Maritime transport in geopolitical storms in 2025 and 2026 [REPORT]
BSanctions, tariffs, and trade wars increased the risk in global shipping in Q3 2025. Merchant fleets have entered uncharted waters. Record-breaking fraudulent practices by shadow fleet operators have been recorded, according to Windword’s Q3 2025 summary. Oil and gas price manipulation, tariff wars, and non-tariff wars threaten global consequences, according to reports and forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Drewry, and Vortex.
Flag changes, deactivation of identification systems, and jamming of satellite systems are triggering local storms that could end in global catastrophe. But these are not the only plagues that could befall global markets.
– The maritime industry is currently on the front lines of unprecedented experimentation triggered by foreign policy turbulence. An experiment that has led to new extreme situations manifested in fraudulent flag changes, GNSS manipulation, and other types of fraudulent behavior [by operators evading sanctions – Ministry of Economy] – warn Windword analysts.
The fleet of oil and gas tankers that circumvents sanctions operates virtually beyond the reach and influence of international law. Shadow fleet vessels have become a real threat to maritime security. There are already public reports of shadow fleet vessels using drones to disrupt the airspace of Baltic ports and beyond.
– The number of false flag vessels has doubled in the last nine months. This is due to new sanctions imposed by the EU, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Since 2023, we have already had a record fleet of vessels subject to sanctions, exceeding 1,000 vessels in the third quarter of 2025.
The Case of “Clean Vision”
“When the UK government imposed sanctions on 51 ships in October, seven liquefied natural gas tankers were among them, including the Clean Vision (IMO 9655456). The Maltese-flagged Clean Vision and two other related LNG carriers, Clean Ocean and Clean Planet, were Greek-owned and not affiliated with the Russian state-owned shipowner Sovcomflot, like the other tankers,” explains Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a maritime intelligence analyst at Windworld and an expert in shadow fleets, unfair shipping practices, and security.
As Europe and the UK seek to curb the Kremlin’s revenue from energy sales, more and more LNG carriers are being targeted by regulators. The reason for imposing sanctions on Clean Vision and other vessels was that they were “engaged in activities that have the purpose or effect of destabilizing Ukraine or undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty or independence of Ukraine,” according to the British government’s website https://search-uk-sanctions-list.service.gov.uk/ [The Russia (Sanctions) (EU Exit) Regulations 2019, October 15, 2025].
The basis for imposing sanctions is that the LNG carrier Clean Vision is transporting goods from Russia to a third country that could contribute to the destabilization of Ukraine or undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty or independence of Ukraine. Windward first noticed this LNG carrier in 2021. Currently, 15 LNG carriers are subject to sanctions from Western countries, in addition to Clean Vision, which regularly transports liquefied natural gas from Russian Arctic ports. Yamal LNG has been under surveillance for four years and is covered by the 19th Sanctions Package.
Germany abandons Russian gas
A few days ago, even the German government broke down and decided to withdraw from the agreement to receive gas from Yamal LNG. Germany intends to invoke “force majeure” to implement the 19th EU sanctions package. This provides the state-owned company SEFE with a legal basis to withdraw from the Russian LNG import contract, according to Germany. This news was announced publicly by the Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie (Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy).
These are the first concrete steps the German government intends to take to cease imports of Russian LNG through the state-owned company SEFE (Securing Energy for Europe). SEFE was formed from Gazprom Germania, a subsidiary of Russia’s Gazprom. It was nationalized by the German government in 2022 following the invasion of Ukraine. However, it continued to import gas.
Following its privatization, SEFE became one of the largest European recipients of Russian liquefied natural gas from the Yamal LNG project. Under the agreement, the company is obligated to receive approximately 2.9 million tons of LNG annually from the Yamal LNG project, with deliveries scheduled until 2040. The contract does not include an early termination option. Therefore, the company could also use sanctioned LNG carriers, such as Clean Vision, to import gas.
British Sanctions on Companies and Vessels
Windward identified Clean Vision as conducting ship-to-ship transfers to avoid arrest (seizure) in an EU port. The gas was pumped onto a sanctioned LNG carrier off the coast of Murmansk on March 30-31, 2025. This was just days after the EU imposed a ban on STS operations for liquefied natural gas on March 27.
The UK government imposed sanctions on vessels operated by Novatek (a sanctioned carrier). This affected ships loading gas at Arctic 2 LNG and from other LNG terminals in Russia.
In September 2024, five LNG carriers were sanctioned, including those exporting cargoes from Arctic 2 LNG. The same sanctions package that affected Clean Vision also affected Chinese LNG terminals that imported LNG from Arctic 2 LNG terminals. The EU and the UK are beginning to impose secondary sanctions on logisticians operating throughout the LNG distribution chain. It is worth noting that the EU briefly imposed sanctions on three LNG carriers as part of the 17th sanctions package in early 2025. The sanctions were withdrawn after the Japanese owner pledged to no longer use them in transport from the Yamal terminals.
Windword notes that “it is becoming increasingly difficult to assess the geopolitical threat” because regulatory bodies (imposing sanctions) are acting inconsistently. This allows for “a circumvention of sanctions, given the deepening policy divergence between the EU, the UK, and the US.” For two consecutive quarters, “the United States has not imposed any new sanctions on Russian maritime transport, instead intensifying its ‘maximum pressure’ campaign on Iran,” analysts state.
In September, the EU and the UK jointly lowered the crude oil price ceiling for Russia in the G7 by 15%. Starting in January, the EU ban on imports of petroleum products refined from Russian crude oil will cover approximately 200,000 barrels of gasoline per day. This ban aims to curb money laundering in India and Turkey, which processed Russian crude and sold it as products to EU countries.
45% more ships were sanctioned in Q3 2025. Source: Windward Maritime AI™ Platform
Over 1,000 ships on blacklists
Over 1,000 ships have already been added to sanctions blacklists, yet they effectively operate without significant restrictions or oversight. In Q3 of this year, a total of 311 merchant ships used for illegal trade with Russia were added to the lists of restricted vessels. Currently, the list announced by the United Kingdom includes over 540 ships, and the European Commission list includes 480 ships. Of these, 369 ships are on both sanctions lists. “The United States has not imposed any Russia-related sanctions on shipping since January of this year,” Windward notes in its report.
The record increase in ships on sanctions lists in the last quarter was due to the launch of the 18th EU sanctions package against Russia. Additionally, over 200 ships are subject to sanctions imposed by the United Kingdom. Over 60 ships used for oil transport and trade with Iran have been targeted by the U.S. Treasury Department’s restrictive action. The sanctions are not limited to tankers. Among the 60 ships is a fleet of over 20 container ships calling at Iran. This indicates that the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control is currently investigating Iranian maritime trade beyond oil and gas, Windword analysts point out.
The quarterly increase in the cumulative number of ships subject to EU, UK, and US sanctions in the third quarter slowed to 15%. A record increase in sanctions was recorded in the second quarter of this year, when the number of ships on sanctions lists increased by 35%. As a result, the total number of ships subject to sanctions is 3.7 times higher than a year ago. Compared to the second quarter of 2025, in the third quarter of this year The number of companies on the lists doubled. A Windword analyst found that “58% of the newly sanctioned companies were based in two countries – the United Arab Emirates and the Marshall Islands.”
Identification of interference in Nakhodka Bay (left) in Q3 2025 and recent signal disruptions off the coast of Qatar. Source: Windward Maritime AI™ Platform
GPS Jamming
In the third quarter of 2025, over 11,600 vessels worldwide were affected by GPS jamming. In the previous quarter, 13,000 vessels reported such incidents. In the third quarter of 2025, a new GPS jamming hotspot was identified in Nakhodka Bay, near a Russian port in the eastern Pacific Ocean. In Nakhodka Bay and the nearby Kozmino loading terminal, over 600 vessels reported being affected by satellite jamming.
Based on vessel reports, the number of GPS jamming incidents in the third quarter of 2025 increased by 5-10% compared to the first quarter of this year. This means that this threat persists and poses a serious threat to navigation and safety in port areas and heavily trafficked shipping lanes. Sailing in conditions of satellite signal loss “has become an inherent element of maritime risk,” notes Windword.
Oil Production and Prices. Forecasts to 2026. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
Oil Exports and Prices
Preliminary data collected by Vortexa show that crude oil and condensate exports averaged 43.1 million barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025. This exceeded pre-pandemic levels for the first time, as OPEC+ producers withdrew from supply constraints. September exports averaged 45.5 million barrels per day – the highest since April 2020, when Saudi Arabia briefly flooded the market during a short-lived price war that ended with a collapse in global demand.
In its latest report, the EIA states that “Global crude oil production will reach a seasonal low of 81.6 mb/d in October, nearly 4 mb/d below the July record.” This is due to maintenance work and intensified attacks on Russian pipeline and export infrastructure.
Refinery throughput will increase by 600,000 b/d in 2025 and 460,000 b/d in 2026, to 83.5 mb/d and 84 mb/d, respectively, according to the EIA. Refining margins rose across all sectors in September following disruptions in Russian oil processing and exports. Spot freight rates for the largest crude carriers temporarily exceeded $100,000 per day last month.
Inventory buildup has driven China’s seaborne oil imports up 13% year-over-year in Q3 2025, reaching an estimated 10.8 million barrels per day. Tensions between the US and China resulting from the tariff and non-tariff war contributed to the global turbulence in the seaborne general cargo trade in Q3 2025.
Container Movements Between Regions. Source: Container Trade Statistics, Drewry
Disruptions at Container Ports
China compensated for the decline in US imports with increased exports to Asian countries and the EU. The increased supply of cargo caused disruptions in vessel turnaround times. According to Windward, last quarter, the largest disruptions were observed in the ports of Rotterdam, Yantian, Busan, and Singapore. This is also reflected in reports and charts from Container Trade Statistics and Drewry.
In Rotterdam, the number of vessel turnaround disruptions monitored by Windward increased by 51% quarter-on-quarter and was 35% higher year-on-year. The main factors causing disruptions included a 39% increase in insufficient turnaround time, a 35% increase in turnaround delays, and a 24% increase in the number of line and vessel changes for container transport.
Average delays at loading ports decreased in Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Rotterdam, but increased in Busan and remained stable in Singapore. In Singapore, container handling delays increased by 28% compared to the previous quarter, and delays in delivery routes increased by 20%.
100% more companies were sanctioned in Q3 2025. Source: Windward Maritime AI™ Platform
Shadow Fleets Grow
Windward identified that 64% of the shadow fleet is currently subject to sanctions. This percentage increases to 71% for crude oil tankers over 80,000 dwt. Ownership remains unknown for 60% of these vessels. Russia, Panama, and Comoros dominated as the three main flag registries used by the shadow fleet. Over the past quarter, the number of Panama-flagged shadow vessels decreased by 25%.
Comoros, Gambia, and Sierra Leone were the leading registries used by shadow fleet owners, along with Iranian and Russian operators. Ships flying the flags of Liberia, the Marshall Islands and Panama made up 54% of the grey fleet, or shadow fleet.
In the third quarter of 2025, the number of vessels registered under false flags increased by 22%, demonstrating the continued use of this form of fraud to smuggle sanctioned cargo. In 2025, the number of vessels under false flags doubled compared to January, demonstrating a sharp escalation in fraudulent registration practices. Four new false registries appeared in the third quarter of 2025. Flags were flown in Tonga, while the Maldives, Mozambique, and Angola were also used.
Russia, Turkey, and China were the three main countries whose ports were used by shadow tanker groups. Meanwhile, Chinese refineries are the largest importer of Russian crude oil. In turn, Turkey imported mainly Russian diesel fuel and crude oil in the third quarter of 2025. “Turkey increased its imports of non-Russian crude oil following new Western sanctions,” reported the Turkish news portal “Turkish Minute” in early November of this year.
From January to October, Turkey imported approximately 669,000 barrels of oil per day, of which 317,000 barrels per day—or 47%—came from Russia, according to Kpler data. For comparison, during the same period last year, imports reached 580,000 barrels per day, including 333,000 barrels per day from Russia. It is worth noting that 39% of the owners of the shadow fleet operating on the fringes of the law are based in Greece.