Qatar on the maritime LNG route. Exports will increase from 77 million to 142 million tons in 2030

Qatar remains a significant gas supplier to Poland. In 2025, 11 LNG carriers carrying supplies from Qatar docked at the Świnoujście pier. Qatar intends to double its supply of liquefied natural gas on the global market. This could translate into lower prices and increased LNG availability for European Union customers, including Poland. The FSRU Gdańsk, which Poland is building, will have a strong supply source.

In 2025, gas demand rebounded significantly, with global exports increasing by 4.6% year-on-year from 303.2 million tons in 2024 to 317.2 million tons in the January-September 2025 period, according to Banchero Costa Research in its latest report. Global seaborne LNG trade gradually increased until 2023. However, no growth was recorded in 2024, and even tanker deliveries declined by 0.1% year-on-year to 408.3 million tons.

Global LNG trade has more than quadrupled since the turn of the century. This strong growth has been accompanied by a profound qualitative transformation, enabling the development of the global LNG trading market. The stunning growth in LNG trade has been supported by three major investment cycles, driven by Qatar, Australia, and the United States, respectively. This has caused the share of LNG in global gas demand to increase from just 5% in 2000 to almost 15% today, according to Greg Molnár Gas, an LNG market analyst at the International Energy Agency (IEA).

“This strong growth was also accompanied by a deeper qualitative transformation. Initially, LNG trade was characterized by point-to-point contracts with a fixed destination, and LNG deliveries essentially operated as virtual pipelines,” explains Molnár.

Since then, supply flexibility has improved. This process has become noticeable over the past two decades, as “the share of contracts with a flexible destination has increased from less than 30% in 2015 to almost half of the total contracted volume today.” Poland is also benefiting from this.

Qatar and the USA

The largest LNG exporter is currently the United States, which accounted for 25% of seaborne gas supplies from January to September 2025. Qatar is the next largest player in the supply market, accounting for 19.5%. Fifteen LNG carriers (approximately 1.35 billion m3) arrived in Poland from the USA in the third quarter of 2025. Four LNG carriers delivered approximately 0.51 billion m3 of gas in ship tanks during the same period. One delivery was from Trinidad and Tobago (approximately 0.1 billion m3).

In the first half of 2025, deliveries were made only from Qatar and the USA. LNG carriers from Qatari terminals delivered 0.70 million tons of LNG (approximately 0.97 billion m3) to Świnoujście. From the USA, approximately 2.73 billion m3 arrived in ship tanks. In the first half of 2025, 40 LNG carriers docked at the Świnoujście terminal, delivering approximately 2.66 million tons of LNG (approximately 3.7 billion m3).

LNG supplies to Poland. Dominant from the USA and Qatar. Source: Institute for Energy Studies, CIRE

Among the major suppliers of LNG are Australia with an 18.7% share and Southeast Asia with a 10.5% share of the global market. During the first three quarters of 2025, the United States exported 79.4 million tons of LNG, representing a 22.7% year-on-year increase compared to the 64.7 million tons shipped during the same period in 2024. Qatar exported 61.7 million tons during the first nine months of 2025, representing a 5.6% year-on-year increase.

Australia loaded 59.2 million tons of LNG onto tankers during the same period in 2025, representing a 2.8% year-on-year decrease. Exports from Southeast Asia fell by 0.6% year-on-year to 33.3 million tons. Russia shipped 21.9 million tons of LNG in the first nine months of this year. This translates to a 5.4% year-on-year decline in seaborne LNG exports, compared to 23.2 million tons in the January-September 2024 period, according to analysts from Banchero Costa Research.

The EU is the gas leader

The EU is the largest importer of LNG, generating 24.3% of global demand for seaborne LNG supplies. The EU imported 77.1 million tons of LNG between January and September 2025. This resulted in a 23.2% year-on-year increase in transshipment at EU gas terminals, compared to the 62.5 million tons received during the first nine months of 2024. This also represents a significant increase of a record 75 million tons over the same period in 2023.

The UK imported 6.1 million tons of LNG between January and September 2025, representing a 23.6% year-on-year increase. However, this is significantly below the 11.6 million tons of gas imported during the same period in 2023. The PRC economy imported 48.9 million tons of LNG during the January-September 2025 period. This was 16.5% less year-on-year, compared to the 58.5 million tons of gas unloaded from LNG tankers in China.

In the same period of January-September 2025, Japan imported 49.4 million tons, compared to January-September 2025. This was a significant increase of 7.4% year-on-year. India imported less, 17.8 million tons, during the analyzed period of 2025. This represents an 8.1% year-on-year decrease.

Qatar Holds Strong

For many years, Qatar was the world’s largest LNG exporter. It has now increased its export volume again. In doing so, it overtook Australia, but still trails the United States. In 2024, Qatar exported 77.2 million tons of LNG by sea, according to LSEG data based on ship traffic monitoring.

Qatar currently accounts for 18.9% of global LNG supply. The United States overtakes the Persian Gulf country. 88 million tons of gas were loaded onto tankers at American LNG terminals. Currently, US suppliers account for 21.6% of the liquefied natural gas supply by sea. Australia secured a 20% market share, bringing 81.7 million tons of gas to market.

In the first nine months of 2025, Qatar exported 61.7 million tons of LNG, representing a 5.6% year-on-year increase. This was significantly less than the 79.4 million tonnes exported by the US in the January-September 2025 period. US exporters achieved this result thanks to a 22.7% year-on-year increase in loadings at gas terminals. Gas exporters from Qatar and the US significantly outperformed Australian suppliers, who introduced 59.2 million tonnes of LNG to the market between January and September 2025.

Going for Asia

By the end of September of this year, Qatar accounted for 19.5% of global gas supplies by sea, and Australia for 18.7% of gas loaded onto tankers. China has become a significant recipient of Qatari gas. Thanks to long-term contracts, LNG exports from Qatar to China increased by 10.6% year-on-year to 14.1 million tons between January and September 2025. A year earlier, during the same period, 12.8 million tons of gas were transported between Qatari and Chinese terminals. This is an all-time record for trade between these countries.

LNG buyers from China accounted for almost 23% of demand for LNG exported from Qatar between January and September 2025. Supplies from this country to the EU have been declining significantly since 2022, reaching just 6 million tons in the first nine months of this year. This represents a 19.5% year-on-year decline in imports to Europe, as tankers carrying 7.5 million tons of LNG were unloaded between January and September 2024. During the peak period (January and September 2022), European importers imported 10 million tons of gas from Qatar.

The second major source of supplies from Qatar is currently India. LNG terminals unloaded 13.8% of Qatari LNG delivered to the global market by the end of September 2025. Qatari deliveries to India during this period increased by 11.1% year-on-year to 8.5 million tons. Taiwan became a significant recipient of Qatari gas, with imports increasing by 36.3% year-on-year. LNG supply volumes from Qatar to the island increased to 6.1 million tons between January and September 2025 (compared to 4.5 million tons in 2024).

Taiwan even overtook the EU and accounts for 9.9% of Qatari LNG exports. Exports to South Korea collapsed, falling by 20.8% year-on-year to 5.2 million tons between January and September 2025. South Korea accounts for 8.5% of Qatari exports. Shipments from Qatar to Southeast Asia increased by 30.6% year-on-year to the end of September 2025 to 4.5 million tonnes.

New gas production field, North Field East. Source: “Journal of Petroleum Technology”

Qatar – double the amount of LNG in 2030

Qatar is investing in production and new gas export terminals, which should increase its liquefied natural gas production capacity from 77 million to 126 million tons per year by 2027. This significant increase in production by over 63% is expected to be the result of strategic capacity development. Qatar will begin exporting liquefied natural gas from the first phase of the North Field East (NFE) expansion project from mid-2026, reports “The Peninsula.”

Qatar’s LNG projects are expected to generate approximately 40% of the total global LNG supply by 2029. QNB Group Chief Business Officer, Yousef Mahmoud Al Neama, described the NFE project as one of the largest investment projects in the region and the world’s largest single gas field. He noted that the construction of eight new LNG production lines, which will be implemented in three phases, will be a key driver of economic growth and a cornerstone of Qatar’s energy strategy.

Speaking at the Qatar Economic Forum earlier this year, His Excellency Saad bin Sherida Al Kaabi, Minister of State for Energy and Chairman and CEO of QatarEnergy, confirmed that work on the expansion of the new production field is progressing according to schedule. He stated that “the first LNG exports from North Field East will begin in the middle of next year.” Following the completion of the North Field West project, which is still in the development phase, Qatar plans to achieve gas production of 142 million tons per year by 2030.