Global crude oil supply via maritime routes increased by 2% year-on-year to 2,224.7 million tons in 2025, excluding cabotage trade, according to cargo calculations based on tanker tracking by LSEG. The European Union was the second-largest importer of crude oil by sea in 2025. China overtook the EU in the crude oil demand market, as EU countries reduced imports by 2.7% year-on-year between January and December 2025.

460.6 million tons of crude oil were pumped through fuel terminals to European refineries last year. The supply market for the European Union was concentrated in North Africa and the North Sea. However, supplies from the Persian Gulf were significant in the global market, with volumes increasing by 1.7% year-on-year to 883.4 million tons in 2025. Arab countries accounted for 39.7% of seaborne crude oil trade.

Exports from Russia (including crude oil of Kazakh origin) recovered, increasing by 2.1% year-on-year between January and December 2025. A total of 233.4 million tons of crude oil were loaded onto tankers in Russian ports, representing 10.5% of global trade. The increase in Russian crude oil exports primarily benefited legal fleets and fuel terminals, as well as legally operating trading and insurance companies. One-quarter of this crude oil was unloaded at fuel terminals in European Union ports.

South American countries significantly increased their crude oil supply, bringing 11% more crude to market than in 2024. Tankers exported 220.6 million tons of crude oil from ports in this region, representing 9.9% of global trade. US suppliers reduced exports by 8% year-on-year, loading 181.7 million tons of crude oil onto tankers in 2025.

The share of US crude in the maritime transport market decreased to 8.2%. Tanker loadings in Southeast Asia also fell by 11.3% year-on-year. Oil trading companies in this region exported 106.7 million tons in 2025. This indicates a significant change in the volume of re-exported crude oil from Russia, according to analysts from Banchero Costa Research.

Energy commodity prices have been falling significantly in recent years and will likely remain low in 2026. This has led to sales shortfalls in exporters’ balance sheets. Meanwhile, importers, while importing similar quantities of crude oil and gas, have significantly reduced their spending on raw materials and freight.

China ahead of the EU

On the demand side, the decisive player is the Chinese refining industry. China is the largest importer of crude oil by sea. In 2025, China accounted for 23% of global crude oil demand. This was despite China’s imports declining by 0.6% year-on-year last year. Yet, fuel terminals operated at near full capacity throughout the year, unloading 505.2 million tons of crude oil.

EU-27 imports decreased by 2.7% year-on-year last year to 460.6 million tons. ASEAN imports offset these declines, increasing by 7.2% year-on-year. Unloadings at fuel terminals reached 284.4 million tons. Analysts at Banchero Costa Research argue that in this case, “Russian volumes that were later re-exported to other Asian countries” should also be included. The Indian economy’s oil imports generated a 2.7% year-on-year increase. Terminals received 239.6 million tons of crude oil in the January-December 2025 period. US imports, however, fell by 9.4% year-on-year to 121.5 million tons in 2025.

The European Union imported more oil than China in 2022 alone. The following year, it once again ranked second in terms of seaborne crude oil imports. This occurred despite the fact that seaborne crude oil imports to the European Union (EU-27) increased by 4.5% year-on-year to 472.9 million tons in the January-December 2023 period. At that time, the EU market accounted for 21.7% of global tanker crude oil imports. In 2024, oil imports to the EU-27 increased by only 0.2% y/y to 473.6 million tonnes. In 2025, tankers brought 2.7% less oil to fuel terminals than in 2024. In oil importing ports, 460.6 million tonnes were pumped from tankers.

VLCCs and Suezmax Dominate

About 12.4% of the crude oil volume discharged in the EU in 2025 arrived via VLCCs, about 40.4% via Suezmax vessels, and the remainder was delivered primarily in the tanks of Aframax vessels. The largest beneficiaries of EU maritime crude oil imports in 2025 were Rotterdam’s fuel terminals, which received 99.3 million tons of crude oil.

This was followed by Trieste (40.9 million tons), Gdańsk (35.5 million tons), Fos (21.0 million tons), and Le Havre (20.0 million tons). Wilhelmshaven (16.1 million tons), Cartagena (13.3 million tons), Sarroch (11.4 million tons), and Augusta (10.5 million tons) have recorded smaller, yet significant, transshipment volumes.

Recent years have seen significant shifts in supply sources. This has led to shadow fleets, legal fleets, and fuel terminals profiting from new oil transfers. These groups of operators have partnered with forwarding and insurance companies, companies handling transshipments at re-export terminals, and companies handling STS transshipments.

Therefore, seaborne crude oil shipments from Russian ports (including Kazakh oil) have increased significantly, by 4.2% year-on-year in 2025, to 60.6 million tons. However, the record supply of 98.4 million tonnes from 2022 was not achieved. Novorossiysk is still the largest port from which 56.3 million tonnes of crude oil reached EU terminals by sea in the January-December 2025 period, note analysts from Banchero Costa Research.

Russia Still Pumps

Russian exporters have lost a significant position in the global oil trade. But they remain a significant player and currently constitute the fourth largest source of oil tanker supplies to the EU. 13.2% of crude oil reaches EU ports from Russian fuel terminals. Russia fell behind North Africa, which accounted for 19.8% of the crude oil unloaded in the EU by tanker. 18.9% of crude oil was imported from North Sea wells. US suppliers provided 14.1% of the EU’s crude oil demand.

Imports from North Africa (including Sidi Kerir) increased by 4.3% year-on-year to 91.1 million tons in 2025. Supplies from the North Sea (Norway and the United Kingdom) increased by 0.6% year-on-year to 87.2 million tons. Imports from the United States fell by 13.3% year-on-year to 64.8 million tons. Supplies from the Persian Gulf fell by a staggering 27.3% year-on-year to 25.2 million tons, and West Africa delivered 4.1% less oil to Europe year-on-year, reaching 48 million tons.

Producers and operators are trying to wait out the low oil prices, which will not be satisfactory in 2026, and perhaps even 2027, as they were in 2022-2023. In mid-February 2026, OPEC forecasted that global demand for OPEC+ crude oil would decline by 400,000 barrels per day in the second quarter. Despite this, prices will remain at January 2026 levels.

Data released in February of this year indicate a slight supply surplus in the first quarter of 2026. Global demand for OPEC+ crude oil will average 42.20 million barrels per day in the second quarter, OPEC reported in its monthly oil market report on its website. By comparison, onshore and offshore oil wells delivered 42.60 million barrels per day in the first quarter. Both forecasts remain unchanged from the previous month’s report.