Logistics operators are once again scrutinizing key passages and other waters at risk of blockage, damage, or destruction of ships and cargo. The most common focus is the disruption of energy supplies. Economic globalization has led to such a decentralized production that the economies of many countries cannot operate without the efficient flow of containerized goods, oversized cargo, and a regular inflow of bulk cargo and products.

Today, attention is primarily focused on the fact that a vital source of oil and gas supplies to Europe and Asia has been blocked as a result of the attack on Iran by Israel and the United States. What Iran had long predicted has come to pass. The Strait of Hormuz has been closed to regular shipping traffic. Over 300 ships are stranded in the Persian Gulf and western ports of the Arabian Peninsula. But the Strait of Hormuz is not the only bottleneck for supplies of oil, gas, and petrochemical products.

There are several important passages on global trade routes, the blockage of which could disrupt the global energy and chemical industries, as well as the production of industrial and consumer goods. Blocking even a single sea route, as was the case with the Red Sea, has proven to pose a significant threat to the continuity of energy supplies and trade. Now we are witnessing disruptions caused by the blockage of the passage between the Strait of Oman and the Persian Gulf.

Map: SATBAŁTYK, IO PAN, satbaltyk.iopan.pl, Prepared by: Marek Grzybowski

Baltic Sea Blocked?

When observing the Far East, we perhaps devote too little time to the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. And in the Baltic Sea, installations are burning in two key ports exporting crude oil to major global customers: Primorsk and Ust-Luga. These are the two largest Russian ports, ensuring oil supplies via the Baltic Sea, including from Turkey and India.

According to Bloomberg estimates, during peak periods, these ports pumped approximately 1.7 million barrels per day onto tankers. Of this, approximately 1 million barrels per day were exported via Primorsk and 0.7 million via Ust-Luga. This represents almost 45% of Russia’s oil exports by sea.

Source: U.S. Energy Information and Administration (EIA)

In a worst-case scenario, military action can also be expected in locations other than Russian terminals. Blockades of passages through the English Channel have occurred before, with ships being attacked. The Baltic Sea also saw effective blockades during World War II. The Skagerrak and Kattegat, the waters around Tallinn, and the exit from the Gulf of Finland were blocked.

Vulnerable waters are narrow passages on heavily trafficked global sea routes. They are crucial not only for the global supply of energy resources. They are also strategic for maintaining the continuity of maritime trade in industrial and consumer goods, including food and the fertilizers necessary for its production.

Strategic Oil

Today, the most common emphasis is on the importance of uninterrupted supplies of crude oil and liquefied natural gas, as suppliers and operators trading in crude oil, gas, refined products, and chemical products have exploited the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz to raise prices. Owners of container ships, general cargo ships, ro-ro ships, and bulk carriers have increased freight rates. Others have added a fuel surcharge to their cargo.

As recently as early as 2026, OPEC forecast that global oil demand from the OPEC+ group would decline by 400,000 barrels per day in the second quarter. Global demand for OPEC+ oil was expected to remain at an average of 42.20 million barrels per day in the second quarter, OPEC announced in its monthly oil market report on its website. In the first quarter of this year, supplies were estimated to remain at 42.60 million barrels per day. Both forecasts were revised in March of this year. This resulted in a sharp increase in the price of a barrel of oil.

The total fleet of tankers with a deadweight capacity of over 60,000 tons currently stands at 2,223 units, totaling 448.32 million dwt, according to experts from Banchero Costa Research. As a result of the blockade, approximately 150 oil tankers are stuck in the Persian Gulf. More than 320 oil and gas tankers were among at least 2,190 commercial vessels trapped in the Persian Gulf on Wednesday as a result of the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, reports “Arab News” on April 2, 2026. The website cites new data.

The Persian Gulf. Source: Windward

Ships at Anchor
Among the blocked ships are 12 very large gas carriers and 50 VLCC crude oil carriers. According to Kpler, about six ships pass through the strait daily, citing Arab News. During peacetime, between 120 and 140 ships passed through this route daily.

The ships primarily depart from the Persian Gulf through the Iranian-controlled corridor near Larak Island. According to Lloyd’s List estimates, at least 48 ships, including several shadow vessels, have used the passage between the Straits of Oman and Persian Gulf since mid-March.

Most of the oil tankers have ties to Iran or countries with trading ties with the country. Other operators granted permission to exit the Persian Gulf faced fees of up to $2 million, known as “Tehran fees,” according to Arab News.

Currently, 892 VLCCs (Vehicle Light Commercial Vessels) are engaged in crude oil transport, representing 40% of the total fleet in terms of units. The Suezmax crude oil fleet comprises 621 vessels, representing 28% of the fleet in terms of units. Crude oil is transported by 658 Aframax vessels, representing 30%. Only 52 Panamax vessels, representing 2% of the crude oil tanker fleet, are used for maritime transport.

Source: Banchero Costa Research

Oil in the EU and Poland
Oil flows into the European Union via tankers, some of which must pass through narrow passages. Entry to the Baltic Sea is essentially through the straits between Denmark and Sweden. This means that if these passages are blocked, countries in the region could be cut off from the supply of goods, including crude oil and LNG. Not to mention weapons.

In 2025, global crude oil supply via maritime routes increased by 2% year-on-year to 2,224.7 million tons, excluding cabotage trade, according to calculations of cargoes based on tanker tracking by LSEG. In 2025, the European Union was the second largest importer of crude oil by sea. China overtook the EU in the oil demand market, as EU countries reduced imports by 2.7% year-on-year between January and December 2025.

Last year, 460.6 million tons of crude oil were pumped through fuel terminals to European refineries. The European Union’s supply market was concentrated in North Africa and the North Sea. However, supplies from the Persian Gulf were significant on the global market, with volumes increasing by 1.7% year-on-year to 883.4 million tons in 2025. Arab countries accounted for 39.7% of seaborne crude oil trade.

Note that virtually 100% of crude oil reached Poland by sea. Ninety percent of the raw material was supplied to our refineries by three countries: Saudi Arabia, Norway, and the USA. Additional supplies came from oil fields operated by Nigeria and Guyana. In 2024, Polish refineries processed approximately 27.6 million tons of crude oil. The trend is expected to be similar in 2025.

In 2025, over 38.65 million tons of crude oil and products were pumped from ships through Naftoport’s pipelines. In March, 3 million tons of crude oil and nearly 0.5 million tons of refinery products were received. This was approximately 13% more than in February of this year, PERN reported.

Source: Vortexa. Graphic: EIA

Burning Terminals and Refinery
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense announced that in the last week of March, “the Armed Forces of Ukraine carried out a series of coordinated, precision attacks on infrastructure in Russia’s Leningrad Oblast.” The justification was that facilities enabling the export of Russian oil “support the aggressor’s war machine. Attacks on Russian ports on the Baltic Sea have blocked a significant portion of Russian oil exports.” This means that the Baltic Sea region has effectively become a theater of war, not just a so-called hybrid war.

On March 26, drones attacked crude oil distillation facilities and two large storage tanks at the KINEF (Kirishinefteorgsintez) refinery in Kirishi. The Surgutneftegaz refinery, located in the Leningrad Oblast, can process up to 21 million tons of crude oil. It was attacked because it is one of Russia’s largest refineries and one of the most important for the operation of this industrial region. The Kirishi refinery accounts for over 6% of Russia’s refinery production. It is emphasized that the destruction of a significant portion of the installation “results not only in disruptions to oil exports but also directly impacts fuel supplies (diesel, aviation fuel) to Russian forces.”

On March 24, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked a complex of storage tanks and marine transshipment terminals at the NOVATEK complex in Ust-Luga. Another drone attack on the facility took place on the night of March 29. The attack caused significant damage and a fire. The Ukrainian Ministry of National Defense justifies the destruction of the installation by stating that “Ust-Luga is the main ‘gateway’ for Russian exports to the Baltic Sea. As Russia’s largest port on the Baltic Sea, it is one of the key hubs through which Russia exports crude oil and petroleum products, including via so-called ‘crude oil’ vessels.” Shadow fleets.”

Last year, Russia exported over 30 million tons of petroleum products through the port of Ust-Luga. The NOVATEK industrial complex in Ust-Luga produces the highest-value petroleum products, including crude oil, kerosene, and diesel fuel, destined for export markets. It was attacked because “damage to maritime transshipment terminals significantly slows down or completely stops the loading of fuel for export. This leads to direct losses in foreign exchange earnings, which finance the military operations,” the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense explained.

Targets of Ukrainian attacks on Russian port facilities and refinery. Map: SATBAŁTYK, IO PAN, satbaltyk.iopan.pl, Prepared by: Marek Grzybowski

Baltic Theater of War
The Transneft Primorsk oil terminal was attacked on March 22 and 23. “The Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the oil transshipment infrastructure and storage tanks at the Transneft Primorsk oil terminal. Significant smoke and fire were reported,” reports the Ukrainian Ministry of National Defense. This is the largest oil export port on the Baltic coast, transshipping up to 60 million tons of oil annually.

The Ukrainian Ministry of National Defense is destroying the export infrastructure of crude oil and products because “systematic attacks on such terminals force tankers to wait at anchor, increase ship insurance costs, and force Russia to seek more complex and costly ways to bypass the damaged infrastructure.” The Ukrainian Ministry of National Defense emphasizes: “Blocking the export of crude oil and petroleum products through the Baltic Sea deprives the Russian budget of billions of dollars, which are directly converted into missiles and ammunition.”

Ukrainians emphasize: “Successful long-range attacks exceeding 900 km highlight the inability of Russian air defense systems to protect critical infrastructure even in deep rear areas. Thus, the Baltic Sea region has shifted from a ‘safe hub’ to a high-risk zone for Russia.”

The transfer of real war to the Baltic theater of operations cannot be viewed in a localized context. These are real military operations, even though civilian facilities are targeted. Land installations are not the only targets. From observing operations in the Black Sea and the Persian Gulf, we know that ships are also targeted. Mining routes leading to ports and blocking passages are other ways to combat the enemy. Could these types of actions appear in the Baltic? For now, considerations on this topic are more the subject of debates and conferences than of real organizational solutions.