Is Armageddon in store for the maritime chessboard of bulk cargo? The Gulf War and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue. As a result, not only oil and gas tanker traffic but also bulk carrier traffic has been halted. Approximately 250 bulk carriers over 25,000 deadweight tons have been blocked.

Bulk carriers are equally important to the countries in this region, providing, among other things, grain supplies and the export of chemical products, including fertilizers. Their significant customers include India and China. Bulk carrier traffic in the Persian Gulf in both directions was only slightly less intense than that of tankers. Ships made approximately 7,000 transits through the Strait of Hormuz annually, equivalent to about 20 transits per day. This demonstrates the scale of the dependence on bulk cargo transport and the crucial importance of this flashpoint in the maritime transport of bulk goods. Will the stalemate in the Persian Gulf be transformed into checkmate?

Openings and Debuts
While market attention will understandably focus on crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, it is important not to overlook the broader importance of the Persian Gulf region for the dry bulk market, notes BRS Shipbrokers in a recent press release. Brokers emphasize that the Middle East Gulf (MEG) region remains one of the few regions in the world with significant exports and imports of dry bulk, and both segments are growing steadily.

On the export side, total dry bulk shipments from the Middle East increased from 145.5 million tons in 2020 to 206.5 million tons, according to BRS Shipbrokers. This represents a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.25%. This growth was primarily driven by Oman and the United Arab Emirates. Bulk cargo imports increased from 130.8 million tons in 2020 to 175.4 million tons. This represents a five-year CAGR of 6.05%.

The largest increase was driven by the market led by the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia was another source of growth. It is estimated that a significant portion of bulk carrier ships (including loaded ones) are at anchor, with 67 ships berthing in ports. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has particularly affected Panamax and Supramax vessels, according to Rob Willmington and Bridget Diakun of Lloyd’s List Intelligence. There are currently 77 Kamsarmax/Panamax vessels in the war zone, followed by 69 Supramax/Ultramax vessels.

There are also 22 handymax vessels, 60 large handymax bulk carriers, 16 post-panamax vessels, and six capesize or mini-capesize vessels operating in the Persian Gulf. It has been determined that 27.5% of the bulk carrier fleet west of the Strait of Hormuz, in terms of deadweight tonnage, is owned by Greek operators. These are either Greek-based operators or Greek-flagged vessels.

Chinese operators account for approximately 15% of the total dwt, while 8.2% are vessels owned by United Arab Emirates-based operators. Japanese operators account for 7.2% (in terms of deadweight tonnage). The bulk carrier access problem affects not only the countries of the Arabian Peninsula but also the Iranian economy.

“Iran is a significant grain importer, as demand for animal feed far exceeds domestic production, and corn accounts for the largest share of grain imports. Although Iran can import grain from Russia via the Caspian Sea, the vast majority of its imports are dependent on access through the Strait of Hormuz,” Kpler analysts emphasize in their latest report.

A Gambit in the Persian Gulf

Although Iran will begin harvesting barley and wheat in a month, Persia is dependent on wheat imports. Around 30% of its wheat for consumption reaches the Iranian market through ports. Iran has an alternative supply route from Russia and can import Russian wheat through ports on the Caspian Sea. This could prove to be an important logistics channel. The feed market will also be replenished in July, when the corn harvest begins. However, this requires clearing ocean shipping routes. Virtually all corn is imported, primarily from Brazil, through the Bandar Imam Khomeini (BIK) port.

Saudi Arabia’s total wheat imports in the 2025/26 season are expected to fall by 10% to 3.1 million tons. Local production is expected to reach 1.1 million tons. Barley imports to Saudi Arabia are projected to increase by 4% to 4 million tons in the 2025/26 season, reports Omar Rabba, from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Corn imports in the 2025/26 season are expected to reach 4.9 million tons, surpassing the record import of 4.74 million tons in the 2024/25 season. According to rice trade analysts, Saudi Arabia imported a total of 1.1 million tons of rice in the 2025 season, and rice exports from the US to Saudi Arabia from January to July 2025 reached 68,269 tons, a 28% increase compared to the 53,437 tons imported during the same period last year.

The estimated area under barley in Saudi Arabia is approximately 2,000 hectares, with production reaching 4,000 tons. The product is intended exclusively for human consumption and used in traditional Saudi dishes, especially during Ramadan. Market research indicates that the average price of 1 kilogram of barley is approximately $1.80.

Imports of wheat, rice, corn, and barley to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are forecast to increase to meet high local demand, according to research by Mohamed Hamza of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Demand for the grain is driven by growing tourism, population growth, and the expanding poultry and dairy sectors. Based on this, total wheat consumption in the UAE is forecast to increase by 3% to 1.75 million tons, while imports are forecast to increase by 2.6% to 1.95 million tons.

 

The USDA has revised its import estimates for the 2023/24 fiscal year upwards to 1.9 million metric tons, which is in line with the official USDA estimate. Rice consumption is expected to increase by 2.6%, or 975,000 tons. Before the war, imports were assumed to increase by 5.5%, or 950,000 tons. Supplies had to grow to meet the increase in consumption. Corn consumption was forecast to increase by 3.5% to 445,000 tons, and imports by 3.3% to 465,000 tons. Forecasts from a few months ago assumed barley consumption would increase by 4.3% to 360,000 tons, and imports by the same percentage to 365,000 tons.

Sicilian Defense

Several leading European operators were profiting from the bulk cargo trade. It was their ships that were stuck in the Persian Gulf. Oldendorff Carriers, among others, has one mini-capesize bulk carrier, two Kamsarmax bulk carriers, and four self-unloading bulk carriers in the Persian Gulf zone, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Vessels belonging to the Greek operator Star Bulk Carriers and Modion Maritime Management (six ships each) have also been blocked. Three ships, including two post-panamax and one panamax, are owned by Iolcos Hellenic Maritime Enterprises.

Bulk carriers are not only used to import grain and other bulk cargoes into the region. A significant amount of bulk cargo is also exported from the Arabian Peninsula. BRS Shipbrokers notes that while the global market is primarily focused on oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the MEG region also plays a key role in the bulk cargo market.

“The Persian Gulf remains one of the few regions in the world with significant bulk export and import activity, and both are growing steadily,” emphasizes broker BRS.

BRS Shipbrokers warns that any prolonged disruption to shipping in the MEG region will likely have a significant impact on the entire dry bulk trade and maritime transport sector. Any prolonged disruption in the region will severely impact the dry bulk sector, BRS brokers say.

Queen’s Gambit

Rising tensions in the Middle East could disrupt trade of nearly 30 million tons of dry bulk cargo per month, threatening over 1 trillion ton-kilometers of freight, according to Rishal Sharan, director of bulk research at Drewry. Sharan estimates that disruptions in the Persian Gulf region are affecting over 7% of global dry bulk transport.

Sharan estimates that the region imports over 150 million tons of dry bulk cargo annually, including grain, iron ore, coal, sugar, rice, steel products, cement, and clinker. It also exports a similar total of fertilizers, gypsum, limestone, and other small bulk commodities. The main destinations for dry bulk exports are India and China, as well as the US, Europe, Canada, and Brazil. Bulk carriers carrying imported goods arrive in the region primarily from Russia, India, China, Turkey, and the US. The MEG region is also important for the food production market for another reason. Refining and chemical plants operate here, and agriculture is also well-developed. Middle Eastern countries are also a key supplier of agricultural and industrial inputs. This region accounts for 45% of global sulfur exports and 27% of global urea exports, according to Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.

Gouveia noted that if disruptions in the region persist for an extended period, and especially if ships completely stop transiting the Strait, the dry bulk market could weaken, particularly in segments other than Cape-size vessels. He believes that demand for imports from MEG countries will likely decline. Finding alternative suppliers for some goods shipped by sea from this region, particularly limestone, may be difficult to replace in the medium term. The same applies, to varying degrees, to other chemical products. The world of maritime bulk cargo transportation is at a crossroads in the Strait of Hormuz.

Will the stalemate in the Persian Gulf turn into checkmate?

Fot. Depositphotos