100 years to replace fleets with ships with alternative propulsion [ANALYSIS]
Photo: Marek Grzybowski
By The share of new ships with engines using fuels more environmentally friendly than traditional marine fuel has increased to over 5% over the past five years. This is thanks to orders from leading, innovation-focused shipowners. The rate of introduction of ships powered by alternative fuels is 1%, an extremely slow rate, according to the August report “DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050.”
If shipowners continue to replace their fleets at the rate they have over the past five years, only 30% of ships will be able to use environmentally friendly fuels by 2050. If fleet modernization does not accelerate, the commercial fleet with environmentally friendly engines will be replaced within 100 years.
“DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050” provides a solid dose of the latest knowledge on changes in the commercial fleet transformation market. The report covers both shipowner investments and the activities of seaport authorities, as well as the entire alternative fuel production and distribution chain. It turns out that the pace of implementing legislation, administrative orders, and technical restrictions significantly outpaces the financial and organizational capabilities of fleet operators.
The introduction of innovative and ecological solutions is hampered by slow investment processes throughout the production and supply chain of alternative fuels. Only leading seaports have engaged broadly in supporting the decarbonization of shipping. Limitations on the use of alternative fuels also arise at the regulatory level.
By August 2026, “The share of gross tonnage of ships adapted to alternative fuels (excluding LNG tankers) will have increased from approximately 0.4% of the global fleet in 2020 to 5.2%,” DNV analysts determined in a report published in August of this year.
The potential for using alternative fuels in main engines of commercial ships is primarily being implemented in large ships. The number of ships with new engine types has increased six-fold, but gross tonnage has increased almost fifteen-fold, DNV calculates.
Introduction of ships using alternative fuels in 2020-2026. Source: “DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050”.
The trend of “dual use”
Shipowners are protecting themselves against difficulties in equipping their ships with alternative fuels and have adopted the principle of installing dual-fuel engines. The installations that ensure their operation increase the cost of tonnage investments. This extends the investment period. Therefore, operators of the largest ships are choosing to modernize their fleets.
“Virtually all ships adapted to alternative fuels utilize dual-fuel technology,” emphasizes the “DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050.” In this way, shipowners are ensuring the possibility of remaining using traditional marine fuel, which is derived from refining crude oil.
“The most important lesson from the last decade is that transformation rarely occurs in a straight line.” Progress is ongoing, but the chosen path and the pace of change remain difficult to predict, notes Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria, CEO of Maritime, DNV, in the foreword to DNV’s August report.
She emphasizes that the introduction of further regulations and restrictions is not accelerating the decarbonization process, as “the persistent uncertainty surrounding the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) Net-Zero Framework (NZF) has created a more complex decision-making environment for the global industry.”
Expensive Regulations and Innovation
“For an industry built around assets that often operate for decades, this presents a significant challenge. Many shipowners are making decisions today that will shape their fleets well beyond 2050, requiring them to balance current compliance requirements with the need to remain flexible in a changing regulatory environment,” warns Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria.
In 2020, LNG fuel technology dominated commercial vessels. Shipowners first introduced gas systems on smaller vessels. Only 185 ships had systems capable of using liquefied natural gas to power their main engines. In 2020, 538 LNG carriers, 12 methanol tankers, and 14 LPG carriers had such installations.
Status of fleets with LNG and alternative fuel engines. Source: “DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050.”
Over the past five years, many shipowners have opted for additional funding for gas installation. DNV reports that “As of August 2026, 813 LNG carriers and 929 other vessels could use gas from LNG systems as fuel.” Currently, most of these vessels are large vessels with high energy requirements.
The fleet capable of using methanol has expanded. Currently, 112 vessels capable of using methanol as fuel in their main engines are in service. A fleet of 42 methanol tankers can already transport this fuel.
Remontowa and Stena Line led the way
As a reminder, the first conversion of the propulsion system was carried out at the Remontowa shipyard in Gdańsk. Over 10 years ago, Stena Line commissioned the shipyard to expand the power supply system for Stena engines with a system capable of running on methanol. The conversion was carried out in 2015. The ferry was introduced on the Cologne-Gothenburg route, with the option of bunkering methanol in Cologne from tankers.
The propulsion system was developed by Stena Teknik and supplied by Wärtsilä. Engineers from the methanol supplier Methanex Corporation also collaborated on the project. Methanex, through its A subsidiary of Waterfront Shipping, it operates the world’s largest fleet of methanol tankers.
The Methanex fleet consists of approximately 30 modern ocean-going vessels ranging from 3,000 to 50,000 tons deadweight. Approximately 60% of the vessels utilize dual-fuel technology in their main propulsion systems, enabling the use of methanol instead of ship fuel. The project to reconstruct the fuel system of the Stena Germanica ferry was co-financed by the European Union and carried out under the supervision of Lloyd’s Register.
Comprehensive measures to decarbonize shipping. Source: “DNV Maritime Forecast to 2050.”
DNV analysts emphasize that with minor modifications, ships designed to carry methanol can also burn ethanol, a fuel with similar properties. This provides flexibility in the use of fuels for ship propulsion.
According to DNV’s findings, by 2026, 234 LPG carriers could use liquefied petroleum gas as fuel. Furthermore, eight ships could use hydrogen as fuel. Only four ships are designed to use ammonia as fuel.
Progress and Challenges
“The development of low-emission fuel markets remains another key challenge. Significant progress has been made in expanding ships’ alternative fuel options and developing new fuel paths,” notes Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria, CEO of Maritime, DNV.
She emphasizes that “scaling future fuel production will depend on certainty that demand will actually arise, while shipowners need assurance that fuels will be available when needed. Creating such conditions will require continuous investment, a supportive policy framework, and sustainable progress in energy supply chains.”
Port authorities have had to respond quickly to the growing number of ships with gas-powered engines. In Poland, bunkering from tankers at quays has been the focus. Many ports have recognized the need to enable bunkering from ships. The number of LNG bunkering ships has increased over the past five years from 25 in 2020 to 67 in June of this year. LNG bunkers are available to shipowners in the largest ports. Over the past five years, the number of LNG bunkering ships in Europe has increased from 15 to 33 ships, in Asia from 6 to 20, and in America from 3 to 13, according to DNV.
Recently, not only the number but also the size of ships with LNG installations has increased. LNG bunker operators have been adapting to market changes. To meet this demand, the tank capacity of LNG bunkering ships has increased. Of the 67 LNG bunkering ships currently in service, 23 have a capacity exceeding 10,000 m³. According to DNV, the majority of bunkering ships ordered from shipyards have tanks capable of holding 18,000 m³ of gas.
Bunkering alternative fuels is just one piece of the puzzle ensuring the operation of a system for supplying ships with fuels other than traditional marine fuel. Building and maintaining an entire supply chain is currently impossible, even for the largest ports. The high costs of decarbonization and the long payback period do not encourage widespread investment. Decarbonizing the merchant fleet requires the launch and consistent implementation of a comprehensive system for the production and distribution of alternative fuels.
