As the Gulf War enters another month with no clear end in sight, the question arises: how will restricted shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz impact the Polish economy in the long term?

Recent results presented by the Port of Gdansk Authority show a significant increase in seaborne goods imports in the short term. In the first quarter, approximately 10 million tons of crude oil and fuels, and over 6.5 million tons of containerized goods, were imported to Gdansk. In the first two months, crude oil was imported at around $60 per barrel, at reasonable prices. In the last two months, a barrel of oil even cost twice as much. On May 1, 2026, a barrel of oil cost around $101.94, according to tradingeconomics.com.

Before the United States and Israel launched their attacks on Iran in late February, approximately 3,000 ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz each month, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz were estimated to be responsible for 15 million barrels of crude oil and other petroleum products per day, according to data from the Kpler analytics firm, which is about one-fifth of the global oil trade, recall Lou Robinson, Renée Rigdon, Lauren Kent, Henrik Pettersson from CNN.

Carriers are introducing additional emergency fuel surcharges (EFS) and peak season surcharges (PSS) from May 1, 2026. In early April, CMA CGM announced that it was introducing additional surcharges of USD 300 for 20′ and USD 600 for 40’/40′ HC/45′ from May 1, 2026, until further notice.

New freight rates were increased from all ports in Northern Europe, including Poland and the Baltic countries. This applies to deliveries to the US East Coast, US West Coast, the Gulf of Mexico, and the eastern coast of Mexico.

Operators and global logisticians took advantage of the situation to manipulate rates even on routes that are not at risk of war. Marek Tarczyński, CEO of Terramar and PISIL, sounded the alarm in April of this year. on social media: “The widespread introduction of War Risk Surcharges (WRS) and other surcharges by container shipping lines is frustrating freight forwarders and shippers who believe the method for determining these surcharges is opaque and provides no additional protection, priority, or other benefits in handling shipments.”

While many rates for the Gulf region are quoted in TEU, the combination of rising spot rates (often exceeding $4,000/TEU) and surcharges exceeding $1,500/TEU also means changes in the FEU segment.

40-foot container rates (FEU) in the war-affected region often exceed $6,000-$7,000 due to war risk surcharges. Freight also increased on non-war risk routes, as immediately noted by the Shanghai Freight Index (SCFI). This trend is also reflected in the bulk cargo indices.

Poland-Middle East Trade

The government reacted quickly by introducing fuel price regulations, which effectively halted the inflationary effect in March and April of this year. Such protection was no longer provided to producers dependent on imported raw materials, components, or finished products, such as solar panels or wind turbine components.

We import gas, crude oil, and petrochemical products from the Persian Gulf region. The decline in trade with the Middle East also translates into significant losses for Polish container and fuel terminals. And that’s not all, as Polish exporters to the region sell over €110 million worth of goods monthly.

Polish yachts and machinery, meat and dairy products, confectionery, furniture, and mechanical and electrical equipment are purchased in the Middle East. As a result of the disruption in the supply of containerized goods, exporters and freight forwarders, shipowners, seaports, and all participants in the logistics chain are losing out.

We can expect that in 2026, we will feel the adverse effects of the Gulf War on both the demand and supply sides. Rising transportation and production costs will worsen the long-term competitiveness of some export-dependent industries. And since the Polish economy’s situation will not be exceptional, it will be necessary to closely monitor the economic environment, including logistics. The only hope is that, according to EIA forecasts, oil prices in the second half of this year will be significantly lower than in April.