The Arctic: Geopolitical Climates in a Military Context
By The Arctic route has been used for many years to transport goods, and oil and gas continue to flow by tanker to Western Europe and other countries to this day. Many books have been written about the rigors of maritime travel in Arctic waters. However, climate and geopolitical changes are introducing new conditions and criteria for assessing these vast areas.
Recent years have been particularly dynamic, both in terms of changes in log cover and the political situation. Increasingly interesting developments are emerging at both the regional and global levels. Rear Admiral Dr. Czesław Dyrcz and Commander Dr. Rafał Miętkiewicz of the Polish Naval Academy have therefore chosen the right topic and time by publishing a book entitled “The Arctic: Geography, Climate, and Geopolitics.”
The topic is “extensive,” as the Arctic covers at least 21 million km². It is even estimated that the Arctic may encompass approximately 27 million km², as its boundaries are defined by sea and land temperatures. The Arctic’s boundaries are defined at sea by the July 5°C isotherm and on land by the 10°C isotherm. This means that, despite warming, the Arctic, geographically speaking, encompasses a large area of ice, the ocean, the surrounding seas, and the landmasses of the Northern Hemisphere. It is therefore an area of direct economic and political interest to many countries.
Depending on the season, the area and thickness of Arctic sea ice fluctuates. As a result of climate change, the ice melts and breaks off in entire walls. During winter, its area averages approximately 15 million km² and reaches a thickness of about 5 m. By the end of summer (mid-September), the ice area around the North Pole decreases to approximately 3.5 million km², with an average thickness of 2 m to 3 m. One-year ice can be 1 to 1.5 m thick.
The Arctic includes the Arctic Ocean with its islands, the northern regions of Europe and North America, and the Asian part of the Russian Federation. In Europe, the Arctic includes the northern territories of several countries, including Greenland, as well as the northern territories of Russia, Canada, the United States (Alaska), Norway, Sweden, and Finland. This is only a formal dimension of the geopolitical system.
The geopolitical situation in the Arctic is changing with the discovery of new resources, increased access to them due to warming, improved navigability, and the availability of ports and islands for longer periods than before. The military perception of the region has also changed following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the growing interest in strengthening the United States’ military presence in Greenland.
Źródło: Domena Publiczna, CIA World Factbook
The Arctic, 4 Million Inhabitants
“Currently, the Arctic is dominated by three phenomena: a changing climate, new geopolitical conditions, and the far-reaching consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Arctic is home to nearly four million people who are struggling with the effects of climate change, which is altering their lives and livelihoods. The Arctic is also taking on a new military significance,” Czesław Dyrcz and Rafał Miętkiewicz note in the introduction to the book.
Increased economic and military activity in the region can already be expected. This is evidenced by the installation of ship surveillance and identification systems in the seas, straits, islands, and the mainland. Satellite observations and “traditional” surveillance activities by maritime administration services are no longer sufficient. Politics are becoming increasingly heated as the Arctic lands and waters warm. Just as with the shadow fleet vessels that use international waters to transport oil, ships using international waters and space to conduct activities inconsistent with signed conventions may appear in the Arctic Ocean today.
Esther D. Brimmer, James H. Binger Senior Fellow in Global Governance at the Council of Foreign Relations, points this out. She explained in a speech before the U.S. House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security: “At the heart of the Arctic region lies the Arctic Ocean, which is beyond the jurisdiction of any state. The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea creates an international legal regime for the oceans, including the Arctic Ocean. Every Arctic country, including the United States, claims its own 200-mile exclusive economic zone. Many countries and companies are interested in access to Arctic natural resources. The Arctic is rich in both living and mineral resources. Managing access in the delicate Arctic environment is a significant challenge, and agreements on this matter are possible.”
Appetite for Fish and Natural Resources
It is emphasized that Arctic waters are threatened by “illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing, which depletes natural resources and vulnerable wildlife.” However, it is important to remember that the oceans are also rich in mineral resources and could be a site for deploying weapons, including nuclear weapons.
American ships USS Connecticut, USS Hartford, and HMS Trenchant in the Arctic during ICEX 2018 exercises (photo: US Navy Flickr, Darryl I. Wood)
“With the accession of Finland and Sweden, seven Arctic states became allies. Today, the Arctic comprises seven NATO member states and the Russian Federation,” Dyrcz and Miętkiewicz note. They emphasize the military aspect of this interest in the Arctic.
In the book’s introduction, they state that “broadly understood issues related to the Arctic enjoy scientific and educational interest among the Polish Naval Academy community, including its academic staff and students of the Faculty of Navigation and Ship Armament and the Faculty of Command and Maritime Operations.” Research is conducted by both scientists (Prof. Andrzej Makowski and Dr. Czesław Dyrcz) and is the subject of the diploma theses of navigation students.
Polish ships participate in allied exercises in Arctic waters almost every year. “With the evolving geopolitical situation and climate change, our presence in the Arctic will grow,” predict Dyrcz and Miętkiewicz, writing: “This book was written with the students of the Polish Naval Academy, teaching and research staff, and the crews of Polish Navy ships in mind.”
Arctic Climates
The publication consists of an introduction, two substantive chapters, a summary, and lists of names, figures, and tables. Chapter 1 focuses on the geography and climate change of the contemporary Arctic. This chapter discusses the geographical characteristics and seven geographical ranges that define the concept of the Arctic. It also provides a historical overview of the discoveries, exploration, and exploitation of the resources of these regions.
It describes the Arctic Ocean, coastal and shelf seas, as well as islands, rivers, and straits. The reader receives an up-to-date description of climate change. This is important because the Arctic is warming much faster than the rest of the globe. In the zone north of the 64°N parallel, the average rise is more than twice as high as globally. The long-term rate of sea level rise since satellite measurements began has changed from 2.13 mm per year in 1993–2002 to 4.77 mm per year in 2014–2023.
The Arctic climate is described (polar maritime climate and polar continental climate). The former is of particular interest to sailors and navigators, characterized by violent, stormy, and wet winters and cool, cloudy summers. Therefore, navigation in Arctic waters in a changing climate is described, along with its current conditions and future possibilities. The chapter concludes with an illustration of the impact of climate change on human activity in the Arctic. It describes the changes in the exploitation of natural resources, fishing and hunting, commercial shipping, Arctic tourism, sailing, military activity, and scientific research.
Chapter 2 covers an explanation of geopolitical issues in the Arctic, including economic and military aspects. These issues are considered in the context of factors shaping the strategies of countries interested in using resources, waters, and territories. As part of the work on the monograph, the authors identified a group of countries interested in active operations in the Arctic.
Arctic Council, source: www.pmfias.com
Arctic Interests
For obvious reasons, these are countries whose waters directly border the Arctic region (Great Britain, Scotland). Countries seeking to gain a position to influence Arctic affairs (China) are also described. The activities of countries not bordering the Arctic but interested in a presence in the area are also described. The authors note that these include Germany, France, Japan, South Korea, as well as India and Brazil. It is also noted that there are also medium-sized countries in the Arctic, such as Poland, Spain, and Turkey. The Arctic policy of the European Union is also discussed.
The reader is also provided with a description of the operation of the main Arctic organizations (the Arctic Council, the Council of the Baltic Sea States, and the Barents Eurarctic Council). A significant part of the chapter is an analysis of the Arctic policy directions of the stakeholder states, as the Arctic could become a “potential area of ’proxy conflict,'” the authors note, arguing that “changes occurring in the Arctic itself are impacting significant areas of the world (primarily in climatic and economic terms).”
The monograph provides an up-to-date description of the activities of the previously mentioned states interested in an active presence in the Arctic. The chapter contains a currently relevant analysis of “potential areas of dispute that we may encounter in the Arctic in the coming decade.” Various criteria and factors that could be sources of conflict are considered. Issues of military nature, competition for access to resources, and control of navigation are highlighted. The main axes of potential disputes, around which the actions of states in the Arctic region will be played out, are defined.
The authors emphasize that “Historical transformations in the security architecture of the Baltic Sea require a change in the perspective on military security issues in the Baltic region, taking into account the Arctic dimension.” For this reason, this study should be of interest to a wider audience interested in learning more about the potential and actual impact of climate and geographic changes in the Arctic. These changes have a global impact, but they can also rapidly shift the balance of power regionally and even locally. Any undesirable turbulence in the Arctic could be felt at the naval port in Gdynia.