Changes in supplies on the main maritime LNG routes in the first half of 2025 [REPORT]
By LNG imports to the European Union increased by 18.5% in the first half of 2025. During the same period, Chinese ports pumped over 20% less LNG than in the first half of 2024. Despite the decline in LNG demand in China, we observed a rebound in the first half of 2025, with global exports increasing by 3% year-on-year to 210.5 million tons, according to Banchero Costa, based on LSEG data.
The largest LNG exporter is currently the United States, which accounted for 24.8% of supplies to the maritime gas transport market in the first half of 2025. Supplies from Qatar’s LNG terminals provided Qatar with a 19.6% share of the maritime supply market. Australia introduced 18.8% of LNG to the global market through its gas terminals.
Between January and June 2025, the United States exported 52.2 million tons of LNG, a remarkable 20.2% year-on-year increase. In the first half of 2024, LNG tankers departed US ports carrying 43.4 million tons of liquefied gas.
Major LNG importers. Source: Banchero Costa Research
Qatar exported 41.2 million tons of LNG in the first half of 2025, representing a 6.5% year-on-year increase. Australia pumped 39.5 million tons of LNG into tankers between January and June 2025, recording a 3.5% year-on-year decline in exports. Russian LNG terminals loaded 15.1 million tons of LNG onto tankers, which also delivered gas to EU countries.
Japan imported 33.5 million tons of LNG in the first half of 2025, representing a slight increase of 1.2% year-on-year. South Korea imported 24.6 million tons through LNG terminals in the first half of 2025, representing a 2.3% year-on-year increase. India pumped 12 million tons of LNG through its terminals, an 8.2% decline compared to the first half of the previous year.
China is changing supply markets
China imported 30.7 million tons of LNG in the first half of 2025, a 21.3% year-on-year decline. Last year, LNG terminals in China received 39 million tons. Greg Molnar, a gas analyst at the International Energy Agency (IEA), determined that several key factors contributed to the decline in Chinese demand for LNG. Lower domestic demand proved to be a key factor, although gas consumption only fell by about 1% in the first half of 2025. However, the increasing share of renewable energy sources in the energy supply has reduced pressure on gas consumption. The price relationship between gas and coal, which constitutes a significant part of China’s energy mix, also contributed to the decline in demand for imported LNG.
Chinese LNG imports. Source: Global LNG Hub
Lower liquefied natural gas supplies were offset by higher pipeline gas flows. “Supplies of Russian gas transported through pipelines increased by almost 25% (or almost 4 billion cubic meters) in the first half of 2025, and the Power of Siberia pipeline is currently operating at maximum contracted capacity,” Molnar reports.
China has revived domestic gas production. Production from domestic fields increased by approximately 6% in the first half of 2025. This was not a significant rebound in production, as domestic demand did not anticipate a surge in domestic gas production. Demand for gas from storage operators was also lower. After a relatively mild winter, China ended the heating season with storage facilities almost 50% full. This limited replenishment in the second quarter of 2025.
Changes in China’s gas import mix from US supplies were already noticeable in early 2025. The escalating trade war between China and the United States altered natural gas trade. This impacted supply tensions and LNG price volatility. But it also benefited LNG customers in the EU.
Sino-US LNG gas games
Speculation about changes in the LNG supply market had been growing since February, when China responded to the Trump administration’s threats and increased tariffs on Chinese goods. China responded by imposing a 15% tariff on US natural gas supplies. Since then, tariffs have increased, with China imposing a 125% tariff on US goods, and US officials responding with a 145% tariff.
Jason Feer of Poten and Partners, global director of business intelligence, said at the time that “a direct tariff on LNG in China does not prevent buyers from importing US gas, but it weakens the competitive advantage that has strengthened China’s LNG export sector,” according to Jacob Dick, Senior Editor, LNG, Natural Gas Intelligence.
It should be noted that Chinese energy companies have been not only key customers but also investors in U.S. LNG projects since 2016. Growing Chinese demand contributed to the launch of LNG export facilities in Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi owned by Cheniere Energy Inc., says Jacob Dick.
Major LNG importers. Source: Banchero Costa Research
Richard Kinder, executive chairman of Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI), predicted that rising tensions with China would not impact demand for U.S. LNG or the profits of U.S. infrastructure operators. Kinder noted that, “First, China hasn’t imported U.S. LNG since February, yet feedstock demand is breaking records, averaging 15.5 billion cubic feet per day in the first quarter and approaching 17 billion cubic feet per day in the last few days,” according to Jacob Dick.
KMI’s pipelines serve several LNG export terminals in Louisiana and Texas. The company is also planning a project in Mississippi that will allow for exports of 10.85 million tons per year. Kinder said that companies like KMI expect that China’s demand for U.S. LNG will be “more than offset” by Europe and other Asian countries. And American exporters didn’t miscalculate.
EU Increases LNG Imports
The European Union is currently the world’s largest LNG importer, accounting for 25.2% of global LNG imports. In the first half of 2025, the EU pumped 53.3 million tons of liquefied natural gas through LNG terminals. This represents an 18.5% year-on-year increase compared to the 45 million tons received in the first half of 2024. This is also slightly above the record 51.6 million tons imported in the first half of 2023.
The UK imported 5.6 million tons of LNG to the British Isles market in the first half of 2025, a remarkable 32.8% year-on-year increase, compared to only 4.2 million tons imported in the first half of 2024. However, record imports were recorded in the first half of 2023, when terminals in the British Isles pumped 10.8 million tons of LNG into pipelines.
It is worth recalling that in 2022, LNG imports to the European Union increased by 67.6% year-on-year to 100.1 million tons. This was the result of the withdrawal of gas imports via pipelines from Russia and the actions of EU countries that decided to quickly diversify their gas supplies. In 2023, LNG imports to the EU increased by 1.7% year-on-year to 101.8 million tons. In 2024, imports to the EU decreased significantly, down by 18.4% year-on-year to 83.1 million tons. This was still significantly above the 59.7 million tons imported in 2021 and the 62.8 million tons imported in 2020.
After declines in 2024, EU imports increased in the first half of 2025, as was evident at European LNG terminals. Greg Molnar believes that four key factors contributed to the very strong demand growth. The higher demand for gas in the EU was driven by a nearly 5% increase in gas consumption (8 billion cubic meters) in the first half of 2025.
EU LNG imports. Source: Global LNG Hub
Storage replenishment
The main reason was the lower supply of renewable energy. Pipeline gas imports to EU countries decreased significantly. Pipeline deliveries from Russia to the EU decreased by almost half compared to last year. Deliveries decreased by 6.5 billion m3 due to the suspension of transit through Ukraine. Pipeline deliveries from Norway were 3.5% lower (almost 2 billion m3).
EU countries decided to replenish storage after the winter period. Gas injection into EU storage facilities increased by 35% year-on-year since April. This translates to almost 7 million m3 added to the market in absolute terms. This is still almost 20 billion m3 below last year’s stock levels.
In the first half of the year, pipeline gas exports to Ukraine increased. Flows from the EU to Ukraine increased almost twelve-fold (almost 2 billion m3). Ukraine needs to replenish its historically low stock levels, explains Molnar.
The United States accounted for nearly 90% of additional LNG imports to the EU, increasing its share of total LNG supplies to just over 55%. Most of this additional LNG comes from Plaquemines LNG, which alone met almost 30% of the additional EU LNG demand, according to Banchero Costa Research analysts.
In the first half of 2025, the European Union imported 29.6 million tons of LNG from the United States, a 42.5% year-on-year increase compared to 20.8 million tons in the first half of 2024. Supplies from Russia to the European Union decreased by 8.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 to 8 million tons from 8.8 million tons in the first half of 2024. Russia now accounts for 15% of total LNG imports to the EU. Imports from West Africa increased by 108.4% in the first half of 2025 to 5.4 million tonnes.