The EU is paying for the Gulf War. The EU will be running on expensive Russian and American gas in 2026.
Fot.: Depositphotos, GospodarkaMorska.pl
By Despite restrictions, sanctions, and self-imposed restrictions, Russian gas is flowing by ship to EU gas terminals. In March, the highest price paid for Russian LNG in over a year was spent on gas imports from Russia. The European Union purchased approximately €933 million worth of LNG from Russia, according to TASS, citing information obtained from the Bruegel think tank. In total, Europe purchased €2 billion worth of LNG from Russia in the first quarter.
U.S. gas also cost more in key markets. Since the blockage of LNG transport through the Strait of Hormuz, natural gas prices in Europe and Asia have diverged from those in the United States. Futures prices for liquefied natural gas deliveries to the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the European reference price, rose to $14.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the week ending April 24. Europeans were paying 35% more for U.S. gas than before the lockdown, according to Bloomberg L.P. analysts.
In the first quarter of this year alone, imports of American LNG increased by 27%. EIA analysts predict that the United States will become the EU’s largest gas supplier this year and could account for 80% of LNG supplies by 2028. This will be the case despite American gas being the most expensive option for European consumers. “Europe’s transition from pipeline gas to LNG was intended to ensure supply security and diversification,” wrote Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz. “However, the disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East and the overreliance on American LNG demonstrate that Europe’s plan has failed on both levels,” emphasizes the IEEFA expert.
Record Gas Prices
In Asia, the monthly futures price of the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) index rose by 51% during the same period. Asian countries paid $16.02/MMBtu. Meanwhile, natural gas prices in the US Henry Hub market have fallen 9% since February 28 (the Strait of Hormuz blockade) due to limited opportunities to increase LNG exports in the near future and large domestic seasonal natural gas storage and supplies, explains Jordan Young of the U.S. Energy Information Administration. As a result, the United States has taken first place in LNG supplies to Europe, with a share of 43.6% and €1.6 billion.
Gas prices have risen since the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook
The closure of Hormuz has affected global LNG supplies by more than 10 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), or about 20%, primarily from Qatar’s Ras Laffan export terminal. The EIA projected at the end of April that “U.S. LNG exports will increase, but only by a small fraction of the missing volumes.”
This forecast is based on the U.S. Department of Energy’s approval of increased terminal export authorizations for countries that have not signed free trade agreements (FTAs) with the United States since February. Plaquemines LNG (0.5 Bcf/d) and Elba Island (0.1 Bcf/d) were granted authorizations in March and April. Countries that have not signed free trade agreements account for almost all U.S. LNG exports, reports Jordan Young.
About 2.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of U.S. Department of Energy-approved export capacity is expected to come online between April and December 2026. This will include Golden Pass (units 1-2) and Corpus Christi Stage 3 (units 5-7).
Monthly gross LNG exports from the U.S. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook
In April and May of this year, U.S. LNG terminals are operating at near-capacity levels. This limits further significant growth in natural gas exports. The United States exported an estimated 17.9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG in March, the second-highest monthly export volume. This represents a supply close to the record export of 18.4 billion cubic feet per day in December 2025.
Importers should be aware that terminal export capacity utilization in March was 94% of the maximum export volumes approved by the U.S. Department of Energy, according to the EIA in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook and Liquefaction Capacity File. Exports increased by only 0.6 billion cubic feet per day from the 17.3 billion LNG tankers pumped in February. At that time, the facilities were operating at 91% terminal capacity utilization.
Russia Replenishes EU LNG Stocks
According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, European natural gas stocks ended the winter season at 28%. This is significantly below the five-year average of 41%. Replenishment of storage facilities in EU countries will require a larger number of spot cargoes. This, combined with US terminals operating at optimal capacity, forces them to seek supplies from available sources. Many customers have returned to Russian supplies.
Because US terminals are unable to increase gas supply to the external market, Russian LNG imports to the EU have surged to their highest level since the invasion of Ukraine, reported Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, Lead Energy Analyst at IEEFA (Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis).
LNG import structure by EU countries. Source: Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
Imports of Russian liquefied natural gas to the European Union rose in the first quarter of this year to their highest level since the beginning of 2022, according to an IEEFA report. This is despite the fact that Russian gas pipeline supplies to Europe have been curtailed. However, several EU countries, including Belgium, France, and Spain, continue to purchase Russian LNG. It is delivered by LNG carriers from Russian export terminals. Almost all (97%) of the supplies came from Arctic Yamal LNG facilities and terminals.
The EU imported 6.9 billion cubic meters of Russian gas in the first quarter of this year, according to the International Energy Federation (IEFA). This represents a 16% increase compared to the first quarter of last year. This is the highest import volume since 2022, AFP reported, citing IEFA.
Imports increased significantly in April, with imports increasing by 17% year-on-year. Russia currently maintains its position as the EU’s second-largest LNG supplier, accounting for approximately 14% of total demand. As a result, Russian revenues are rising, and the United States’ position as the EU’s main LNG supplier is strengthening.
