Bulk carriers and bulk cargo on sea routes in 2026. Time for soy, iron ore, and copper
By Dynamic changes are taking place on maritime routes, driven by geopolitical shifts and cautious decisions by shipping operators. The end of the year already saw a series of reversals in the global shipping market. The beginning of 2026 is also a time for searching for optimal solutions in the transport of bulk cargo, oil, and liner shipping.
Rio Tinto is in talks to acquire Glencore, which will lead to the creation of the world’s largest mineral exploration company. Reuters reports that “Rio Tinto (RIO.L) is in preliminary talks to acquire Glencore (GLEN.L).” After the merger, the consortium will have a combined market value of nearly $207 billion.
Competition in ore production is also reflected in the maritime transport market. Rio Tinto reported that copper production of 240,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2025 exceeded analyst estimates by 11%, as another mine, Oyu Tolgoi, completed its commissioning.
Pilbara shifts into fifth gear
As a result, annual production of 883,000 tonnes exceeded the upper limit of updated forecasts. Iron ore mines in the Pilbara achieved record quarterly production of 89.7 million tonnes and deliveries of 91.3 million tonnes. Exceptionally low copper concentrate prices are forcing efforts to optimize plant management.
In 2025, Australians will release over 326 million tonnes of iron ore and 883,000 tonnes of copper onto the market. Competition is also fierce, with the announcement of the merger between Anglo American (AAL.L) and Teck Resources (TECKb.TO), which will also create a powerful new player in the global copper market. The copper supply gap will widen by 24% by 2040 as electrification accelerates, according to S&P’s latest market analysis through 2040, S&P analysts said in a January press release. Increased mine capacity will be needed to meet demand for copper, as will bulk carriers. Transshipment capacity at leading producer ports will also need to be increased.
Australia’s Pilbara deposits will increase production. Source: Australian Government, BBCThe growth of artificial intelligence and defense will increase global copper demand by 50% by 2040, but supply is expected to decline by more than 10 million metric tons per year without further recycling and mining, according to consulting firm S&P Global. Copper has long been widely used in construction, transportation, technology, and electronics because it is one of the metals with the best electrical conductivity, is corrosion-resistant, and is easy to form.
The growth of the artificial intelligence and defense sectors will increase global copper demand by 50% by 2040, but without further recycling and mining, supply is expected to decline by more than 10 million tons per year, reported Ernest Scheyder of Reuters, citing data from consulting firm S&P Global (SPGI.N).
Copper is widely used in industries beyond construction, transportation, and electronics. Global demand will reach 42 million tons per year by 2040, compared with 28 million tons in 2025, according to the report. Without new sources of supply, nearly a quarter of this demand is likely to remain unmet. “The primary driver of demand is the electrification of the world, and copper is the metal of electrification,” Dan Yergin, vice president at S&P and one of the report’s authors, told Reuters.
To stabilize nickel prices, Indonesia has decided to change its mining quotas. A plan has been implemented to lower nickel mining limits to increase revenues. The announcement pushed nickel prices to a 19-month high. But analysts say the change in supply policy will only trigger a short-term price increase. Indonesia is a significant player, accounting for about 70% of global nickel production, estimated at around 3.8 million tons last year. Seaborne nickel exports are a significant part of the country’s trade.
US Copper Exports. Source: US Import DataRice Changes Routes and Freight
Indian rice exports increased by 19.4% last year. Specifically, rice exports from India in 2025 surged to 21.55 million tons, a near-record level after restrictions were lifted, reaching the second-highest level on record. This is close to the record 22.3 million tons of global shipments in 2022, according to the Vajiram and Ravi Institute. In 2024, exports reached 18.05 million tons.
This happened after the government in New Delhi lifted all export restrictions in 2025. This increased the competitiveness of supplies, a government official told Reuters. Higher rice shipments from the world’s largest exporter resulted in reduced loadings of this grain at ports in Thailand and Vietnam. It also caused purchase prices in Asia to fall to their lowest in almost a decade. This has fueled increased demand for rice imports from poor consumers in Africa and other regions, where rice is a crucial staple.
Experts Vajiram and Ravi emphasize that India is the world’s largest rice producer, surpassing China, accounting for approximately 40% of global supply. The main rice-producing states are Uttar Pradesh, Telangana, West Bengal, Punjab, and Chhattisgarh. Production reached a record 137.8 million tons (LMT) in 2023-2024, and forecasts predict an even higher level in 2025-2026.
US Soybeans Return to Chinese Ports
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is expected to lower its soybean export forecasts from the US. Grain analysts expect the U.S. Department of Agriculture may lower some estimates for soybean export demand in the 2025/26 crop year. Lower sales to China will be a factor.
In its January forecast, the USDA assumed that U.S. oilseed production for the 2025/26 season is estimated at 126.2 million tons, an increase of 0.5 million tons compared to the previous report [from December 12, 2025]. U.S. soybean production is estimated at 4.3 billion bushels, an increase of 9 million. The increase is driven by increased production in Kansas, Kentucky, and Minnesota. Harvested area is estimated at 80.4 million acres, an increase of 0.1 million acres.
U.S. soybean supply for the 2025/26 season increased by 17 million bushels due to higher beginning stocks and additional production. Soybean production for the 2025/26 season increased by 15 million bushels to 2.57 billion bushels due to increased domestic soybean meal and soybean oil exports. Soybean meal and soybean oil extraction rates were also revised downward based on early-season data. Soybean oil used for biofuel production was reduced by 0.7 billion pounds to 14.8 billion pounds due to lower-than-expected consumption and the increased use of tallow as a feedstock in recent months.
Marine transportation will be impacted by U.S. soybean exports being revised down by 60 million bushels to 1.575 billion bushels due to higher Brazilian production and exports. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 350 million bushels, an increase of 60 million bushels. The projected average U.S. soybean price for the 2025/26 season is $10.20 per bushel, down 30 cents.
Bulk Ship Utilization. Source: AXS Marine
Lower Prices, More Bulk on Ship
This reflects National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) prices reported for the first quarter of the fiscal year and expectations for future marketing and pricing. Soybean meal is forecast at $295 per short ton, down $5. Soybean oil remains unchanged at 53 cents per pound.
China has purchased approximately 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling a U.S. commitment to purchase this amount by the end of February, a Reuters correspondent in Beijing reported, based on information obtained from three traders. Ships carrying U.S. soybeans have not sailed to China for four consecutive months since September of last year, reducing the U.S. market share from 21% in 2024 to 15%.
About 600,000 tons is expected to be shipped between March and May, traders reported. This will be the peak season for ships loading in US ports. This arrangement will change the maritime grain market. Brazilian suppliers will be forced to reduce loadings at grain terminals. Competition from the US will reduce Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans in 2026, traders say.
Sergio Mendes, president of the Brazilian grain export group Anec, says that intense competition from the US in soybean sales to China will likely reduce Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans. As of January 2026, total soybean exports from Brazil are forecast to remain high in 2026, potentially reaching a record 112 million tons. Of this, 77 million tons will be shipped to China. However, aggressive competition from US suppliers could reduce sales to China by about 10 million tons.
More wheat on the ships
The USDA’s announcement that “global wheat forecasts for 2025/26 predict higher supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks” will be important for bulk carrier operators. Supplies to the global market increased by 4.3 million tons to 1,102.2 million tons, primarily due to higher production in Argentina and Russia.
Russia is capitalizing on and compensating for the decline in supplies from Turkey in the market. With the wheat harvest in Argentina completed (over 90% of the acreage – MG), the supply forecast has been raised by 3.5 million tons to a record 27.5 million tons, representing a nearly 50% increase compared to the previous year.
Russia’s production forecast has also been raised by 2 million tons to 89.5 million tons, based on higher preliminary yields reported by Rosstat, the USDA determined. Global demand increased by 0.9 million tons to 823.9 million tons, primarily due to higher consumption in Russia, Ukraine, and Morocco.
Global trade increased by 1.1 million tons to 219.8 million tons. Higher exports from Argentina and Kazakhstan are only partially offset by lower supplies to the EU and Ukraine. Forecasted global inventories increased by 3.4 million tons to 278.3 million, primarily due to gains in Russia and Argentina.
Źródło: AXS Marine