Oil and Tankers at Start of 2026: Lower Prices, More Oil, and a Return to Traditional Sea Routes
By News of the takeover of Venezuelan oil trade by American companies and drone attacks on shadow fleet tankers are electrifying the beginning of 2026. The situation in the Persian Gulf is causing concern. However, these disruptions will not change the increased supply of oil in the global market. This is good news for operators of tankers and fuel terminals, both export and import.
Producers, however, must expect that the increased supply will affect prices. Global oil prices. In its January 2026 report, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that oil prices will decline in 2026. According to EIA experts, global oil production will exceed global demand, which will cause an increase in oil inventories in major markets.
Moreover, global inventories will continue to grow in 2027, albeit at a slower pace. The EIA forecasts that the average Brent crude oil price will reach $56 per barrel (b) in 2026, 19% lower than in 2025, before declining to $54/b in 2027.
The EIA forecasts that global liquid fuel production will increase by 1.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2026 and by 0.5 million b/d in 2027. The increase in global liquid fuel production in 2026 will be driven by increased OPEC+ oil production, while the increase in 2027 will be driven by non-OPEC+ countries, primarily from oil fields in South America, including Venezuela. The EIA forecast assumes that the current sanctions against Venezuela will remain in place until 2027.
Oil prices will fall, supply will increase
U.S. oil production will slowly decline. After reaching an annual record of 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025, U.S. oil production is projected to decline by less than 1% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. The EIA states in the report: “With continued lower oil prices, we expect oil production to decline as the slowdown in drilling activity outpaces the increase in drilling efficiency.” Therefore, the average price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil in the forecast is $52/b in 2026 and $50/b in 2027, compared to $65/b in 2025.
Tank operators can feel confident about the future. Platts Analytics’ current scenario assumes total supply and demand for liquid fuels will peak around 2040 at 111 million barrels per day, before gradually declining to 108 million barrels per day by 2050.
“Unless there is significant government intervention to accelerate the transition to low-carbon energy sources, limiting global warming from liquid hydrocarbon emissions will be difficult to achieve,” said Rene Santos, head of supply and production at Platt Analytics in North America, according to Robert Perkins of S&P Global.
Greens Against British Oil
UN countries will be able to count on North Sea oil for a long time to come, provided there are consistent supplies from new wells. Disruptions in oil production from UK oil fields could occur due to the activity of environmental organizations. Greenpeace is leading the charge, intending to use the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report to combat the expansion of the refining industry. The report states, among other things, that “Energy demand and related emissions in the energy sector are steadily increasing.”
Between 2015 and 2019, global final energy consumption increased by 6.6%, CO2 emissions from the global energy system increased by 4.6%, and total greenhouse gas emissions related to energy supply increased by 2.7%. Methane emissions, primarily fugitive emissions from crude oil, natural gas, and coal, accounted for 18% of greenhouse gas emissions in 2019.
Total consumption of crude oil and petroleum products increased by 5%, while natural gas consumption increased by 15%. Declining energy intensity in almost all regions was offset by rising energy consumption. Robert Perkins of S&P Global notes that “Greenpeace is preparing to fight British authorities over planned mining expansion, the latest phase of legal battles threatening the European oil and gas industry.” Last May, a Dutch district court, responding to a complaint filed by the local branch of Friends of the Earth, ordered Shell to reduce its carbon footprint by 45% by 2030; the Anglo-Dutch giant has appealed the ruling.
Fuel Terminals on Standby
However, ports receiving crude oil must be ready for stable, or even increasing, cargo deliveries from crude oil tankers. Chinese crude oil imports in 2026 will likely remain at the same level as in 2025. And in 2025, December deliveries reached record levels. Chinese crude oil imports increased by 17% in December compared to the previous year.
Total imports in 2025 increased by 4.4%, according to Chinese customs data. Furthermore, daily crude oil import volumes reached record levels both in December and throughout 2025. Chinese refinery throughput in 2025, as well as oil and gas production, reached new records. Chinese refinery production in 2025 increased by 4.1% year-on-year. In the January-December period of last year, Oil production increased by 1.5%.
The world’s second-largest oil consumer will process 737.59 million tons of crude oil in 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. China’s imports of Russian Urals crude oil peaked in 2023, while demand in India is declining. Much of China’s rising oil demand this year was driven by increased demand for jet fuel and petrochemical production, Haibo Wang, director of oil market research at the CNPC Institute for Economic and Technological Research, told Reuters.
China and India – Two Purchasing Policies
He added that China’s expected crude oil consumption is expected to reach 760 million tons in 2025, a 0.9% increase compared to 2024. Demand is expected to stabilize in 2026. Demand is expected to remain above 700 million tons until 2030. Last year’s forecasts assumed that oil demand could reach 770 million tons in 2025 and then gradually decline to 240 million by 2060.
In September, leading state-owned refiner Sinopec (Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co.) announced that it expects total oil demand to peak in 2027, according to Colleen Howe and Sam Li of Routersa in Beijing. To date, the refinery has processed over 250 million tons of crude oil annually and produced over 150 million tons of products. The forecast for demand for crude oil used in the production of chemicals and new materials has also been raised to a peak of 290 million tons in 2050, representing a 57% increase compared to this year.
China imported the most Russian Urals crude at prices lower than Iranian crude. In December of last year, China purchased 47% of Russia’s crude oil exports, followed by India (38%), Turkey (6%), and the EU (6%). This has been the case since 2023, after the main buyer, India, sharply reduced imports due to Western sanctions. Tighter EU sanctions against Russian oil producers and pressure from the Trump administration prompted Indian refineries to curb imports in December and seek alternatives.
As a result, tankers have changed routes as OPEC regains market share in India. Russian crude imports fell to a two-year low in December. This pushed the share of OPEC shipments to an 11-month high. Tanker operators and oil terminals will benefit, while refineries will bear the costs. Lower imports of Russian crude, previously sold at a discount, will likely hit refinery profits. US and EU sanctions will force state and private refinery owners to turn to suppliers in the Middle East, the United States, and South America. This will increase crude oil transport on established routes and reduce shadow fleet activity at Indian terminals.