The maritime iron ore market belongs to China. Asia Full Speed Ahead, EU in Wake
By Iron ore is a cargo that provides significant profits to fleets and seaports. Market conditions on the demand side are practically dictated by Asia, with the Chinese economy at the forefront. On the supply side, mining companies from Australia and Brazil are the main players. Global seaborne iron ore transport in the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1.247 billion tons, while in the same period in 2024, ships carried 1.246 billion tons. In 2024, global seaborne iron ore transport increased by 2.3% year-on-year to 1,669.2 million tons, reports Banchero Costa Research.
Iron ore seaborne transport stands out among dry bulk cargo transport. It clearly demonstrates who dominates the steel production market and determines the main logistics flows on maritime routes. Demand-generating companies determine the rhythm and conditions of employment for Capesize bulk carriers, determining the utilization rate and earnings of Panamax vessels. These conditions have been relatively stable for several years, and even the COVID-19 pandemic did not significantly harm this market. This continued into 2025, with ship operators and transshipment terminals operating at a generally regular pace.
For some time now, there has been a clear concentration of supply markets, with Australia and Brazil accounting for 77.98% of supply in 2025, according to precise calculations by AXS Marine analysts. In the previous year, this share was 77.72%. The main demand for iron ore bulk carrier transport came from Chinese steel mills, which controlled 74.28% of global imports in 2025, while in 2024 this share was slightly lower (74.50%). Asia’s total share (China, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam, rest of Asia) in generating demand for seaborne iron ore transport is impressive, reaching 92.52% last year, while it reached slightly less, 92.47%, in 2024. As much as 70.38% of iron ore was transported on sea routes in Capesize holds, and only 19.64% was loaded on VLOCs.
Iron Ore on Sea Routes
Recent years have been a turbulent time for the global iron ore trade. The war and demand for steel also played a role. Unfortunately, steel mills in the European Union and the United States are missing from this game. Exports from Australia increased by 1.2% year-on-year to 854.5 million tons between January and November 2025. Exports from Brazil increased by 4.3% year-on-year during the same period in 2025 to 362.9 million tons. Other countries are also benefiting from the supply of iron ore.
Exports from Canada increased by 0.7% year-on-year to 56.2 million tons, and exports by sea from South Africa increased by 5.3% year-on-year to 50.5 million tons. India has diverted domestic iron ore to its own plants and reduced seaborne iron ore exports by 26.2% year-on-year in the January-November 2025 period to 25.5 million tons, according to Banchero Costa Research in its latest report, explaining: “Import data for this year is still lower because it does not yet reflect the growth in exports over the past two months.”
It can be assumed that steel mill demand will remain similar to 2024 or increase slightly, driven by demand from industries relying on steel products. By November of last year, iron ore imports to China had decreased by 1.4% year-on-year to 1,123.5 million tons. Japan’s imports fell by 2.3% year-on-year to 81.8 million tons. Imports to EU countries increased by 2.3% year-on-year to 69.6 million tons. The needs of the South Korean steel industry decreased by 2% year-on-year to 64.5 million tons, according to AXS Marine.
Malaysia’s imports increased by 4.6% year-on-year to 22.2 million tonnes. Vietnam’s demand for seaborne ore fell by 3.0% year-on-year to 19 million tonnes. At Oman’s bulk terminals, transshipment fell by 6.2% year-on-year to 12.6 million tonnes, and in Saudi Arabia by 2.9% year-on-year to 10 million tonnes. Meanwhile, Bahrain’s bulk terminals saw increased activity, as ships delivered 0.6% more iron ore year-on-year, unloading 11.8 million tonnes.
China Sets Records
The Chinese metallurgical industry is by far the largest importer of iron ore in the world. In the January-December 2024 period, China “pulled” 74.4% of iron ore supplies from the market. This trend was already noticeable, when in the January-December 2023 period, imports from Chinese steel plants increased by 5% year-on-year to 1,200.8 million tons. In 2024, China’s iron ore consumption continued to increase, and with it, unloadings at ore terminals increased by 4.1% year-on-year to 1,250.4 million tons. This is another new all-time record for iron ore imports.
As already mentioned, in the January-November 2025 period, China’s lower imports over three quarters by 1.4% y/y (1,123.5 million tonnes) resulted from low demand in the first quarter of 2025. Then, 7.9% less iron ore was imported by sea than in the first quarter of 2024. Already in the second quarter of 2025, imports to China increased by 0.4% y/y, and in the third quarter of last year by 1% y/y. By far the most frequently moored at Chinese ore terminals were Capesize ships (130,000-220,000 dwt), which delivered about 70% of imported iron ore in 2025. About 22% of the ore came to China on VLOC vessels (over 220,000 dwt). Only 4% of this cargo arrived in the holds of Post-Panamax bulk carriers, 2% was delivered by Panamax vessels, and 2% by Supramax vessels, according to data collected by AXS Marine analysts.
While we can easily name the most important container ports, the names of even the most important iron ore import terminals rarely appear on maritime portals. It is worth noting that, among others, shipyards in China operate thanks to efficient operators in ports such as Caofeidian (122.3 million tons discharged between January and November 2025), Qingdao (100.1 million tons), and Tangshan/Jingtang (82.1 million tons), according to a report by Banchero Costa Research.
More steel exports
Significant ore terminals are also operating in Ningbo/Zhoushan (79.9 million tons), Rizhao (77.6 million tons), Tianjin (77.2 million tons), Fangcheng (76.6 million tons), Lanshan (61.9 million tons), Dongjiakou (60.7 million tons), Lianyungang (57.7 million tons), and Zhanjiang (44.0 million tons). It’s no surprise that import ore terminals are operating at full capacity, unloading iron ore.
Export terminals loading steel onto ships are also operating at full capacity. China’s steel exports exceeded the 100 million ton mark in 2024. Nearly 111 million tons of general cargo were loaded onto ships at general cargo terminals during the year, according to data compiled by the Chinese Customs Service and maintained by BigMint. Chinese steel supply to the global market reached 91 million tons in 2023, achieving an impressive 22% increase in supplies to external markets.
In the January-June 2025 period, Chinese steel mills increased steel exports by 9.2% compared to the same period in 2024, to 58.15 million tons, according to the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA), citing data from the Customs Service. During this period, steel imports to the Chinese market fell by 16.4% year-on-year, to 3.023 million tons, according to the analytical firm GMK Center. The European Union can no longer function without steel supplies from Asia.
Iron ore reaches China primarily via the Pacific Ocean from loading ports in Australia. The country remains by far the largest supplier, with a share of 63.9% in January-November 2025. China’s iron ore imports in January-November 2025 increased by 0.9% year-on-year, reaching a record level of 718.0 million tonnes (711.3 million tonnes during 3Q24).
Australia, a maritime leader
Australia’s revenue from ore exports, primarily iron ore, was high in 2024. However, it is forecast to decline from peak levels, the Australian Department of Industry, Science and Resources announced in a statement. In the 2024-25 financial year, export revenue from iron ore alone is estimated to be around AU$107-116 billion. Total mining and energy sector revenue is projected to decline from around AU$417 billion in 2023-24 to around AU$366 billion in 2024-25. This is due to falling prices, despite increasing supply volumes to international markets.
The largest loading port in Australia for iron ore to China is Port Hedland, where 430.2 million tonnes were loaded onto bulk carriers via conveyor belts (January-November 2025). Brazil remains second among ore suppliers, with a 22.5% share in January-November 2025. China’s imports from Brazil increased by 0.7% y/y in January-November 2025 to 253.3 million tonnes.
In the same period in 2024, 251.5 million tonnes of ore were loaded onto ships in Brazilian ports. The largest loading port in Brazil for ore shipped to China was the Ponta da Madeira ore terminals (107.6 million tonnes in 3 quarters of 2025). Ore deliveries from South Africa to China increased by 6.5% y/y to 30.5 million tonnes in the same period of 2025. Shipments from India fell by 39.0% y/y to 20.7 million tonnes. From Peru, 34% less ore was delivered to China by ships y/y, with 13.9 million tonnes loaded onto ore carriers.