Forwarders ensure market stability even though container freight remains high [MARKET ANALYSIS]

End customers are unlikely to be affected by the slight decline in container freight in recent weeks. Spot rates on the main ocean container routes from the Far East to the US and Europe have fallen this week. Freight is high, but not at the levels seen during the Covid-19 pandemic.

“The decline in spot rates indicates that the triple-digit percentage increases caused by the conflict in the Middle East appear to be reaching their maximum [acceptable to customers – MG],” says Emily Stausbøll, Senior Shipping Analyst at Xeneta, summarizing the second week of July.

Shipowners are “throwing” all the “invented” charges by officials, as well as charges resulting from maritime transport risks exacerbated by geopolitical and market disruptions, into container freight charges. Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates include basic freight and surcharges related to bunker fuel. Rates are subject to THC (origin and destination) fees, ETS fees, and security surcharges. Other fees, such as contingent fees and local charges, may also apply.

Freight from the Far East to the US West Coast fell 5% from the previous week, and from the Mediterranean by 2%, while freight from the US East Coast and Northern Europe fell 1%, with further declines expected. Stausbøll explains that “This change is driven by carriers continuing to increase their offered capacity in key fronthaul routes, and the fronthaul demand that had been driving growth has begun to weaken.”

Freight is high, but not at the levels seen during Covid-19. Ningbo Containerized Freight Index (NCFI). Source: Ningbo Shipping Exchange (NBSE)

This is because “shippers increased volumes at the start of the peak season to avoid an expected increase in the bunker price correction factor in the third quarter and to protect supply chains from disruptions in the Middle East that would impact global trade.”

Freight rates for 2025-2026. Source: XENETA. New FAK rates were applicable from all Asian ports, including Japan.

Containers with surcharges

On June 11, 2026, CMA CGM announced FAK rates – from Asia to Northern Europe. The new CMA CGM Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates were effective from July 1, 2026 (date of loading) until further notice. For 20’GP and 40’GP/40’HC/40’REEFER, the shipowner requested USD 3,700/TEU and USD 6,300/FEU, respectively, for transport from Asian ports to Northern Europe.

The destinations covered deliveries to all Northern European ports (including the United Kingdom and the entire area from Portugal to Finland/Estonia).

Maersk recently changed the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS) from Far East Asia to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean region (E1W/E2W services). On July 14, 2026, Maersk changed the PSS for Far East Asia (excluding South Korea) on routes involving Northern Europe and the Mediterranean region. The price calculation date is July 22, 2026. If the delivery ports are in South Korea, the price calculation date is from August 1, 2026.

Weekly container shipments on ocean routes in 2025-2026. Source: XENETA

Therefore, a surcharge of USD 500 for a 20-foot container and USD 1,000 for a 40-foot container should be expected for shipments originating from a port in the Far East (excluding South Korea) and destined for Northern Europe and the Mediterranean region. From the same region to Syria, the surcharge is EUR 440 for a 20-foot container and EUR 880 for a 40-foot container.

The same PSS applies to deliveries from South Korea to these same countries. The surcharge will take effect on August 1, 2026. Far East Asian countries include Brunei, China, Hong Kong (China), Indonesia, Japan, Cambodia, Mongolia, South Korea, Laos, Myanmar, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan (China), Thailand, and Vietnam.

Current rate levels and structures can always be viewed directly on Maersk’s tariff search page. Other applicable surcharges, including local fees and contingency fees, are also added to the listed rates. These rates are not subject to, and do not affect, any tariffs announced, published, or filed under local regulations, according to Maersk.

Freight Influenced by Government Regulations

“In transactions subject to the US Shipping Act or China Maritime Regulations, price offers or surcharges that differ from the Maersk tariff are not binding on Maersk,” the shipowner states.

The exception is “if they are included in a service agreement or an amendment to a service agreement filed with the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) or the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as applicable.”

The introduction of new mega containerships to the market has not alleviated the unrest in the liner shipping market caused by the exclusion of Persian Gulf ports from the routes. Although the container shipping market has stabilized, operators and insurers have exploited the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz to speculate on spot rates.

“The earlier increase in capacity means that the peak season began in May this year, not July, and logically, it will end earlier, given the lack of growth in demand for container shipping,” says Emily Stausbøll, analyst at Xeneta.

The increased supply of container space on ocean routes resulted in freight rates beginning to decline in mid-July. Shippers who had already shipped loaded containers accepted the higher fees. Meanwhile, shippers who can afford to postpone exports will hold off on exports, waiting for further rate drops.

Top 10 Freight Forwarders Assessed in 2025 Source: SENTRALOG GLOBAL

Forwarders Large and Small

Along with the turmoil in the container transport market, another phenomenon is becoming noticeable. In ocean container transport, it’s not just the carriers who are clearly leaders. A group of operators is also clearly emerging among freight forwarding companies.

“The global ocean freight market continues to grow rapidly, and 2025 will bring significant changes to the rankings,” notes SENTRALOG GLOBAL in its analysis. Currently, four ocean freight forwarders worldwide handle over 3 million TEU annually, according to Luuk de Gruijter, Senior Investments Manager at APM Terminals. Several forwarders stand out.

Sinotrans is among the leaders. The operator is steadily conquering the market and, according to Luuk de Gruijter, “is currently the world’s largest client of maritime transport, handling almost 5 million TEU.” DSV recently recorded the largest market share gains. This is due to the acquisition of DB Schenker. Kuehne+Nagel and DHL remain among the leading forwarders managing ocean container transport.

The leading companies, which have a strong position this year, have clearly demonstrated their strength in the container transport market as early as 2025. Based on TEU volumes verified by SENTRALOG GLOBAL, last year’s top position was occupied by the combined DSV A/S and DB Schenker with 4.56 million TEU. Kuehne+Nagel was second with 4.39 million TEU, followed by Sinotrans Ltd. (4.31 million TEU), and DHL Global Forwarding (3.29 million TEU). Subsequent places were occupied by: 5. CEVA Logistics (1.90 million TEU); 6. Nippon Express (1.79 million TEU); 7. LX Pantos – 1.56 million TEU.

Leading logistics operators use a similar method to liner operators. DSV took the lead in the container transport market after acquiring DB Schenker in April 2025. This was noticeable in both ocean, road, and intermodal transport. Sinotrans is strengthening its position by leveraging the rapidly growing logistics in Asian trade corridors, on land and rivers.

As a result, Sinotrans has steadily climbed to the top and is now the largest ocean freight forwarder in the world, handling almost 5 million TEUs, notes Luuk de Gruijter. DSV has recently recorded the greatest growth, confirming that the right move was made by combining companies and markets. Kuehne + Nagel and DHL remain at the forefront and are leaders in selected markets. Their services have been relatively stable for years, with both companies handling over 3 million TEUs annually.

Considering that global container trade volumes are expected to reach approximately 178 to 180 million TEU in 2025 (UNCTAD), it’s important to recognize that economies function efficiently thanks to a multitude of freight forwarders and agents. These leaders only manage a small portion of the container flow between shippers and consignees.