Operation Epic Fury has unleashed a cataclysm. Today, the movement of ships, vessels, and aircraft in the Persian Gulf carries a high risk of catastrophe. On Monday (March 2), leading ship insurers from the International Group of P&I Clubs terminated war risk insurance for vessels using Iranian waters, the Persian Gulf, adjacent areas, and the Strait of Hormuz.

The first day of Operation Epic Fury saw a significant reduction in oil and LNG shipments from Persian Gulf ports and a record number of AIS disruptions. News agency reports suggest that the Iran-US war and the resulting closure of the Strait of Hormuz have led to congestion on maritime connections.

750 ships have suspended sailings, including 100 container ships. Jeremy Nixon, CEO of Ocean Network Express (ONE), said that approximately “10% of the global container fleet” is stranded in the region, according to Reuters’ Lisa Baertlein. He added that all containerized cargo will “start to back up” at transshipment hubs and key ports in Europe and Asia due to congestion on liner services.

ONE is a joint venture established by Japanese shipping lines Nippon Yusen Kaisha (9101.T), Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104.T), and K Line. Since August 2025, ONE has operated a service to the Baltic Hub. PLS (Poland Shuttle) is operated by Ocean Network Express. The PLS service serves container terminals on the Hamburg, Rotterdam, Gdynia, Gdańsk, and Hamburg routes. A feeder with a capacity of approximately 1,100 TEU is responsible for container transport.

The termination of the insurance policy will take effect practically at midnight on Thursday. However, new rates and terms are already being negotiated, at significantly higher amounts than before. Shipments in the Persian Gulf region were approximately one-third lower than usual. According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) PortWatch, tankers accounted for approximately 60% of the traffic between ports.

Bulk carriers generated approximately 17% of the traffic, and container ships 16% of the transits in the area of ​​”Operation Epic Fury.” It was observed that tankers were primarily operating in GPS interference conditions, and satellite systems failed to ensure safe navigation. Positioning systems became unreliable on the first day of the war.

As a result, no shipments by large tanker operators through the Strait of Hormuz have been detected since Saturday night. A total of 72 ships passed through the narrow passage to the Gulf of Oman on Saturday, compared to 116 the day before, but this is not a record low for traffic in the region, caution Bridget Diakun and Tomer Raanan of Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

   Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Suspended Shipments and Insurance

Since the missile attack on Iran, more than 1,100 vessels have experienced AIS interference. Twenty-one new jamming sites have already been identified. Data from ships and surveillance systems indicate that vessels were mispositioned at airports, over the Barakah nuclear power plant, and onshore in Iran, Oman, and the UAE, Windward reports in a recent statement.

Oil and LNG tankers affiliated with European-flagged operators have suspended or changed course, or have passed through vulnerable areas without satellite navigation systems. Windward states that “Some VLCC navigators have observed their AIS signals being redirected to multiple false locations.”

Shipowners have already advised charterers not to risk transiting the Strait of Hormuz, according to Lloyd’s List findings. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen by 81% since the US and Israel launched coordinated attacks on Iran, but senior trade sources have confirmed that some, mainly Greek, shipowners have already begun discussions about returning to shipping, according to Bridget Diakun and Joshua Minchin of Lloyd’s List Intelligence.

Shipping from the Persian Gulf was halted by operators when, on Monday (March 2), leading ship insurers from the International Group of P&I Clubs, including Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, London P&I Club, and American Club, terminated war risk insurance for ships using Iranian waters, the Persian Gulf, adjacent areas, and the Strait of Hormuz.

Preliminary estimates from Marsh over the weekend indicated that short-term increases in ship insurance rates in the Persian Gulf could reach 25% to 50%, but this occurred before at least four ships were directly hit, Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported.

Crude oil, fuel, and LNG cargoes to ships planning to transit the Strait of Hormuz have been effectively halted. More than 150 tankers have been anchored outside the war zone, according to satellite observations. About 9% of the main VLCC fleet is trapped in the Central Eastern Gulf.

AIS at the Power Plant and Airport

According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence (AIS) data, 22 VLCCs loaded with crude oil and not subject to sanctions are moored north of the Strait of Hormuz. This was determined based on calculations of tanker drafts observed by satellite systems and AI. VLCCs used as floating storage facilities and partially loaded vessels were excluded from this group.

This group likely also includes vessels carrying Iranian crude oil. Deliveries from Iranian terminals, particularly to China and India, have approached the level seen since the lifting of sanctions, according to data from Vortex analysts.

A number of VLCCs loaded with Iranian cargo are currently located north of Hormuz, according to satellite observations. Satellite images taken on the morning of March 2 showed that anchorages near Iran’s main export terminals on Kharg Island were deserted. Loaded tankers were still anchored there on Friday.

AIS signals of oil and LNG tankers have also been identified as vessel positions in the area of ​​the Barakah nuclear power plant and nearby waters and coastlines. Many vessels are being identified in the territorial waters of the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Oman.

Windward has identified at least 21 new clusters causing disruptions to vessels’ AIS systems. Tugboats and offshore vessels are among the dozen or so vessels whose positions have been reported at Al Hamra Airport and the surrounding areas. Ship signals in the area of ​​Ras Al Khaimah Airport (Ras Al Khaimah, IATA: RKT, ICAO: OMRK) indicate real threats and disruptions not only to ships and vessels but also to passenger and military aircraft.

The market is currently monitoring the decisions of operators who operate Chinese and Iranian tankers. For now, there is no indication that shipping companies are willing to risk resuming oil transport. Lloyd’s List found that “Trade sources confirm that only a few shipowners are currently inquiring about returning to the Strait of Hormuz. Brokers are waiting for insurance companies to be ready to provide additional insurance for the transit of oil and gas from the affected areas. At this time, shipments have effectively ground to a halt. Around 20% of global oil and gas exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz.”