There will be no convoys. Mines will blow up insurance and block shipping traffic in Hormuz [OPINION]

Over 300 oil and gas tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships are stuck in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Not only has ship traffic been blocked, but crew changes have also been blocked. It’s estimated that 64,000 sailors on board are at risk. Oil and gas trading companies are exploiting the situation to speculate on supplies and prices.

“The Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s ‘death zone,'” Jason Ma, editor of “Forbes,” graphically describes the situation. As a result, “the Gulf of Hormuz has become the world’s most expensive waterway after a 300 percent increase in compensation for the risk of crossing it,” reports Laila Humairah of “Euro News.”

War risk insurance for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz was first suspended, then sharply increased since the beginning of the war with Iran. Just a week ago, Marco Forgione, director of the Chartered Institute of Export and International Trade, claimed in a statement to Euronews that “insurance premiums for ships attempting to sail out of the Persian Gulf have increased by 200% to 300%.” ​​However, he rightly cautioned that “this level of insurance is unsustainable in the long term.”

Source: Lloyd’s List

Insurance 1000% Up

Before the attacks on Iran by Israel and the United States, war risk insurance for a ship passing through Hormuz ranged from 0.02% to 0.05% of the ship’s value. Since the outbreak of hostilities, premiums have theoretically increased to 0.5% to 1% of the ship’s value.

For a ship with a cargo worth $120 million, the standard premium of around $40,000 per voyage has risen to $600,000, or even $1.2 million. This is just speculation. Indeed, insurance and reinsurance have been moored, just like ships in the Persian Gulf.

Maritime insurance in the Persian Gulf has been experiencing significant disruptions since March 2026, with war risk premiums rising by over 1,000% as a result of regional conflicts. “Major insurers are abandoning standard insurance, forcing ships to seek or purchase specialized, expensive, or U.S. government-backed insurance to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz,” Bloomberg and Reuters reported in early March of this year.

Many insurers suspended standard war risk insurance for ships at anchorages and ports in the Persian Gulf region immediately after the first missiles were fired at Iran on February 28, 2026. The U.S. government attempted to salvage the situation.

The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) announced on its website that it was providing $20 billion in reinsurance (Maritime Reinsurance). The goal is to maintain shipping to and from the Persian Gulf. Chubb will serve as the primary insurer.

It is emphasized that Chubb, a “global leader in property and casualty insurance, including political risk and marine insurance, will serve as the primary insurer underwriting policies for eligible vessels.” DFC and Chubb have identified several American insurance companies that will offer reinsurance policies through Chubb and in conjunction with DFC.

A Guide to Iranian Naval Mines. Photo: hisutton.com

Mines in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent bays

Drones and the threat of attacks from small boats have been discussed for many years. Less attention is paid to the threat posed to ships and vessels by anti-ship ballistic missiles, although Iraq used them against ships participating in Operation Desert Storm. Today, such attacks can be expected both in the Persian Gulf and during the passage of a potential convoy through Hormuz.

The relatively narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman is at risk of mines. It should be noted that the Strait of Hormuz has varying depths, and ships and vessels have little room to maneuver. Laying mines in small waters can, therefore, block the passage of a convoy. Experience from the Black Sea warfare shows that a small number of mines practically blocks the waterways leading to ports.

Iran is estimated to possess one of the largest stockpiles of naval mines in the world. Approximately 6,000 different types of these underwater weapons are stored in port warehouses and on ships. Traditional contact mines, bottom mines, and missile mines are readily available for use.

The Islamic Republic of Iran Navy possesses mines that are relatively inexpensive yet dangerous weapons. The Maham-3 is a mine that can be laid in waters to a depth of approximately 100 meters (300 feet). Once dropped from a ship or boat, the mine, with its 300 kg payload, anchors itself and, thanks to its positive buoyancy, remains at a pre-set depth. It is most often moored at the approximate depth of the ship that will be navigating the mined waters.

The Maham-1.1 is also an anchor mine with electrically activated contact sensors. This type of mine, with a payload of approximately 120 kg, is significantly less advanced than the Maham-3. However, it poses a serious threat to passing ships due to its active contact warhead. The mine can remain operational for up to a year.

The Maham-2 is a bottom mine. The mine, with a 320 kg payload, is dropped from ships or boats onto the bottom. Mines have also been transported to the minefield by helicopter. These mines are most often laid in narrow and relatively shallow passages and fairways. The mine is activated by changes in water pressure or the sound of the ship’s technical equipment (primarily the propeller).

Ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz in March 2026. Source: Lloyd’s List

Domestic and Imported Mines

The Maham-7 is a copy of the Italian Manta bottom mine. This type of mine was used by Iraqi naval forces during the Iran-Iraq War. The mine has a conical shape. Once it settles on the seabed, it is difficult to detect by less sophisticated mine-countermeasures systems. Because the warhead contains a 120 kg charge, the mine must be laid along shallow passageways.

The powered mine poses a significant threat to ships and vessels. It is similar to the Maham-2 bottom mine or a short torpedo. Iraq possesses a certain stockpile of these Chinese-made mines. This is the Chinese EM-56 torpedo. It is assumed that it can attack a ship or submarine up to 20 km away. This mine can be laid from various platforms, including submarine torpedo tubes.

Intelligence data indicates that Iran also possesses a number of EM-52 rocket mines imported from China. The T-1 is the export version of this mine. It is equipped with a rocket and a payload hidden in a container. It can be moored to the seabed at a depth of approximately 200 meters. The rocket is launched from the container upon receiving a signal from sensors indicating the detection of a ship or vessel. Iraq has also introduced mine sets imported from Russia.

A number of MDM-3 seabed mines (the export version of the UDM-3) have likely been purchased. These 1.58 m (5.8 ft) and 450 mm (1.58 in) diameter mines with a 200 kg warhead can be dropped from aircraft or helicopters. The Russians carried out such an operation using a Be-12 aircraft to block the seaways to Odessa. The approaches to the port were blocked using UDM-2 and UDM-3 seabed mines.

Iran possesses several conventional submarines, including Russian Kilo-class vessels (877E, such as the ORP Orzel). These can be used to carry and lay mines. Submarines can covertly lay mines in deeper waters or at the entrances to the Strait of Hormuz, note editors from the “Lviv Herald” and “Prognoz News.”

From the experience of the Black Sea war, we know that mines practically shut down entire waters and sea lanes. The additional threat of drone and anti-ship missile attacks will make it virtually impossible for any convoys to operate through the Strait of Hormuz. And it’s hard to find a silver lining.