Maritime trade dependent on blockades in the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 [REPORT]

The maritime gas trade proved resilient to the global disruption caused by the blockade of raw materials from the Persian Gulf. However, gas suppliers quickly exploited supply gaps and stepped in with their own demand. And demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) remains strong since global trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) reached a new record of 436.98 million tons (Mt) in 2025, according to the International Gas Union’s latest “IGU World LNG Report.”

The International Gas Union notes that demand increased by 25.74 Mt over the past year compared to 2024. Producers from 24 supplier markets responded quickly to demand generated by 50 markets. “The growth was driven primarily by higher production in the United States, which increased production by 22.3 Mt year-on-year, as well as increased exports from Qatar, Malaysia, Angola, and Nigeria,” the authors of the “IGU World LNG Report” explain. Canada and Mauritania/Senegal entered the market more strongly in 2025 and recorded their first LNG loadings, increasing them by 2.14 Mt and 1.22 Mt, respectively.

“The report confirms the strong fundamentals that allow the LNG industry to strengthen its medium-term expansion path in the decade to 2035,” optimistically predicts Andrea Stegher, President of the International Gas Union. He emphasizes that LNG supply in 2025 could increase by 6.3% to 437 million tons, as Canada and Mauritania/Senegal joined the ranks of exporters. However, activity in the Gulf of Mexico was significant, as the United States provided the majority of additional exports. A total of 13 new regasification terminals were launched.

Asia: the main LNG supply market

Asia-Pacific remains the largest supply region. In 2025, 138.76 Mt of LNG was released from LNG terminals, with deliveries remaining at a similar level to 2024. North America responded most strongly to global demand, seeing exports increase by 25.3 Mt to 113.91 Mt. The main player here is the previously mentioned United States.

Major LNG suppliers and recipients. Source: “IGU World LNG Report.”

The Middle East was a significant region for liquefied natural gas supplies in 2025. LNG tankers loaded 3.8 Mt more than in 2024. Tankers exported 98.03 Mt of LNG, primarily through the Strait of Hormuz. Production increases in Qatar were significant. Africa added an additional 1.8 Mt to the market, reaching 39.77 Mt of exports. Only exports from Russia decreased by 3 Mt to 30.52 Mt in 2025.

Due to the dynamic changes in the market, these data require an updated commentary. It is important to look at the current market of the main supplier. The impact of the war in the Middle East continues to reshape the global natural gas market, with lower supply and higher prices impacting demand in key markets, according to the latest quarterly market report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The IEA report forecasts that global gas demand will decline by 0.5% this year due to price changes. This will be largely due to lower gas consumption in the energy and industrial sectors. This would represent the third annual decline in demand in seven years, the IEA notes.

Americans – a major player in the gas market

The blockade of the Persian Gulf will not change the fact that, as in 2025, the United States will remain the world’s largest LNG exporter. Last year, supplies from American terminals reached 110.74 Mt. Qatar was the next largest supplier with 81.51 Mt, which fell from second place in the market in the first half of 2026. In 2025, Australia loaded 80.32 Mt of LNG onto tankers.

The Asia-Pacific region generated the largest demand for LNG, importing 168.7 Mt in 2025, an increase of 3.6 Mt compared to the previous year, according to Rystad Energy data. The performance of the US market and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico are also important factors for the gas market.

“Despite expectations of increased demand for air conditioning during the summer and a four-month high on June 4th, Henry Hub futures prices with a delivery date of May 28th have declined since the July contract was moved to May 28th,” Juan Alvarado, Liz Pardue, and Lauren Scott of the American Gas Association report in a market analysis.

July contracts in the US market closed on June 24th at $3.22 per MMBtu. This represents a slight decline of almost 2% compared to the initial monthly settlement. The forward contract remains below the broader forward curve, trading $0.20 per MMBtu below its 12-month average on June 24, suggesting market participants continue to assume higher gas demand next year, particularly in the winter months, analysts at the American Gas Association said.

Gas prices May-June 2026. Source: GMK CENTER

Europe leads growth

The biggest change in 2025 was Europe’s return to the role of a major demand growth center, with imports increasing by 26.1 Mt to 126.2 Mt as the region compensated for lower gas flows from Russian pipelines and replenished storage reserves. Africa also became a significant import-generating region, with gas demand increasing from 2.7 Mt to 9.8 Mt. The lion’s share of growth was almost exclusively generated by Egypt, which then exported LNG.

Asia’s imports decreased by 9.2 Mt to 108.7 Mt. The Chinese economy proved to be a drag on this growth. Demand for LNG in India also declined. China, however, remained the world’s largest LNG importer, with imports of 69.77 Mt in 2025. However, gas import terminals operated less intensively than in 2024, as unloadings fell by a total of 8.9 Mt year-on-year. This is attributed to a milder winter and increased gas supply from domestic wells. Pipeline gas imports from Russia also increased.

Japan is the second-largest LNG importer, unloading 67.37 Mt at terminals. There were no significant changes compared to 2024. South Korea increased LNG imports by 1.7 Mt to 48.67 Mt. In Europe, import growth was recorded in all EU countries.

The import leaders were Italy (+4.4 million tonnes), France (+3.6 million tonnes), Spain (+3.6 million tonnes), Turkey (+3.4 million tonnes), the Netherlands (+2.9 million tonnes), Belgium (+2.5 million tonnes) and Germany (+2.2 million tonnes), as the analysts of the “IGU World LNG Report” list and explain: “Stronger European demand, combined with weaker spot demand in Asia, redirected a larger share of supply from the Atlantic basin to Europe and contributed to a slight increase in the regionalization of LNG trade flows.”

Changes in gas supply from individual regions following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Source: Global LNG Hub, https://globallnghub.com/

Market Storms and Forecast Fluctuations

Recent months have brought considerable uncertainty to financial markets. Investors are grappling with rapidly changing conditions that impact their investment decisions. Fluctuating economic forecasts further exacerbate the uncertainty they face.

Expert analyses indicate that the current situation is the result of numerous factors, including global political tensions, changes in monetary policy, and unpredictable geopolitical events. All of this makes forecasts increasingly difficult to predict.

Faced with these challenges, investors must be prepared for various scenarios and flexibly adapt their strategies. Monitoring the situation and reacting quickly to changing market conditions is crucial.

In the first quarter of 2026, disruptions in the Middle East and increased risk in the Strait of Hormuz altered the short-term dynamics of LNG trade. With Qatar expected to account for 81.5 Mt of LNG supplies in 2025, or 18.7% of global exports, supply risks in the region have quickly exacerbated market sentiment and increased competition for flexible cargoes.

Asian buyers have shifted Atlantic cargoes away from Europe, demonstrating how quickly trade flows can adjust as supply security concerns grow, reinforcing the importance of flexible Atlantic supply, portfolio optimization, and destination flexibility as the market enters 2026.

“In 2026, the LNG trade has entered uncharted waters. The conflict in the Persian Gulf has damaged LNG infrastructure, cast doubt on the prospects for expansion projects in the region, and exposed Asian buyers to flow uncertainty and higher demand,” said Andrea Stegher, President of the International Gas Union.

In his opinion, “LNG’s vital role as an invaluable ‘shock absorber’ in previous energy crises is being put to the test. However, the market reaction shows that the industry has matured.” The ability of a larger and more diversified supply chain to mobilize 40% of spot market volumes helped mitigate the direct impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Zululand Enters the Market

Indeed, the gas market has recovered quite well following the speculative price increase. The management skills of leading gas suppliers and operators to manage risk play a key role. For example, Exxon Mobil has entered into a preliminary supply agreement with Zululand Energy Terminal. An LNG terminal is being built there in Richards Bay, which will provide South Africa with its first LNG import facility. The project is aligned with South Africa’s broader efforts to reduce its reliance on coal-fired power generation and develop its domestic gas market.

Vopak Terminal Durban and Transnet Pipelines are a joint venture established in South Africa. The company will be responsible for the construction, construction, and operation of a new LNG terminal in Richards Bay. The LNG terminal will provide long-term gas reception, storage, marine bunkering, tanker loading, regasification, and transmission services to our customers. Pipelines.

Eskom, the state-owned power utility, is also planning a 3,000 MW gas-fired power plant project. Exxon Mobil is strengthening its position in a promising market with growth potential. Exxon Mobil’s strategic plans assume it will supply over 40 million metric tons of LNG annually by 2030.

Major LNG exporters. Source: Banchero Costa

Inventories Rising, Market Calm

AGA experts found that “gas inventories in the US 48 regions remain well above the five-year average after net injection of 76 billion cubic feet in the week ending June 19th. According to the EIA, net injection in the East and Midwest accounted for nearly 80% of the increase.”

Both regions continue to replenish supplies after winter declines. Combined inventories for the 48 regions reached 2.8 trillion cubic feet this week. This is 5.7% above the five-year average, according to the EIA, but 1.7% below the previous year. However, every region finished the week above its five-year average, and all regions, except the East and South Central regions, reported year-over-year surpluses.

Many Asian markets and Europe also experienced a summer calm. Although, as they emphasize, all gas market observers, the unstable situation in the Persian Gulf region is not conducive to long-term planning of the LNG market, both on the supply and demand side.