Revolution on the gas market as early as 2026. The FSRU in Gdańsk may import gas from Aramco’s Jafurah

Saudi Arabia’s launch of new gas fields at full capacity will revolutionize the LNG supply and pricing market. With reserves of 6.87 trillion cubic meters of gas and 75 billion barrels of condensate, the Jafurah field is one of the largest gas investment projects. Aramco claims that gas sales after the completion of the first phase of the project will increase to approximately 650 million cubic feet per day by the end of 2026.

Gas supplies from Qatar and Saudi Arabia could reduce the EU and Poland’s dependence on LNG carriers from the United States and, most importantly, lower LNG and freight prices. In the first nine months of 2025, the value of imported liquefied natural gas increased by 36.1% and the volume by 25.9%. The value of imported gaseous natural gas increased by 3.1%, while the volume decreased by 4.9%, according to EUROSTAT.

According to ORLEN data, 81 LNG carriers were received at the Świnoujście terminal in 2025, unloading approximately 5.7 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) (7.9 billion m3). This was 1.28 million tons of LNG more (1.76 billion m3) compared to 2024. Transatlantic deliveries dominated in 2025.

4.07 million tons of LNG (5.62 billion m3) arrived from American gas terminals. Significantly smaller deliveries were contracted from Qatar and Trinidad and Tobago. Qatar received 1.45 million tons of LNG (2 billion m3). One carrier delivered approximately 0.1 billion m3 of liquefied natural gas from Trinidad and Tobago. A similar amount of gas was imported from fields in Senegal and Mauritania.

Poland’s Maritime LNG Imports. Source: CIRE. Institute for Energy Studies

Aramco May Increase LNG Supply

Aramco from Saudi Arabia may provide further LNG supplies to the European Union and Poland. According to the latest information, the second phase of the investment is scheduled to begin in 2027. It will gradually increase production to 2 billion cubic feet per day by the end of the decade. Aramco is currently working on the next phase of the MGS system expansion.

Completion of the investment will increase the facility’s capacity by 3.15 billion cubic feet per day to 12.5 billion cubic feet per day by 2028. To this end, a network of 4,000 km of pipelines and 17 new gas compression facilities will be constructed.

– The upcoming wave of LNG deliveries is expected to bring relief to global gas markets, which have been tense and volatile for several years. With the arrival of new supplies, particularly from the United States and Qatar, this should put downward pressure on prices, bringing welcome relief to gas importers worldwide, said Keisuke Sadamori, Director of Energy Markets and Security at the International Energy Agency (IEA).

However, the Director did not include in his forecasts that Saudi Arabia, through Saudi Aramco, could be the next major player. Sadamori believes that “rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty mean there is no room for complacency. Global cooperation remains essential to ensure supply security – especially in the face of rising electricity consumption, which is likely to increase gas demand in many regions.”

Global Pipeline Cooperation

The project underway in Saudi Arabia is an example of such global cooperation. To implement this massive Master Gas System Network (MGS3) project, with a total investment value exceeding $12 billion, Saudi state-owned energy giant Saudi Aramco has selected China Petroleum Engineering and Construction Company (CPECC) to implement the first investment package.

The project for the third phase of the billion-dollar network expansion has been divided into 15 engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) subprojects, reported Indrajit Sen of “Middle East Business Intelligence.” Numerous foreign companies are participating in the implementation of the Master Gas System Network (MGS3). It’s important to note that the days when Polish companies were significant contractors in Arab markets are long gone.

Source: Comext and Eurostat estimates

CPECC revealed that the contract signed with Aramco is worth $1.7 billion. The Chinese company will perform EPC 1 work required for the MGS3 project. CPECC won the tender, beating out 10 competing companies, including China’s Shandong Electric Power Construction Company and Turkish construction company Mapa.

Two of the 15 construction packages for the Master Gas System Network – MGS3 were awarded to a Turkish company. Projects 4 + 9 will be carried out by Mapa, a company already known in Saudi Arabia. Chinese companies were awarded contracts for EPC 1 (the aforementioned China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Company), package 2 to Sepco, and packages 6 + 7 to Sinopec Petroleum Services.

Several packages were awarded to Indian contractors. EPC 8 will be executed by Larsen & Toubro Energy Hydrocarbon, and packages 13 + 15 + 17 by the construction company Kalpataru Power Transmission. Domestic companies were also involved in the construction of MGS3. EPC 5 will be executed by Bin Quraya, EPC 3 + EPC 12 by Gas Arabian, and packages 10 + 14 will be executed by Nesma & Partners, a company launched by Saudi Arabia and Italy. The tender for package 11 was won by Max Streicher from Germany.

Turkey business in Saudi Arabia

It is worth noting that over 200 Turkish companies have invested approximately $20 billion in Saudi Arabia and are participating in the implementation of projects included in Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 plan, reported Turkey Today, citing information from the Turkish-Saudi Arabia Business Council operating under the Foreign Economic Relations Board (DEIK).

Turkish contractors secured the largest number of international projects in Saudi Arabia in 2024, with a total contract value of $2.3 billion. These included Limak, TAV, IC Ictas, Kuzu, Mapa, Kolin, and Tekfen, according to the Turkish Contractors Association (TMB).

It is also worth noting that Saudi Arabia has become a major customer for the Turkish defense industry. During President Erdoğan’s visit to Saudi Arabia in 2023, the Turkish company Baykar Industries, the parent company of the TB-2 Bayraktar and the Akıncı unmanned aerial vehicle (UCAV), announced the largest-ever foreign contract opportunity.

The exact amount of the transaction is unknown. However, defense market experts estimate the contract at $3 billion. The agreement includes a co-production clause, and Baykar anticipates launching a production line for the Akıncı unmanned aerial vehicle (UCAV) in Saudi Arabia.

From India to Saudi Arabia

The scope of work includes EPC work related to the expansion of three support stations, along with the construction of necessary ancillary facilities. Completion of this project is expected in June 2028. Indian companies Kalpataru Projects International (KPIL) and Larsen & Toubro have already confirmed the award of multiple EPC contracts from Aramco for work on the MGS3 project.

In a statement to the BSE in Mumbai, Kalpataru announced that it had received a letter of intent from Saudi energy giant Aramco to perform EPC work for three packages as part of the third phase of the MGS network expansion in Saudi Arabia. The Indian company has been awarded the contract to lay over 800 km of connection pipeline.

Aramco is developing multiple onshore and offshore gas fields, in line with its strategy to significantly increase gas production in the country by the end of this decade. The company announced that, based on research, reserves in the Jafurah field have increased by at least 15 trillion cubic feet of gas.

Aramco will revolutionize the gas and maritime LNG markets when it implements the Jafurah gas field project, valued at over $100 billion. The Jafurah field is expected to reach a production capacity of 2 billion cubic feet per day by 2030. This will increase the operator’s total production capacity by 50%. Natural gas production in Saudi Arabia exceeded 4 trillion cubic feet per year for the first time in 2020.

From 2030, the Jafurah field is expected to produce approximately 420 million cubic feet per day of ethane and approximately 630,000 barrels per day of NGL (liquefied natural gas) and condensate as gas byproducts. Ethane and NGL from Jafurah will be sent to the Riyas plant.

Condensate will be sent to the Juaymah terminal, where Aramco is expanding its storage and export facilities. Aramco anticipates that, thanks to the Jafurah development and other planned gas projects, the company will generate additional revenues of approximately $9 to $10 billion annually by the end of the decade. This may also include customers from EU countries that are also relying on gas for their energy transition.