China is the leader in the oil import and stock market [ANALYSIS]

The Chinese economy has secured its resilience against the Persian Gulf oil export blockade. In the January-April 2026 period, crude oil import volumes to China even increased slightly by 1% year-on-year to 161.5 million tons, according to analysts at Banchero Costa Research in their latest report. Over 77% of the crude oil volume unloaded in China in the January-April 2026 period was transported by large VLCC tankers, with the remainder reaching fuel terminals by Suezmax and Aframax vessels.

It turns out that the US missile attacks on Iran and Iran’s response did not significantly disrupt the operations of Chinese refineries, although they significantly altered the logistics of basic raw material supplies. Thanks to the fact that the Chinese chemical industry has not yet slowed down, container terminal operators in the European Union, including Poland, were able to report successes with increased container throughput in imports.

2025 brought some stability, and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz brought volatility to the oil, gas, and chemical production and transportation market. The situation improved in 2025. This followed a slight decline in crude oil supply in 2024. At that time, crude oil tankers transported a 0.2% decrease year-on-year. Last year, refineries increased demand, and tankers loaded 1.8% more crude oil year-on-year, according to Banchero Costa Research.

Instead of Persian Gulf Oil

However, the blockage of ships in the Persian Gulf caused global crude oil cargoes to decline by 3.3% year-on-year between January and April 2026. 690.1 million tons were pumped onto tankers at terminals, according to data obtained by LSEG based on ship traffic monitoring, excluding cabotage crude oil trade.

Crude oil supply markets to China. Source: Banchero Costa Research

Exports from the Persian Gulf decreased significantly by 23.6% year-on-year to 218.8 million tons in the January-April 2026 period. The reduction in supplies in March and April resulted in supply from this region accounting for 31.7% of global seaborne oil trade. This is a significant decline compared to the record supply of around 40% annually.

The supply disruption from the Persian Gulf was not compensated by rapid deliveries from the Russian market, as expected. Major export terminals were attacked by Ukraine, partially crippling their capacity. Therefore, exports from Russian ports (including crude oil of Kazakh origin) decreased by 1.5% year-on-year to 73.8 million tons between January and April 2026.

However, Russia provided a whopping 10.7% of the global supply of seaborne crude oil. The market shortfall was filled by supply from South American wells. Cargoes from this region increased by 29.1% year-on-year to 89.8 million tons. American supplies also stabilized the market. Oil tankers from the US loaded 8.9% more oil than during the same period last year. Tankers transported 66.4 million tons of crude oil from loading terminals between January and April 2026.

Exports from West Africa fell by 8.0% year-on-year to 52.5 million tons. ASEAN suppliers increased exports by 30.9% year-on-year to 42.7 million tons in January-April 2026. Banchero Costa suggests that this “inevitably includes overloaded Iranian and Russian cargoes.”

A Global Importer with Global Stockpiles

China’s economy remains the largest importer of crude oil by sea. In January-April 2026, Chinese port terminals accounted for 23.1% of global crude oil trade. Imports from Chinese refineries increased slightly by 1% year-on-year. By the end of April 2026, 161.5 million tons of crude oil had been pumped from ships through terminals to pipelines leading to refineries. By comparison, the figure for January-April 2025 was 159.9 million tons.

Chinese refineries imported crude oil despite already holding record-high inventories in December 2025. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated in its “Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), March 2026” that China added an additional average of 1.1 million barrels of crude oil per day to its strategic oil stockpile in 2025. Therefore, the stockpile reached nearly 1.4 billion barrels in December 2025. Before the conflict with Iran, preliminary information from government agencies stated that “China will continue to increase its stockpiles in 2026.”

– Assuming that both commercial and government-owned crude oil stockpiles in China are part of the strategic oil stockpile, the EIA estimates that government-owned stockpiles in China averaged about 360 million barrels in December 2025, which is similar to the U.S. stockpile level of nearly 414 million barrels during the same period.

China’s commercial crude oil inventories, which include those held at refineries, have risen to an estimated 1 billion barrels by December 2025, compared with 411 million barrels in commercial storage in the United States.

Record crude oil inventories in China, the US, and Japan. Source: EIA.

Rescuing the Balance

European Union countries also supported demand with supplies from markets outside the Persian Gulf. EU-27 imports increased by 2% y/y to 150.6 million tons. The European Union generated 21.6% of global oil demand. ASEAN imports decreased by 7.9% y/y to 85.0 million tons. India’s imports also decreased by 2.9% y/y to 79 million tons in the January-April 2026 period.

South Korean refineries significantly reduced imports of more expensive crude oil. Unloading at fuel terminals decreased by 15.6% y/y to 37 million tons. Japanese refineries also significantly reduced purchases. In 2026, through April, crude oil imports fell 26.6% year-on-year to 28.5 million tons. Imports from American operators, however, increased by 22.1% year-on-year to 43.3 million tons. This could have been Venezuelan crude oil, which was then re-exported.

Mainland China remains the world’s largest crude oil importer. With a 23.1% share, it surpasses the European Union, which generated 19.3% of seaborne oil demand in 2025. In 2025, China’s imports fell slightly by 0.3% year-on-year to 506.5 million tons. In the first four months of 2026, China’s crude oil imports increased slightly by 1% year-on-year. Approximately 77.2% of the crude oil volume unloaded in China (161.5 million tons) in 2026 was transported by VLCC tankers, approximately 5.3% by Suezmax vessels, and 16.8% by Aframax vessels, according to Banchero Costa.

The leading crude oil import terminals in China are located in the ports of Dongjiakou (18.3 million tons unloaded in the January-April 2026 period), Ningbo/Zhoushan (15.3 million tons), Lanshan (14.3 million tons), and Dalian (10.1 million tons). Significant volumes were transshipped at terminals in the ports of Beilun (9.2 million tons), Qingdao (8.2 million tons), Zhoushan (7.8 million tons), Tianjin (7.1 million tons), Huizhou (6.7 million tons), and Zhanjiang (6.6 million tons). Smaller amounts of crude oil were unloaded during the 4 months of 2026 at: Longkou (6.4), Yangpu (5.7), Yantai (5.7), Cezi (5.5), Shuidong (5.2) and Quanzhou (5.0).

Monthly crude oil imports by China. Source: Banchero Costa Research

Supply diversification and record inventories

In 2026, the majority of China’s crude oil imports came from the Middle East, driven by deliveries received in January and February of this year. Thanks to deliveries in March and April of this year, Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as the single largest exporter to China. Tankers delivered 12.9% of the crude oil volume from Russian terminals. Saudi Arabia brought 12.8% of the crude oil to market.

From January to April 2026, China imported 20.7 million tons of crude oil from Saudi Arabia. This represented a 17.3% year-on-year decline in tanker deliveries compared to the same period last year. During the same period, imports from Iraq to China decreased by 39.9% year-on-year to 12.7 million tons. From Kuwaiti terminals, tankers delivered only 2 million tons to China, a 59.0% year-on-year decrease.

Only 7.5 million tons of tankers reached China from the United Arab Emirates, a 21.5% decrease year-on-year. However, deliveries from Oman increased by 10% year-on-year to 12.2 million tons. Direct crude oil shipments from Russia increased by 49.7% year-on-year. By April 2026, 20.9 million tons had been delivered. Imports from ASEAN increased by 3.5% year-on-year to 19.6 million tons in the January-April 2026 period. Banchero Costa emphasizes that “this includes transshipments of Iranian and Russian crude oil. Supplies from West Africa decreased by 6.6% year-on-year to 15.9 million tons. Canadian exporters increased their crude oil supplies to China to 3.9 million tons in 2026, up from 2.9 million tons in the same period in 2025.”

The context of these data regarding China’s crude oil imports and the United States’ exports is important. As of December 2025, the three largest strategic crude oil reserves were held by China, the United States, and Japan, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s “Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), March 2026.”

It is emphasized that China significantly increased its strategic crude oil reserves in 2025. Other significant strategic stockpiles are held by OECD countries in Europe, the Middle East, and Asia. It should be noted that not all data include commercial stockpiles. The EIA makes an exception for China. The ten countries analyzed by the EIA hold approximately 70% of global oil reserves. These estimates do not include the coordinated emergency release of oil in March 2026 by International Energy Agency member states following the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran.