Even before the US threatened to attack Iran, information from OPEC indicated that we could expect a slight surplus of crude oil supply in the second quarter. Countries under sanctions and buyers from these markets are contributing to the additional oil supplies. And the additional ton-miles of crude oil are being driven up by operators trading in these markets. This translates to an oversupply of crude oil and falling prices on global markets.

OPEC recently forecast that global oil demand from the OPEC+ group will decline by 400,000 barrels per day in the second quarter. Global demand for OPEC+ crude oil will average 42.20 million barrels per day in the second quarter, OPEC announced in its monthly oil market report on its website. In the first quarter of this year, supplies are estimated at 42.60 million barrels per day. Both forecasts remain unchanged from the previous month’s report.

The total fleet of tankers with a deadweight capacity of over 60,000 barrels per day (DWT) is expected to decline by 400,000 barrels per day (BWD). The current total capacity of the fleet is currently 2,223 units, for a total of 448.32 million dwt, according to Banchero Costa Research experts. Currently, 892 VLCC tankers are engaged in oil transport, representing 40% of the total fleet in terms of units. The Suezmax crude oil fleet comprises 621 units, representing 28% of the fleet in terms of units. Crude oil is carried by 658 Aframax vessels, or 30%. Only 52 Panamax vessels, representing 2% of the crude oil tanker fleet, are used for maritime transport.

Business on maritime routes

Tanker owners have sensed the economic situation. Investors focused primarily on the tanker segment in late 2025 and early 2026. In January of this year alone, 101 transactions were recorded, with an estimated capital investment of $4.7 billion, according to broker Allied Quantum Sea. The strongest demand was recorded in the secondary market for the VLCC segment, with 43 transactions totaling $2.9 billion. Mid-sized vessel segments also attracted significant capital. In the Suezmax market, 10 transactions were completed, totaling $523.6 million. LR2/Aframax ownership changes occurred in eight transactions, valued at $517.5 million.

Capital Link panelists concluded that persistent six-figure day rates, sanction-related inefficiencies, and aging fleets are supporting profits in 2026, reported Craig Jallal on rivieramm.com in January. The market was assessed by such stalwarts as: Svein Moxnes Harfjeld, President and CEO of DHT Holdings; Lars H. Barstad, CEO of Frontline Management; Nikolas P. Tsakos, founder and CEO of Tsakos Energy Navigation (TEN), and Mikkel Seidelin, commercial director of Teekay Tankers. The panel was moderated by Jørgen Lian, director of capital analysis for the shipping sector at DNB Carnegie.

During a discussion as part of the Capital Link webinar series on the shipping sector, crude oil tanker executives stated that winter rates remained stable, with high volumes being set at levels rarely deviating from rates achieved in 2008 and 2020. Freight is satisfactory, but oil prices are relatively low for now.

OPEC+ Pumps Oil to the Market

Despite low prices, OPEC+ is leaning toward resuming oil production growth from April, the agency reported, based on information obtained directly from an OPEC+ source. This is because member countries are preparing for increased summer demand. Price uncertainty stems from the tensions caused by the US entering a war zone with Iran.

Stabilization in the region would allow OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and other members, such as the United Arab Emirates, to regain market share. Other OPEC+ members, such as Russia and Iran, are operating under pressure from sanctions and are also seeking ways to pump oil into the market. Supply from Kazakhstan is being disrupted by difficulties in delivering oil to terminals.

China’s imports of Russian and Iranian oil remain high, and a new supply record is expected in February of this year. The maritime transport market is also being impacted by India’s reduction in oil imports from Russia and its shift to supplies from the Persian Gulf. This has shortened its supply routes and reduced its maritime oil transport costs.

Russian oil imports to China are expected to increase for the third consecutive month, reaching a new record in February. The Chinese New Year did not affect tanker operations here, allowing independent refineries to acquire cargoes after significant price reductions in contracts signed in 2025. According to data from traders and operators of ships booked for oil transport, Russian oil deliveries to China in February are estimated at 2.07 million barrels per day. This will exceed the 1.7 million barrels per day reached in January of this year, according to Vortexa Analytics.

Oil and Investment

The oil market is also being impacted by the United States’ recent move to ease sanctions on the Venezuelan energy sector. New licenses allow global players to launch new projects in the OPEC member country. The US Treasury issued a general license facilitating the exploration and production of oil and gas in Venezuela. This move also impacted the prices of both energy sources.

The activity of major players in the Persian Gulf is also impacting the movements in the oil market. Saudi-backed Midad signed a letter of intent with Lukoil regarding sanctioned assets and is awaiting its approval. The transaction is contingent on US regulatory approval. Lukoil intends to divest foreign assets restricted by Western sanctions and is capitalizing on growing interest in Russian assets from Middle Eastern investors.

These moves are also influencing the movements in the tanker market. This segment has been a popular one for investors. Tankers accounted for the majority of disclosed capital invested, primarily due to Greek participation in the acquisition of large crude oil carriers. In contrast, Chinese buyers were more active in the dry bulk segment, where activity was broader in terms of the number of transactions and focused on selected fleet additions.

Ship Trading

Oil trading is not the only market element that determines the final price. Secondary market activity plays a significant role. It provides information on whether it is profitable to transport, what is profitable to transport, and how the oil will be transported. Transactions between shadow fleet operators and the manipulation of zombie ships play a significant role in the secondary market.

In the official secondary market, medium-sized vessels continued to account for the largest share of total transaction volume in both sectors. Greek investors made 14 acquisitions, allocating USD 883.1 million, according to Allied Quantum Sea. This represented 13.9% of tanker transactions in January 2026, but almost 25% of the capital invested in the secondary market. The Chinese operator limited itself to purchasing one product tanker worth USD 14.0 million.

Greek capital focused on the crude oil transport market. In January alone, there were six Suezmax vessel acquisitions with a total value of USD 437.6 million and four VLCC acquisitions worth USD 302 million. There were also three MR transactions worth USD 99.5 million and one LR1/Panamax acquisition worth USD 44 million.

Transactions on the secondary market did not significantly impact freight, and the crude oil transport market remained relatively stable in early February. Greece is particularly resistant to accepting the proposal of the 20th EU Oil Sanctions Package. There is also resistance from the flag of convenience states, Cyprus and Malta. There is no consensus on replacing the price cap on Russian crude oil supplies with a ban on maritime transport services for Russian crude. As a result, crude oil transport continued uninterrupted, and the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) averaged 1,718, representing a 1.6% month-on-month increase, reported Greek Intermodal.

Stable Charters

Demand remained stable in the VLCC market. The Middle East Gulf (MEG) market saw a limited increase in demand for large tankers following the end of transshipment in February. International Energy Week (IE Week) also did not trigger any significant demand changes. In the West African (WAF) zone, crude oil transport activity was moderate.

Charter rates from West Africa stabilized, supported by a balance in the external market. Overall, rates remained stable, supported by a number of booked cargoes. The TCE reached USD 107,393/day, down 1.2% year-on-year, according to Intermodal brokers.

Charter rates for Suezmax vessels were largely stable, with the TCE declining slightly by 0.3% year-on-year to USD 93,219/day. In the African (WAF) market, rates remained stable at around USD 70,000/day. The Middle East remained stable. A single escalation of tensions between the US and Iran could trigger a short-term surge in chartered vessels carrying oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

Surprisingly, the Black Sea region remained stable, even though cargoes via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) were generally delivered outside of schedule. Rates here remain high, exceeding $115,000/day. Freight is certainly being impacted by the retention of vessels for extended periods of time. A large proportion of vessels operate as part of the grey fleet. However, many operators are also extending the operating hours of oil tankers.

Aged Vessels Still Active

The oil tanker fleet is aging rapidly, and it will be some time before the fleet’s supply changes significantly as a result of modernization. DHT Holdings President and Chief Executive Svein Moxnes Harfjeld stated that by the end of 2028, “50% of the fleet will be over 15 years old, and 25% over 20 years old,” reports Craig Jallal in the “riviera” news portal. Harfjeld stated that the practical “hard limit” for tanker disposal was recently 15 years old, but under current conditions, it has “definitely” approached 20 years. Teekay also does not expect to sell many vessels “over 20 years old in a significant way.” Teekay Tankers Chief Commercial Officer Mikkel Seidelin said the company sold 11 tankers in 2025 while simultaneously beginning to rebuild its fleet.

The panelists also explored scenarios for the development of the “shadow” fleet and its impact on charters and the profitability of legal fleets. The extent to which a change in sanctions or a Russian-Ukrainian agreement could alter tanker shipping was also explored. Seidelin believes that tonne-miles performed by vessels increased [after the outbreak of war – Ministry of Economy] by an average of 5% in 2022 and 7% in 2023.

Significant increases in tonne-miles occurred in the use of medium-sized vessels. Seidelin stated that “achieving these wartime gains would be difficult to dispute.” As of February 2026, 26% of the merchant fleet is over 20 years old, 28% is 15-19 years old, 15% is 10-14 years old, 22% is 5-9 years old, and 9% is less than 5 years old. The order book value-to-turnover ratio is 16.4% on a dwt basis, according to analysts at Banchero Costa Research.

Due to the legacy of older vessels and the activity of the gray fleet, Tsakos explains that the VLCC shipyard’s order for “USD 130 million” with delivery in 2028 or 2029 requires a long-term business case. For the contract to be profitable in the primary market, the return on investment for the vessel should reach USD 60,000 per day. Nikolas P. Tsakos firmly stated that speculative orders should be avoided.

Holding older vessels for too long will not benefit the profitability of the business. And since the oil tanker fleet will grow by approximately 3% annually thanks to primary market deliveries, freight rates could fall to the break-even point. The oil market is influenced by economic factors, supply and demand, and geopolitical factors. The opening of trade with Venezuela has partially stabilized the market.

Sanctions imposed on Russian oil haven’t changed the market, but they have opened up new supply channels for shadow fleets. Another war in the Persian Gulf could cause temporary turmoil in oil supply and charter prices. However, it appears that most suppliers and operators have prepared for the turmoil by loading onshore and offshore tanks with cheap crude and waiting for price spikes.