Changes in ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Lloyd’s List Intelligence

Blockages at sea…
Blockages in the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Suez Canal have already disrupted the supply of gas, oil, and refined products. The flow of containerized and bulk cargo, particularly grain, feed, and fertilizers, has changed. Operators are making adjustments to sea-land transport chains, and shippers are revising logistics plans for the supply of industrial and consumer goods. Lloyd’s List analysts, who have been closely monitoring the situation, noted: “After two days of a two-week ceasefire that promised the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, shipping traffic has declined compared to the previous low tonnage, and conflicting political statements have paralyzed the industry with uncertainty. On Thursday morning (April 9), only three ships over 10,000 deadweight tons (DWT) passed through the Strait of Hormuz, including two bound for Iran. Tehran is seeking to consolidate control of the key energy transshipment point by introducing a new transit system.”

Today, we know that rising energy commodity prices will impact trade costs and the functioning of economies. This will be particularly felt by countries with high debt levels, significant dependence on imported energy resources, and inflexible budgets. Revisions to trade and economic growth forecasts for leading economies began as early as March 2026. Until recently, global economic growth was forecast at 3.3% by 2026 and 3.2% by 2027, and was slightly revised upward in early 2026 since the publication of the October 2025 World Economic Outlook. These forecasts were based on continued strong investment in new technologies and governments focusing on fiscal and monetary support for economies.

It was assumed that after the tariff wars, many governments would prioritize flexible financial policies and support for the private sector. The World Bank concluded that these actions would offset changes in trade policy, including protectionism, prohibitive tariffs, and non-tariff measures.

…forecast adjustments
Based on its assessment of the economic situation in March 2026, the World Bank projects “limited stability” in the global economy, characterized by GDP growth of around 3.3%, moderate inflation, and resilient, though less tense, labor markets. The International Trade Organization is more cautious in its forecasts.

Trade forecasts to 2027 after revisions. Source: WTO “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” March 2026

According to analysts, “global merchandise trade volume increased by 4.6% in 2025, exceeding the 2.4% growth projected in the October 2025 Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, but close to the baseline forecast of 4.1%.

Even before the conflict in the Middle East began, merchandise trade growth was predicted to slow to 1.9% this year and then rise to 2.6% next year. “However, if the oil price shock resulting from the conflict proves persistent, growth in the volume of global merchandise trade could slow to 1.4% this year and then increase by 2.8% next year,” forecasts the WTO’s March 2026 Global Trade Outlook and Statistics. The report was prepared by a team of analysts led by Robert Staiger, WTO Chief Economist and Director, Economic Research and Statistics Division.

The WTO cautions that, “On the other hand, there is also some potential for growth if the conflict is short-lived and AI-related spending remains high throughout 2026 and into 2027, in which case merchandise trade growth could reach as much as 2.4% this year and 2.7% next year.”

UNCTAD experts suggest in the current situation: “Policymakers should restore fiscal buffers, maintain price and financial stability, reduce uncertainty, and implement structural reforms.” Today, we are facing a situation where, for many economies, the disruptions caused by the Gulf War are translating into higher import and operating costs. Governments are urgently attempting to adjust fuel and energy prices. This, in turn, is disrupting the financial conditions of businesses and households. The factors that determine the maintenance of the projected growth and development rates of economies, both micro- and macroeconomic, are changing.

Trade Growth Remains Strong but Uneven
According to UNCTAD, “some emerging economies continue to demonstrate resilient demand and support global trade flows.” Global trade growth remained robust until early 2026, with continued growth in the supply of both goods and services. However, growth in services revenues has slowed in recent quarters.

Regional Shares in World Trade. Source: Christine McDaniel, Cristina Constantinescu, World Bank Blog.

Some of the growth in sales of goods and services measured in current prices is the result of higher prices, not increased supply. This is well illustrated by aggregate data compiled in “Trade and Development Chart: Global trade expands in 2025, exceeding post-2020 average pace,” by Christine McDaniel and Cristina Constantinescu on the World Bank Blog.

It is clear that this growth was largely driven by developing regions, particularly in East Asia and Africa, as well as by dynamic trade between countries of the South. This was reflected in the supply of cargo at ports and on ships.

UNCTAD emphasizes that “This reflects the growing role of developing economies as engines of global trade.” Weaknesses are also evident in emerging economies that are unable to fully leverage their existing manufacturing potential. A UN Trade & Development study states: “The uneven distribution of export earnings means that many countries still struggle to fully capitalize on these benefits.”

Import and export growth, % difference from the global average, 2025. Source: UNCTAD estimates.

“Connector economies”

Due to the ongoing decline in trade between the United States and China, new “connector economies” have emerged. These economies help maintain global trade flows despite the increasing fragmentation of commodity flows. A similar situation has occurred with crude oil supplies from Russia. Supply chains have become infused with intermediaries, shadow ship operators, and terminals in developing countries.

Import and export growth, % difference from the global average, 2025. Source: UNCTAD estimates.

For some developing countries, this shift has not only provided them with a role in intermediating trade. Integration into global logistics chains has generated demand for infrastructure investment. UNCTAD notes that “new opportunities for attracting investment and integrating into global value chains have emerged.”

This dynamic reflects a reconfiguration of trade flows, with some countries increasing trade with both major economies [China and the United States – MG]. UN experts state that “connection economies” are emerging in the face of declining trade between the US and China.

Although manufacturing drives growth, risks remain. Rapidly expanding manufacturing plays a significant role in global trade. The electronics and high-tech goods sectors play a particularly important role. These are key industries driving global trade growth. Christine McDaniel and Cristina Constantinescu expose this on their blog.

Machinery and electronics to drive global trade growth in 2025. Source: Christine McDaniel, Cristina Constantinescu, World Bank Blog.

Machinery and electronics on maritime routes
“Machinery and electronics drove global trade growth in 2025, fueled by growing demand for AI infrastructure and automation,” McDaniel and Constantinescu point out, adding: “Other important factors were chemicals, plastics, and rubber, which are key raw materials in dynamic manufacturing sectors such as electric vehicles, aerospace, electronics, healthcare, and AI-related infrastructure.”

In today’s geopolitical turmoil, the trick will be to “maintain trade that is conducive to development.” The UNCTAD report emphasizes the importance of maintaining open and predictable trading conditions in the face of growing strategic uncertainty. Therefore, “Strengthening cooperation, reducing fragmentation, and ensuring full participation of developing countries in evolving trade structures will be crucial to fostering inclusive and sustainable development.” There was a noticeable growing demand for minerals and resources containing rare elements and critical components for the production of high-quality products and electronics. The importance of those countries that could increase the supply of iron ore, copper, and gold was clearly growing. This reflects the development of industries and the directions of economic development dictated by governments. The wars in Ukraine and the Persian Gulf sparked demand for armaments and new technologies in maritime transport and logistics. In 2026, we will see this in ports and on sea routes.

Sztuczna inteligencja i elektronika napędzają wzrost handlu międzynarodowego. Źródło: UNCTAD