European Union fleets profit from trading Russian oil. Ural oil products flow to the EU
By Tankers owned by shipowners operating in EU countries participated in maintaining the transfer of oil from Russia to the global market. In January of this year, tankers owned by European operators loaded and transported 35% of the oil loaded at Russian fuel terminals in tanks and via maritime routes, according to the latest data from Windward and the analytical firm Vortexa. It is assumed that Ural crude products processed in refineries in Turkey and India are purchased by EU countries.
“Pressure on Russia caused by sanctions has driven down oil prices to levels below the EU and UK oil price caps, which had the unintended consequence of allowing EU tankers to continue participating in profitable transactions within the cap, which helped maintain the Kremlin’s logistics chain,” says Michelle Wiese Bockmann, a maritime intelligence analyst and expert in tracking shadow fleets and unfair shipping practices.
On December 6, 2026, Ursula von der Leyen issued a statement stating: “On energy, we are introducing a complete ban on the transportation of Russian crude oil by sea.” She argued that this would “further reduce Russia’s revenues from energy exports and make it more difficult to find buyers for its crude oil.”
Turkey and India’s oil imports and refined product exports. Source: Vortexa
20th Package of Leaky Sanctions
The European Commission President’s statement on the 20th package of sanctions against Russia also states that the next package will be effective because “maritime transport is a global business. We propose to introduce this complete ban in cooperation with like-minded partners following the G7 decision.”
The 20th package of sanctions also covers 20 Russian regional banks and includes planned measures to limit the use of cryptocurrencies, restrict companies trading them, and platforms enabling trading. This action is intended to close off avenues for circumventing regulations.
“We are also targeting several banks in third countries that facilitate the illegal trade in sanctioned goods,” von der Leyen announced, emphasizing: “As part of the third package of measures, we are tightening export restrictions to Russia, introducing new bans on goods and services, from rubber to tractors and cybersecurity services, worth over €360 million.”
The European Commission also imposed import bans on metals, chemicals, and critical minerals not yet covered by sanctions, worth over €570 million. After three years of war, the European Commission decided to introduce “export restrictions on goods and technologies used in Russian warfare, such as materials used in the production of explosives.”
Another 43 tankers were sanctioned. A total of 640 oil vessels were targeted by EU and UK sanctions. This means that over 1,000 grey fleet and zombie vessels will continue to transport oil. There is no mention of sanctions on trade in products refined from Russian oil, a vast stream of which flows into EU countries.
New routes for Russian oil tankers through the Black Sea. Source: Windward
Leaking Black Sea
Michelle Wiese Bockmann notes this: “The method of enforcing the ban on seaborne oil shipments has not been determined, and I’m sure Greece and Cyprus will have their say,” she says.
Moreover, Windward determined that Russian tankers had found a “safe” route in the Black Sea. Based on satellite data, ship identification signal analyses, and AI, it was determined as early as late December 2025 that, to avoid Ukrainian attacks on tankers calling at Russian ports, many vessels had begun following a new route. Windward noted: “The shadow tanker fleet is abandoning passages through the Black Sea and is instead following the Turkish coast.”
The company’s analysts determined that ships loaded with oil at or heading to Russian ports were using the new route. These included, among others, The vessels Belomor, Jumbo, Virel, Tendua, Vayu 1, and Torx, which Windward classifies as high-risk vessels for illegal oil transport.
The vessels operate within Turkey’s 12-mile territorial waters. Therefore, fleet operators can count on the Ukrainian armed forces not carrying out an attack. Ukraine will not risk a military incident or pollution of Turkey’s coastline.
Until now, the traditional shipping route from Novorossiysk to the Bosphorus has passed through the middle of the Black Sea. Thanks to the new coastal route, the length of each voyage is extended by approximately 350 miles, or 70%. This involves additional fuel costs and longer transit times. But for shadow fleet operators, the calculations are simple. The benefits cover operating costs. Insurance premiums for transiting Turkish territorial waters are also reduced.
Oil imports to India until January 2026. Source: Vortexa
India to reduce imports of Urals crude
China, Turkey, and India were among the major buyers of Russian oil, exporting its products to European Union countries. Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL.NS), and Nayara, among others, have been regular buyers of Russian crude for years, reports Nidhi Verma, a Reuters correspondent from New Delhi. Verma adds that the CEO of Reliance Industries (RELI.NS), which suspended purchases of Russian crude for a month, announced last week that the company would purchase up to 150,000 barrels per day starting in February.
It is known that Russia has managed to transform the ownership of ship operators and oil trading companies. These were turned into subsidiaries of entities operating in the United Arab Emirates. And as the price of Urals crude plummeted, EU tankers quickly returned to favor. Their share of Russian oil trade increased from 17% in November of last year to 29% in December and 35% in January 2026, according to Michelle Wiese Bockmann.
Despite announcements that India intends to abandon Urals crude, a Reuters correspondent reports that “four companies and the Indian Ministry of Petroleum did not respond to emails requesting comment.” However, it has been established that India is preparing to reduce its imports of Russian oil to below 1 million barrels per day. Ultimately, Urals crude imports are expected to reach 600,000 barrels per day. Indian imports of Russian oil peaked at around 2 million barrels per day in June of last year.
According to a new analysis recently published by TankerTrackers, oil tankers from Russian ports continue to follow the route along the Turkish coast, where they find “safe” waters. This route was used, for example, by the vessel Strateg, according to Windward. According to the company’s experts, by the end of 2025, the shadow fleet numbered over 1,900 vessels, or about 10% of all oil tankers.
Bockmann claims that at least 32 tankers in the shadow fleet have reflagged to Russia since the Skipper was detained on December 10 (as of January 26), and over 50 since July of last year. Windward has identified another 110 tankers, all sanctioned and registered under false registries, which will likely seek refuge in Russia in the coming months. However, the maritime transport of oil and products is primarily driven by legal carriers, seaports, and fuel terminals. Will European Union fleets profit from trading in Russian oil as a result of the specifically designed loopholes in the 20th sanctions group? Every operator in the oil and fuel market knows the answer.