Australian ports are strategic assets. Raw material exports drive Australia’s GDP and economy.

Australian commodity exports fueled the economy in 2025. Ports Australia’s report on the state of trade in Australia showed that ports play a key role in the economy and its prominent position in the international market. Nearly 700,000 dockers contribute AUD 264 billion annually to the economy.

It is through seaports that Australia exports its greatest resources: iron ore and coal, and through gas terminals, liquefied natural gas. These products are supported by growing gold exports and stable iron ore exports. Revenues from commodity exports, including energy commodities, have improved, primarily due to the high supply of iron ore and rising gold prices since the September 2025 reserve approval application. Export volumes are stable and are expected to rise in 2027 to levels close to the record levels achieved in previous years.

Raw Materials at Ports

“Ports account for 99% of Australia’s international trade volume, contributing AUD$264 billion annually to GDP. As the main driver of our economy and workforce, Australia’s ports are crucial to sustaining our island nation. Besides facilitating international trade and the flow of goods across the region, our ports are strategic assets and key infrastructure,” emphasizes Mike Gallacher, Chief Executive Officer, Ports Australia.

Demand for raw materials remains strong and has not been affected by the United States’ protectionist policies. While President Donald Trump’s high tariffs and non-tariff policies have altered cargo flows, they have not altered the activity of Asian economies. While these continue to demand raw materials, including iron ore, coal, and gas, the economy remains in constant demand. At the same time, more lenient monetary and fiscal policies in many countries, along with investments in artificial intelligence and the energy transition, are supporting economic growth and demand for raw materials. Gold prices have risen as investors seek safe havens.

The Australian government forecasts that export revenues from raw materials and energy will remain roughly constant from $385 billion in the 2024–2025 financial year to $383 billion in 2025–2026, before declining slightly to $374 billion in 2026–2027. The sharp rise in gold prices is expected to make gold our second-largest export, after iron ore.

Ore and Coal on the Sea Routes

Iron ore prices have been more resilient than expected when the September 2025 demand announcement was made. This occurred despite weak global steel demand. The Chinese steel industry is driving demand for iron ore. Chinese steel producers are stockpiling, according to the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources. Prices are expected to decline in the coming years due to growing supplies from Africa, Brazil, and Australia.

Australian iron ore exports are rising. However, export revenues are forecast to decline due to lower prices, declining ore quality, and a stronger Australian dollar. Based on this, Australian iron ore export revenues are projected to decline from $116 billion in 2024–2025 to $114 billion in 2025–2026 and $107 billion in 2026–2027.

Australia’s revenue from commodity sales. Source: Department of Industry, Science and Resources, Australia

Australian bulk terminals are clearly feeling the effects of fluctuations in the global coal market. There is little hope of a return to the boom years of 2022-2023. Metallurgical coal prices were higher in the final months of 2025 due to limited domestic coal supply in China. However, prices have increased slightly. Therefore, profits from this commodity are expected to decline in the current financial year (2025-2026) and remain almost unchanged from previous forecasts.

The Australian Department of Commodities forecasts that prices will remain stable until 2026, with a possible increase in 2027. Australian export volumes are expected to increase to 150 million tonnes in 2025–2026 and 161 million tonnes in 2026–2027. Despite the increase in sales, profits from seaborne coal exports are expected to decline from $39 billion in 2024–2025 to $36–37 billion in 2025–2026 and 2026–2027.

Observing the global market, particularly in Asia, allows for an optimistic forecast that thermal coal prices will remain stable for the next two years. This is the result of the continued supply-demand imbalance, which is gradually declining. The outlook for thermal coal has remained little changed compared to the September 2025 demand forecast.

Thermal coal prices are forecast to stabilize at around $109/tonne in 2026, then rise slightly to $113/tonne in 2027 as production and maritime transport costs increase. Australia’s thermal coal export volume is expected to decline from 205 million tonnes in 2024–25 to 202 million tonnes in 2026–27. Export revenues are also expected to decline from $32 billion in 2024–25 to $27 billion in 2026–27.

Australian gas production. Source: Department of Industry, Science and Resources, Australia

Gas and oil exports. Gold on the rise

One of Australia’s most important export commodities is liquefied natural gas. While the outlook for LNG exports is good, revenues from this activity are less optimistic. It is assumed that gas prices may fall in the near future. Gas prices are largely linked to crude oil prices. LNG exports from Australia face competition from LNG supplies from the United States and Qatar, which are steadily increasing. The Department of Commodities forecasts that “LNG export prospects are only slightly weaker than in September 2025, due to lower-than-expected crude oil prices.”

Therefore, Australia’s earnings from liquefied natural gas exports are forecast to decline from $65 billion in 2024-2025 to $47 billion in 2026-2027. The earnings forecast has been revised downward from the September 2025 forecast due to lower projected crude oil prices. This does not mean less activity at export terminals. Oil export terminals will also remain busy.

Australia’s earnings from crude oil exports are expected to decline due to strong global supply and the depletion of Australian crude oil reserves. Compared to the September 2025 crude oil demand forecast, export values ​​have been slightly revised downward by the Australian government. This is justified by the lower prices forecast. Prices are expected to fall from $70 per barrel (Brent) to as much as $59 in 2027. Global oil supply is expected to reach 108 million barrels per day in 2027. Therefore, the value of Australian exports is forecast to decline from $12.5 billion to $6.9 billion in 2026–2027. This phenomenon will be accompanied by the depletion of oil reserves and falling prices.

It’s also worth noting that Australia’s recent export hit has been gold. While not noticeable in bulk terminals at seaports, this commodity is crucial to the government budget. Australian gold production will remain unchanged compared to the September 2025 forecast. The Australian government’s department responsible for commodities justifies this by noting “higher projected gold prices and continued strong demand from investors and central banks.”

Gold export revenues are expected to continue to grow through 2026–2027. As gold prices have risen, Australian gold production will increase in the near term. Record prices and rising export volumes are forecast to push Australian gold export revenues to US$69 billion in 2025–2026 and US$74 billion in 2026–2027. Gold will be exported in containers and without any special attention to loading locations.

Australian ports receive 31,000 ships annually, and approximately 1.6 billion tons of cargo are handled at terminals. The Ports Australia report highlights the importance of seaports to the overall Australian economy. It is particularly important for ensuring mining revenues, as mining generates 64% of Australia’s export value.

The role of seaports in industrial activity and the stability of consumption is also crucial. The ports facilitate the import of components for production and services, as well as consumer goods, handling 7 million containers annually. Construction materials, equipment, production components, and machinery, among other things, reach Australia via this route. The ports also host significant passenger traffic, handling 1.25 million passengers annually.