Saudi Arabia on the maritime oil routes with a 30% drop in exports. Poland with a long-term contract

Saudi Arabia, a significant supplier of crude oil to Poland, remains the world’s leading shipper of crude oil onto tankers. In 2025, Saudi Arabia was the main supplier to Poland, delivering 13.5 million tons of crude oil. Saudi Aramco provided 47% of the oil needs of Polish refineries. This strategic commodity reached the market through the Northern Port in Gdańsk.

Exports from the Persian Gulf fell by 30.7% year-on-year to 299.7 million tons in the first half of 2026, accounting for 29.5% of global seaborne crude oil trade, according to Banchero Costa Research. This represents a significant decline in the supply of crude oil from this region, which accounted for approximately 40% of shipborne oil supplies. This clearly demonstrates the culpability of the countries responsible for the oil market turmoil and the politicians who triggered the Gulf War.

Globally, after a slight decline in 2024, when global crude oil supplies fell by 0.2% year-on-year, the situation improved in 2025, with volumes increasing by 1.8% year-on-year for the year. However, in the January-June 2026 period, global crude oil supply fell by 6.1% year-on-year to 1,016.4 million tons, excluding all cabotage trade, according to LSEG data.

Saudi Aramco (2223.SR) emerged unscathed from the geopolitical and economic difficulties arising in the Persian Gulf. It reported a net profit of SAR 122 billion (USD 32.5 billion) for the first quarter of 2026, a 25.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Adjusted net profit rose to SAR126 billion (US$33.6 billion), a 26.2% increase, driven by an increase in revenue and other sales income to SAR467.2 billion, according to data released by the company’s management.

Saudi Aramco’s valuation as of July 29, 2026. Source: Yahoo Finance

Before the results were announced, Aljazira Capital forecasted that Saudi Aramco would achieve a net profit of SAR 119.6 billion in the second quarter of 2026, representing a 39.7% increase compared to the same period last year, according to Maaal.com. Revenue was estimated at SAR 458.5 billion, and Aljazira Capital reiterated its “Overweight” rating on the stock and a target price of SAR 29.6 billion.

Strong oil revenues were expected to ensure the company maintains its profit target. Sales were supported by stable demand and higher oil prices. Profits rose despite a decline in hydrocarbon production compared to the first quarter. These revenue estimates were linked to the fact that the average oil price in the second quarter was estimated at $99.6 per barrel.

Wartime Rubles and Dollars

Suppliers from Russia, the United States, and other countries also reaped the rewards of extra rubles and dollars for higher prices (around $30 per barrel). Exports from Russian ports (including crude oil of Kazakh origin) increased by 3.5% year-on-year to 117.1 million tons by June 2026. Russia’s share of the oil market rose to 11.5% of global trade. From South America, exports increased by 31.5% year-on-year to 137.6 million tons. The United States increased exports by 20.5% year-on-year to 107.3 million tons between January and June 2026.

From West Africa, oil tanker cargoes decreased by 10.4% year-on-year to 78.2 million tons. From ASEAN, seaborne deliveries increased by 14.7% year-on-year to 59.8 million tonnes in the first half of 2026. During this time, Iranian and Russian oil cargoes were transhipped in some ports, notes Banchero Costa Research.

Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports from January to June 2024-2026. Source: Banchero Costa Research

The PRC economy is the leading importer of crude oil by sea. China’s ports operated at full capacity in the first half of this year. In the January-June 2026 period, China accounted for 20.5% of global oil trade on the demand side. This is despite China’s imports decreasing by 14.2% year-on-year to 209.5 million tons during the period under review. In the January-June 2025 period, 244.1 million tons of crude oil were unloaded at Chinese fuel terminals.

EU-27 imports increased by 1.7% year-on-year to 227.6 million tons. This resulted in EU countries generating 22.3% of global demand. ASEAN imports fell by 9.7% year-on-year to 129.8 million tons. India’s imports decreased by only 0.3% year-on-year to 119.3 million tons. South Korean fuel terminals received a staggering 18.5% year-on-year decrease in crude oil in the first half of the year, with tankers receiving 56.7 million tons. Japan’s imports decreased significantly, by 22.5% year-on-year to 44.1 million tons. US imports, on the other hand, increased by 8.9% year-on-year to 62.8 million tons.

The July “IEA Oil Market Report (OMR)” reported that “Global oil supply rebounded sharply by 4.1 mb/d to 98.8 mb/d in June, as the resumption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz contributed to a partial recovery in production in the Persian Gulf.” The losses from the first half of this year could not be recouped. and “global production was approximately 9.4 mb/d lower than before the war.”

Saudi Arabia – Polish Supplier

Saudi Arabia, a significant supplier of crude oil to Poland, is still the world’s largest exporter of seaborne crude oil. Its supply outpaces Russia, the US, and Iraq. In 2025, it accounted for 14.4% of global seaborne crude oil exports. In 2025, Saudi Arabia’s seaborne crude oil exports fell slightly by 0.4% to 319.4 million tons, excluding cabotage, according to Banchero Costa Research.

For Poland, Saudi Arabia is the main supplier of refinery feedstock, supplying 13.5 million tons of crude oil to Poland in 2025, according to the Polish Organization of Petroleum Industry and Trade in its “Annual Report 2025.” In 2025, the volume of crude oil supplies from Norway (9.8 million tonnes) and Guyana (2.1 million tonnes) increased noticeably.

Saudi Arabia’s monthly crude oil exports. Source: Banchero Costa Research

Saudi Arabia reduced its cargo volume in 2025, following a 4.6% year-on-year decline in exports in 2024. However, more crude was exported than in 2021, when 310.2 million tons were loaded onto tankers. In the first half of 2026, Saudi crude oil exports fell significantly, by 22% year-on-year to 123.5 million tons. During the same period in 2025, 158.4 million tons of crude oil were delivered to the market.

Approximately 91.3% of the volumes loaded in Saudi Arabia between January and June 2026 were transported by VLCC tankers, 6.2% by Suezmax tankers, and 2.4% by Aframax vessels. Maritime transport from Saudi Arabia is using the largest tankers, as Suezmaxes and Aframaxes have been redirected to transport Russian cargo, explain analysts from Banchero Costa Research.

The main crude oil export terminals in Saudi Arabia are: Yanbu (67.1 million tons, or 54.4%, in the January-June 2026 period), Ras Tanura (53.3 million tons, or 43.2%), and Ras al Khafji (3.0 million tons, or 2.4%). The former is the main loading terminal for shipments to Poland. The distance from Yanbu to Gdańsk, via the Suez Canal, is 3,500 nautical miles shorter than from ports in the Persian Gulf.