decisions.” “Trade relations are clearly changing, and trade routes are being modified. All these factors have costly implications for our industry and the global economy, increasing the likelihood of a global recession,” warns Emanuele Grimaldi.

For the second consecutive year, political instability remains the greatest threat to operational activities and business planning according to shipowners and fleet operators. “This should come as no surprise, given the challenges posed by ongoing conflicts and economic shocks. This trend reflects growing concerns about the stability of global geopolitics,” note the authors of the ICS Maritime Barometer Report 2024-2025.

Source: „ICS Maritime Barometer Report 2024-2025”

Cyberattacks are the second area of ​​concern for merchant fleet managers. But that’s not all. Increasing administrative burdens and trade barriers also contribute to this. Such drastic changes in perception of the market environment occurred last year.

“Malicious military attacks have been pushed down from the top threats, but by a small margin, still ranking fifth in terms of the greatest threat this year,” states the ICS Report. In the latest study, the authors identified four main threats instead of three. They justify this by arguing that “administrative burdens and trade barriers are very close together on the risk axis, and these factors could easily align as related issues.”

Declining Trust in Government

Analyzing the research results over a longer period (the study has been conducted over four years), they conclude that “one notable trend was a marked decline in maritime leaders’ confidence in their ability to manage issues related to geopolitical and regulatory challenges.”

Source: „ICS Maritime Barometer Report 2024-2025”

Shipowners and merchant fleet managers are struggling to plan for growth. It noted that “a growing number of maritime leaders yearn for a return to the familiar and predictable amidst growing volatility and geopolitical uncertainty.”

It noted that the US administration’s decisions are not local disruptions but “have far-reaching implications for trade and shipping.” The consequences for global trade and supply chains caused by rising fees for Chinese-operated and Chinese-built ships are unpredictable.

These issues were raised by industry representatives, including the International Chamber of Shipping (ICS), at a public Section 301 hearing in March 2025. This was a meeting organized by the US Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) as part of its Section 301 investigation.

It’s not just the US administration’s actions that are causing headaches for global logistics operators. Shipping operators are closely monitoring government changes and their new policies, particularly protectionist measures. New challenges are being added to the problems caused by escalating geopolitical conflicts. It has been noted that over 70 countries have experienced a change of government. This means that the administrations controlling approximately half the world’s population will be replaced in 2024.

“It’s no surprise that political instability tops the list of the greatest threats this year,” the authors of the ICS Report state. As global political dynamics continue to evolve at a rapid pace, the risk of political polarization and new tensions also increases. Furthermore, the full consequences of the high tariffs imposed by the US administration are only just beginning to manifest. This is already visible at US ports. We write about this here.

Source: „ICS Maritime Barometer Report 2024-2025”

Political Instability

Political instability is one of the top risks, reported by managers for the third consecutive year. This risk is clearly evolving from a very low risk with high trust in governments in 2021-2022 to the highest risk and lowest trust identified in the “ICS Report 2024-2025.”

Previously, environmental factors were assumed to be a greater risk exposed by leaders operating in the maritime transport market. However, “continuous progress and attention devoted to addressing related risks related to climate change and decarbonization goals appear to be strengthening confidence in technical solutions.”

Positive regulatory changes, training, and technology developments have contributed to this. Investments in new ships and dual-fuel engines, fleet replacement with a more modern fleet, and new technologies and tools introduced to increase operational efficiency have led to positive changes in maritime transport.

Leaders operating in maritime routes “are recognizing new challenges and clearly feel better prepared to address them.” Extreme weather events, environmental regulations, and regional market instability continue to rank as threats to fleet operations.

Politics and cyberattacks drive higher insurance premiums

In response to geopolitical disruptions, interest in trade disruption insurance (TDI) products has increased. It has been observed that the vast majority of Protection & Indemnity clubs are adapting their pricing strategies to changing markets and local tensions with global implications. Due to the increase in large claims in the global marine insurance sector, premiums are expected to rise in 2025. S&P Global expects the International Group of Protection and Indemnity Clubs (IG) to raise rates by an average of nearly 5% in 2025, similar to renewals in 2024.

Protracted conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan have reintroduced war as a significant risk that insurers must assess and quantify. This has led many insurers to either dramatically increase premiums or opt to remove war insurance from their policies. Credit structure and risk appetite are also increasing among insurers in the insurance market, which continues to shift as geopolitical tensions increase, according to a report by Gallagher Specialty on structured credit and political risk insurance.

Source: „ICS Maritime Barometer Report 2024-2025”

Cyberattacks continue to pose a significant problem for maritime businesses and rank second among maritime transport risks. “This should come as no surprise, given several recent high-profile cyber incidents affecting large maritime organizations, as well as broader, smaller-scale incidents,” note the authors of the ICS 2024-2025 Report.

Additionally, there are the deliberate shutdowns of Identification Systems by shadow ships and the jamming of satellite signals. The increased number of reports of ships experiencing GPS interference and jamming prompted the International Maritime Organization (IMO), along with the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), and the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), to issue a joint statement of “serious concern.”

Cybersecurity as a top risk is also reflected in the Allianz Risk Barometer 2025, which ranks cybercrime (cybercrime, IT networks, service disruptions, malware/ransomware, data breaches, fines and penalties) as the top risk.

Commercial shipping and seaports are clearly feeling the shifting geopolitical landscape. Maritime transport and ports are experiencing significant volatility, disruptions in cargo deliveries, and congestion at container terminals. A shadow fleet remains active along oil supply routes. Today, merchant fleets are threatened not by weather conditions but by unpredictable governments, cybercriminals, and terrorists.