Containers on new routes and in the storms of tariff wars
By A downward trend has been observed in global container shipping. This is reflected in global statistics and analyses, despite signals from some ports of increased transshipment. While some ports saw increased supply in the first half of the year, and a near-record month for container traffic in July was observed, the slowdown is undeniable, says Simon Heaney, Senior Manager, Container Research, Drewry.
Analysis of the latest data on loaded container traffic by Container Trades Statistics Limited (CTS) provides ample evidence that US customs and trade policies have altered the flow of loaded containers on global sea lanes and at terminals.
At first glance, everything looks quite rosy, notes Heaney: “July 2025 was the second-busiest month on record, with 16.6 million TEUs moving between container ports worldwide, only 20,000 TEUs less than the record set in May of this year.” As a result, July 2020 was 5.1% better year-on-year than last July.
He believes that “year-on-year comparisons are not as reliable an indicator of market activity as they once were due to volatility caused by geopolitical events.” He believes the market needs to be adjusted “to obtain a better picture of the trend.” A 12-month analysis shows that global growth in loaded container trade “reached an inflection point in April and has weakened in each of the last four months, as evidenced by available statistics.” In July 2025, average supply increases fell to 4.9% from 6.5% at the end of 2024.
U.S. Containers in Disarray
CTS statistics show that White House policies have contributed to North America’s decline to the bottom of the year-to-date growth charts for both container imports and exports. While President Trump may have intended to reduce U.S. dependence on foreign goods, this certainly wasn’t at the expense of American exporters.
After seven months, North American imports were up 0.9%, while exports were down 2%. During the summer, U.S. importers were bailing out supplies from the beginning of the year. In their latest analysis, Descartes statisticians state that “in August 2025, container import volumes to the U.S. totaled 2,519,722 TEU, representing a 1.6% increase compared to August 2024 and a 17.6% increase compared to August 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.”
To support demand, American importers recorded a second consecutive month of high containerized import volumes this summer. This was the second-highest monthly figure this year and slightly below the record high of 2,622,465 TEU achieved in May 2022.
As a result, year-over-year containerized cargo imports in August 2025 are 3.3% higher than during the same period in 2024. Analysts believe the American market needs imported goods, and this “confirms the long-term trend of stable demand despite political uncertainty.”
Import towarów w kontenerach przez USA. Źródło: Descartes Datamyne™
Containerized Goods Imports from China
Imports of goods from China are falling in August due to the extended tariff suspension. Containerized goods imports from China to the US are expected to fall to 869,523 TEU in August 2025, according to Descartes Datamyne analysts. This represents a 5.8% month-on-month decline and a 10.8% year-on-year decline in containerized goods shipments, down 15% from the record high of 1,022,913 TEU in July 2024. China’s share of total US imports declined slightly in August to 34.5% from 35.2% in July.
“High tariffs have caused many key categories of Chinese imports to experience double-digit year-on-year declines,” Descartes Datamyne™ emphasizes in its analysis. The largest decline, by 43.9%, was recorded in aluminum shipments and aluminum products (HS-76). Clothing (HS-61, HS-62) and footwear (HS-64) also saw a decline of over 20% compared to August 2024. Furniture and bedding imports (HS-94) saw a smaller decline, with a 14.3% decline.
Toys and sporting goods (HS-95, down 17.4%), electrical machinery (HS-85, down 14.1%), and vehicles (HS-87, down 13.4%) are not reaching the US in containers from China in the same quantities as in 2024. Iron and steel products (HS-73) declined by 18.2%. Only products containing plastics (HS-39) saw an increase of almost 10%, increasing their share to over 13% of all loaded containers (in TEUs) originating from China.
US Exports and Imports. WTO Projection. Source: Statista, based on: WTO
China’s economy is holding up well
Overall, “China’s export growth in August is slowing due to US tariffs and trade tensions,” Ken Moritsugu of the Associated Press reported from Beijing two days ago. China defended itself against President Donald Trump’s restrictions by aggressively entering other markets, including Russia. As a result, China’s exports reached $321.8 billion in August, a 4.4% increase compared to the same month last year.
This was a decrease compared to a 7.2% increase in July. At the same time, imports reached $219.5 billion, a 1.8% increase. China’s high trade surplus has become a source of contention with its main trading partners, including the United States and the European Union. Cheap Chinese imports are a boon for consumers, but they could lead to job losses in other countries’ industries, analysts emphasize.
In the first eight months of the year, China exported $785.3 billion more goods than it imported from other countries, according to monthly data from China’s customs bureau. This comes despite President Donald Trump imposing additional tariffs of 30% on Chinese imports since taking office earlier this year.
Regional export dynamics of containerized goods. Source: Drewry, citing CTS
Containers Resilient to Tariff War
China withdrew from even higher tariffs after China responded with its own import tariffs. The tariffs imposed by both sides, and the possibility of further increases, are impacting bilateral trade. Chinese exports to the United States fell 33% in August to $47.3 billion, while imports from the United States fell 16% to $13.4 billion. The tariff war is clearly visible at container terminals in both countries.
August’s volumes are the result of a 90-day extension of the US-China tariff truce. The US government is maintaining a 30% tariff cap until mid-November. “Despite ongoing adjustments in individual sectors, trade volumes continue to indicate China’s key role in US supply chains,” notes Heaney. However, with the November deadline approaching and negotiations ongoing, the prospects for China’s share of US imports remain sensitive.
The US market did not cause any major disruptions in global goods trade. Trade volumes were sustained by demand from other markets, primarily for goods produced in China. Year-to-date, container cargo supply has increased by 4.5% compared to 2024 and by an impressive 12% compared to 2023, CTS analysts note.
Global container shipments exceeding 16 million TEU for three consecutive months represent the first such increase in the CTS database. This demonstrates the market’s resilience to the US “tariff revolutions,” despite earlier concerns. Despite high cargo turnover, the Global Price Index (GPI) fell slightly by 2 points in July, reaching 84 points, compared to 118 points during the same period last year, according to CTS’s September report.
Chinese Rare Earth Production. Source: www.voronoiapp.com
Rare Earths Increase Sea Container Transport
The global market is supporting activity in local markets. According to CTS, “imports in July 2025 showed growth or stabilization across all regions, both month-on-month and year-to-date.” North American imports rose 1.4% compared to June, marking the second consecutive month of recovery after declines in April and May 2025. This is also the first year-on-year increase since March 2025, suggesting possible stabilization in the region after months of uncertainty.
Europe also posted strong results. Despite the economic slowdown, imports of containerized goods increased 2.87% month-on-month and 7% year-to-date. Europe’s dependence on the Far East, the Indian subcontinent, and the Middle East is clearly visible.
Exports to the EU rose 10.4% to $46.8 billion, while imports from the 27 member states fell slightly to $22.8 billion, according to data from the Chinese customs office. Overall, Chinese exports grew at their slowest pace since January-February, when they rose by just 2.3%. The first two months of the year are reported together to compensate for disruptions caused by the long New Year holiday break, Moritsugu explains.
A significant export commodity arriving in containers to the United States and the European Union is rare earth elements. They are often found in finished products, solar panels, and components for cars, computers, smartphones, and machinery. China’s rare earth exports rose month-on-month to $55 million in August, compared with $41 million in July, but fell 25.6% compared to the same month last year. Selected elements, which are resistant to high temperatures, are essential in many products, such as washing machines, cars, and fighter jets, Moritsugu emphasizes.
China dominates the global market for rare earth processing, and restrictions on their exports in April temporarily halted production at some factories in Europe and the United States. Threats of production closures have been issued in some industries.
This issue became a major topic of the round of trade talks between the US and China held in London in June. China agreed to increase the number of rare earth export permits in exchange for the US lifting restrictions on the sale of chip design software and jet engines to China.
Containerized imports to the US by country. Source: Descartes Datamyne™
2025 better? than a “strong” 2024.
Analyzing container transshipment results year-to-date, the regions that recorded strong import growth were the Indian subcontinent and the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and South and Central America. These regions saw turnover increase of over 8%.
Sub-Saharan Africa led the way with 16% growth year-to-date, driven primarily by exports from the Far East. These developments underscore the increasingly important role emerging “smaller” markets are playing in global trade, according to analysts at Container Trades Statistics Limited.
They report that “on a year-on-year and month-on-month basis, exports increased in all regions except North America, which recorded a decline of -2% year-on-year and -3% month-on-month, driven by a decline in imports from the Far East.”
In July 2025, the Far East achieved impressive export volumes, reaching 10.4 million TEU. This is the highest monthly figure recorded for this region in the CTS database. Exports from the Far East consistently exceeded 10 million TEU for three consecutive months, and the main recipient regions: the Indian subcontinent and the Middle East, sub-Saharan Africa, and South and Central America, saw significant gains from this turnover.
At the end of July 2025, global container shipments were exceptionally high. Although 2024 was a successful year, 2025 exceeded these results, CTS emphasizes. New growth centers have emerged. Smaller and developing markets have opened new maritime trade routes. These are absorbing additional cargo and playing a significant role in the development of maritime container transport.
Part of this activity can be attributed to China’s attempt to re-export goods essential to the US and other markets. Therefore, record transshipments were observed in short periods at new container terminals in Asia and Latin America.