The ghost fleet in the Baltic Sea is part of a deep crisis. Ahead of the Polish Ports 2030 Congress

The Baltic Sea is a sea where we face threats that, along with wars in other regions, have become components of a polycrisis, as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Radosław Sikorski described it in Szczecin at the 12th International Maritime Congress.

During the Congress, Deputy Prime Minister Radosław Sikorski emphasized that Poland’s presidency of the Council of the Baltic Sea States (from July 1, 2025) has changed the perception of security in the Baltic Sea. European Union countries noted its economic and strategic importance, and therefore its protection should be strengthened. The Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs assessed that the Baltic Sea should be protected, among other things, because of the “scrap fleet”—ships, sometimes in poor condition, uninsured, and without a flag, transporting Russian oil, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported on the gov.pl website.

“The eyes of the world are on the Strait of Hormuz.” But these aren’t the only waters falling victim to intensifying rivalry; the same is happening in the Red Sea, the Black Sea. This rivalry and these threats are also present here, in the Baltic Sea,” the Foreign Minister was quoted as saying by gov.pl. Indeed, Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil export ports and a refinery near St. Petersburg have expanded the war from the Black Sea to the Baltic Sea.

The activities of shadow fleets and zombie ships are taking on a new dimension in the context of the wars in the Black Sea and the Persian Gulf, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and the threat of terrorist attacks in the Red Sea. Analyzing the activities of unidentified fleets is a crucial element of the war on maritime routes. Therefore, it’s worth reading the report “Ghost Fleet in the Baltic Sea – the Limits of Tolerance. Russian Pressure and the Coherence of the Western Response.”

Shadow Fleet in a Global Perspective

The exceptionally high level of interest in security in the region is also evidenced by the large participation of the Pomeranian community in the “Summit Talks” event organized by Employers of the Sea in May of this year. The report “Ghost Fleet in the Baltic Sea – Limits of Tolerance. Russian Pressure and the Coherence of the Western Response” is also worth considering during the panel discussions of the upcoming Polish Ports 2030 Congress.

As evidenced by observations of the situation in the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea, any disruption to maritime transport routes has a local impact on a specific port. This study is particularly important because Poland’s political activity during its presidency of the Council of the Baltic Sea States has changed the perspective on the interplay of interests and security in the Baltic Sea region.

– European Union countries have emphasized that the region is economically and strategically important, and therefore its protection should be strengthened. The Polish Foreign Minister assessed that the Baltic Sea should be protected, among other reasons, because of the “scrap fleet,” meaning ships, sometimes in poor condition, uninsured, and without a flag, transporting Russian oil, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized on the gov.pl website.

Ghost Fleet – Scale and Consequences

The difficulty of protecting waters accessible to ships lies in the fact that “Europe has implemented sanctions on Russian oil. However, Russia has created a system through which it can circumvent them,” writes Zuzanna Nowak, Managing Director of the Opportunity Institute for Foreign Affairs, which issued a report in April of this year: “Ghost Fleet in the Baltic – Limits of Tolerance. Russian Pressure and the Coherence of the Western Response.”

She emphasizes that “The scale and consequences of the ghost fleet’s activities are still not fully reflected in the way countries in the region are responding to this phenomenon. Simply locating tankers on radar does not solve the problem. The real challenge is to design a response as thoughtful as the mechanism it attempts to limit. This is precisely the purpose of this report.”

The report was authored by Commander Dr. Rafał Miętkiewicz, Professor. AMW, Dr. Michał Paszkowski, and Zuzanna Nowak, Managing Director, Opportunity Institute for Foreign Affairs. They collaborated with a large group of commentators, including: Prof. Andrzej Makowski, Ph.D., Professor at the Faculty of Command and Maritime Operations, AMW; Cdr. Dariusz R. Bugajski, Ph.D., Professor at AMW; Cdr. 2nd Lt. Oskar Draus, M.Sc., Officer of the Maritime Operations Center; and Dr. Paweł Kusiak, Assistant Professor at the Polish Naval Academy.

The report’s value today cannot be overstated. The study is not limited to the Baltic Sea region. The authors illuminate the situation in the Baltic Sea within the broader context of geopolitical and economic systems. Flying false flags, concealing the identity or owner of a vessel, or disguising its true function is nothing new. It has likely existed since the dawn of human history.

The report’s authors provide a contemporary interpretation of the phenomenon, noting that today, “the ghost fleet has become a symbol of a new phase of economic and geopolitical rivalry – from ad hoc attempts to circumvent sanctions to an organized system of transporting raw materials operating outside international law.” Imposing sanctions on individual countries has provoked reactions from governments subject to restrictions.

Logistics of using shadow and zombie ships. Source: “The Ghost Fleet in the Baltic Sea – the limits of tolerance. Russian pressure and the coherence of the Western response.”

 

Action – Sanctions. Response – Shadow Ships

It is noted that the governments of Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela created new logistics networks. The authors write that “Russia gave it a global dimension, transforming it into a significant tool of economic policy and economic warfare.” It should be added that operators from around the world and countries creating demand for sanctioned goods also participated in the development of ghost fleets.

As a result, despite sanctions imposed on the transport of Russian oil, in 2024 the Russian budget received approximately $16.4 billion from oil exports. This was an increase of approximately 5% compared to 2023. The latest data show that Russia’s revenue from oil exports increased in April 2026 for the second consecutive month. This is a result of the lifting of sanctions by the US and the closure of transport through the Strait of Hormuz. Global disruptions in the transportation of energy resources have increased demand for Russian oil, according to the EIA in its “Oil Market Report – May 2026.”

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia’s revenues from crude oil and petroleum products rose to $19.18 billion in April, an increase of $180 million compared to the $19 billion recorded in March. However, on an annualized basis, total revenues for April increased by $6.28 billion compared to the same month in 2025.

This is significant data. It indicates that the ghost fleet supports Russian oil exports, even though it accounts for 17% of global tanker capacity, according to S&P Global, cited by the report’s authors. The latest EIA data confirms the Opportunity Institute for Foreign Affairs’ accurate conclusion that “Russia has built a highly specialized energy transportation system based on flexibility, scale, and adaptability.”

In the report “Ghost Fleet in the Baltic Sea – The Limits of Tolerance. Russian Pressure and the Coherence of the Western Response,” the authors provide a thorough and transparent description of the ghost fleet’s tactics and the logistics of transporting sanctioned cargo. Gaps in sanctions enforcement and problems with applying the law to shadow ships are also highlighted.

Strategies and Recommendations

It is worth noting the strategies and recommendations proposed by the report’s authors in the context of Deputy Prime Minister Radosław Sikorski’s statement during the opening discussion of the Maritime Congress in Szczecin on “Europe on a Strategic Course – Security, Sovereignty, and the Future of the Maritime Economy.”

The decision-making scenarios and pillars of collective response proposed in the Opportunity Institute for Foreign Affairs report constitute a significant contribution to developing realistic political, economic, and military actions today. These proposals should be considered not only by decision-making bodies but also by company managers, representatives of local administrations, and communities. The analyses, assessments, strategies, and recommendations contained in the report are particularly important for maintaining the continuity of supplies to Polish seaports, both large and small.

“Deputy Prime Minister Sikorski also emphasized the economic importance of the Baltic Sea. One-third of our exports outside the European Union depart through our seaports, which in 2025 accounted for nearly one-third (32.3%) of all container turnover in the Baltic Sea,” reports gov.pl.

The Baltic Sea region today is a space and component of a polycrisis. Baltic ports, integrated into the system of global logistics networks, are threatened by escalating conflicts in other regions and geopolitical turmoil. However, there is a chance that in the long term, the Baltic Sea will become a component of a polycooperative system.