India in an Ocean Clinch: Seaborne Imports from Russia or Seaborne Exports to the US
By India faces a significant dilemma. Maintaining oil imports and good trade relations with the United States is a challenge and a serious challenge on the political highway. Indian exporters must acknowledge that US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs. The United States announced an additional 25 percent tariff on imports of goods from India, increasing the total tariff to 50 percent. The US justifies this by maintaining imports of Russian crude oil.
“This decision surprised most experts because New Delhi was one of the first countries to begin trade negotiations with Washington, and Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi have repeatedly praised each other in public statements and called each other friends,” notes Megha Bahree of Al Jazeera, emphasizing that “Brazil is the only country subject to tariffs as high as India.”
It should be noted that both countries are members of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). Today, it is a political and economic organization consisting of ten countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.
The tariff conflict between India and the US could have significant consequences for Indian exporters. “What are the options and risks for New Delhi?” asks Raju Gopalakrishnan of Reuters. India is likely to be among the countries most affected by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, with tariffs on Indian imports rising to 50% if an agreement between the two countries is not reached within three weeks. Two weeks ago, tariffs on Indian products were expected to be no higher than 25%.
Source: India Today Group
Oil from Russia to India
India is once again the fourth-largest importer of crude oil by sea. After China, the EU, and ASEAN, India has become a significant player in the global market, accounting for 11.2% of global seaborne crude oil trade in the first half of 2025, according to Banchero Costa Research.
Oil imports by sea to India have been growing steadily for several years. In the January-December 2023 period, they increased by 1.6% year-on-year to 228.1 million tons. In the following year, 2.5% more crude oil was pumped from ships through fuel terminals, increasing imports to 233.7 million tons.
In the January-June 2025 period, imports to India increased by 2.2% year-on-year to 121.1 million tons. In the first half of 2024, 118.4 million tonnes of oil were delivered to India by tankers.
Source: Banchero Costa Research
Of particular interest, however, are the shifts in supply sources for Indian refineries. Approximately 42% of crude oil unloaded in India in the first half of 2025 was transported in VLCC tankers, approximately 36% in Suezmax tankers, and approximately 21% arrived in Aframax vessels. The largest crude oil transshipment ports in India this year are: These were: Jamnagar (30.6 million tons in H1 2025), Vadinar (27.1 million tons), Paradip (16.3 million tons), Mundra (9.4 million tons), Mumbai (9.4 million tons), Cochin (8.5 million tons), Visakhapatnam (7.4 million tons), New Mangalore (5.3 million tons), Chennai (4.8 million tons), and Mangalore (1.0 million tons), according to Banchero Costa analysts.
Russian Carrot
Crude oil imports by sea from Russian ports grew dynamically. Indian operators imported both Russian and non-Russian crude, such as Kazakh crude. After a weak 2022, in the January-December 2023 period, India received 126.6% more crude oil from Russian ports year-on-year than in 2022. 75.4 million tons of crude oil were unloaded at fuel terminals, compared to only 33.3 million tons a year earlier.
In 2021, India imported only 4.1 million tons from Russia, making imports in 2023 almost twenty times higher than before the war in Ukraine. In 2024, Indian refinery imports increased by a further 8.6% year-on-year to 82 million tons. In the first half of 2025, 1.7% more crude oil arrived from Russia via tankers to India year-on-year than in the first half of the previous year. 41.2 million tons of crude oil were unloaded at Indian ports, five times more than in the first half of 2022.
Russian ports have become the second largest source of crude oil shipped to India by sea. Russian offshore fuel terminals loaded 34% of the crude oil that reached India between January and June 2025. 45.6% of the crude oil was delivered to India by tankers from the Persian Gulf. West African producers (only 6.2%) and American producers (5.6%) have small shares in the supply. Shipments from the Persian Gulf to India in the first half of 2025 are expected to reach 55.2 million tons (down -0.1% year-on-year), significantly lower than the 73.4 million tons in the first half of 2022.
American Stick
The Indian government has reacted sharply to the 50% tariff on Indian imports to the US. This could significantly hamper trade with the US, which will be felt by operators of services between Indian and US ports. However, those who rely on maritime trade and producers of exported goods are hopeful that the situation will improve, as closed-door talks are underway.
In New Delhi, the US trade team is expected to arrive by ship, but will soon visit the Indian capital. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, however, said on Thursday, without referring to the tariffs, that he was willing to “pay a heavy price” for not compromising on the welfare of the country’s farmers, dairy sector, and fishermen, Reuters quoted the Indian Prime Minister as saying. India is ready to lower tariffs on some American agricultural and dairy products, such as almonds and cheese.
Source: Rich Robust
Reuters reported late last month that Indian state-owned refineries had stopped using Russian crude. Financial considerations were the deciding factor, as Russia stopped offering steep discounts. Political pressure and Trump’s pressure on India also played a role. Indian Oil (IOC.NS), Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL.NS), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL.NS), and Mangalore Refinery Petrochemical (MRPL.NS) have stopped buying Russian crude. Analysts worry that prices will rise sharply when Russian crude runs out.
India is negotiating with the US, but it is also taking steps to cooperate with Russia and China, Reuters notes. “India doesn’t want to appear weak,” Farwa Aamer, director of South Asia initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute in New York, told Al Jazeera. In his view, “India has a global presence, and Modi wants to maintain India’s global ambitions. Therefore, India will emphasize that national security drives its foreign policy.”
Robert Rogowsky, professor of international trade at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, said he expects “very creative diplomacy” in the “short term” as India and the United States attempt to rebuild relations despite tensions. “Strong individuals like Modi will inevitably lead to change and counterchange,” Megha Bahree quoted Rogowsky as saying to Al Jazeera.
Źródło: India Today Group
Oil Imports, Diamonds Exports
The situation is complex, as before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s planned visit to New Delhi this year, India’s National Security Advisor was in Moscow. On Tuesday, Russia announced that the two countries discussed further strengthening defense cooperation “in the form of a particularly privileged strategic partnership.”
India has also intensified political and economic cooperation with China. This is a radical shift in relations following the 2020 border conflict. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit China in a few weeks for the first time since 2018. Modi, Putin, and Xi Jinping may meet at a regional security conference. The Indian Defense Minister and Foreign Minister recently visited China.
“High tariffs on Indian goods affect some of India’s most valuable and valuable exports to the US, from pharmaceuticals and diamonds to textiles and tea,” emphasizes Dipu Rai of “India Today.”
India has a $45.7 billion merchandise trade surplus with the US, making Washington’s tariff decision a significant blow to exporters. Consequences will be felt by all participants in the maritime logistics chain, including port and vessel operators, freight forwarders, agents, and insurance companies.