Shipowners are placing a flood of new orders with shipyards. Contracts for mega-container ships, oil and gas tankers, product tankers, and ro-ro vessels are pouring in. By early 2026, the global fleet’s carrying capacity had reached 2.5 billion tonnes—an increase of 85 million DWT over the previous year—according to a 2026 UNCTAD report.

Shipowners are aggressively expanding their tonnage. Capitalizing on windfall profits driven by the war in the Middle East, they have ridden the market to a peak—a classic “pig cycle” high. Fleets of tankers, bulk carriers, and container ships are growing in the shipyards. In two years, these new vessels will begin entering service. If conflicts subside and the market stabilizes, shipowners face a subsequent downturn—the “pig cycle” low. This is bad news for both fleet operators and their customers.

“Between 2021 and 2026, the global merchant fleet generated gross revenues of approximately $3.1 trillion, and shipowners placed orders for new vessels worth around $824 billion. That represents roughly 26% of those revenues,” said Dr. Martin Stopford at the 18th annual Capital Link Shipping & Marine Services Forum, held in London on September 15 of this year.

Fleet status at the beginning of 2026. Source: UNCTAD

275 million dwt in the shipyard portfolio

– By July 2026, annual order volumes had reached approximately 275 million deadweight tonnes, almost matching the record 274 million dwt ordered at the peak in 2008, recalled Dr. Martin Stopford during his introduction to the panel at Capital Link Shipping & Marine Services in London in September.

At the beginning of 2026, the deadweight capacity of the world fleet reached 2.5 billion t, which is an increase of 85 million dwt compared to the previous year, of which almost 70% were tankers and bulk carriers – informs UNCTAD in the 2026 report. After a decade of rapid expansion in 2004–2013, the increase in the deadweight capacity of the world fleet has remained relatively stable since 2014, with an annual growth rate ranging from 2.7% to 4.2%.

In 2026, there was a remarkable acceleration in orders for new ships. For several years, ships have been covering longer routes with containers, cars, oil and bulk carriers. The use of the growing potential of Chinese shipyards and the increasing acceptance of new ships put into operation already heralds an oversupply of cargo space. Stopford asked in London: could the current order book of ships with a total deadweight capacity of 550 million tonnes lead to another long period of excess capacity?

Ships with alternative-fuel engines in operation and on order. Source: DNV

Operator Course set for dual-fuel

According to *Lloyd’s List*, CMA CGM is preparing an order for twelve 24,000 TEU dual-fuel LNG-powered container ships. The contract is expected to be placed with China’s Yangzijiang Shipbuilding. Meanwhile, *TradeWinds* reports that Maersk has announced plans to build 42 new dual-fuel container ships (capable of running on marine fuel or gas). The estimated value of these contracts is USD 8.9 billion. The fleet expansion program includes a series of large and mega container ships: plans call for investments in twelve 24,000 TEU vessels, twenty-four 19,000 TEU ships, and six with a capacity of 18,600 TEU. GospodarkaMorska.pl reported on this previously.

“So far in the 2020s, the number of new ship orders has been 47% higher than the 2010–2019 average, driven by improved market conditions in key segments, a larger overall fleet, and a growing need for fleet renewal,” explains Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, as quoted by *The Maritime Executive*.

Gouveia adds, “This has resulted in rising prices for new vessels and longer shipyard lead times; it is projected that 57% of the ships ordered this year will not enter service until after 2028.” The situation of MPC Container Ships (a company listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange – MPCC) aptly illustrates this view.

Fleet transport output in ton-miles. Source: UNCTAD

The Norwegian example

MPCC’s $2.2 billion contract backlog, with agreements extending to 2029, will enable the shipowner to weather market fluctuations while simultaneously financing and executing its fleet renewal program. The shipowner reported operating revenues of $116.9 million for the second quarter of 2026, down from $137.9 million in the same quarter of 2025.

EBITDA stood at $95.4 million, compared to $107.4 million a year earlier. Excluding one-off items, EBITDA was $65 million, versus $80.7 million in the prior period. The shipowner holds a charter contract backlog valued at $2.2 billion. Contract coverage stands at 99% for 2026, 85% for 2027, 60% for 2028, and 39% for 2029.

At the end of the second quarter of this year, the shipowner operated a fleet of 48 vessels with a total capacity of 186,000 TEU. Meanwhile, the order book comprised 16 vessels. One new vessel entered service in August. Moritz Fuhrmann, Co-CEO and CFO, explained the rationale behind the fleet expansion: “We continued our fleet renewal process, building on a solid financial foundation. We secured a new $375 million senior secured term loan.”

The shipowner used the loan to finance ten vessels ordered last year. Following the close of the quarter, the operator successfully completed a $107 million private placement that attracted significant interest. This enabled the Norwegian shipowner to restore balance sheet flexibility and bring in new investors.

Tonnage investment forecasts through 2050. Source: Dr. Martin Stopford, *Heading Into A New Era: With Lots Of Cash, A Big Orderbook, & Pressure To Change*. 18th Annual Capital Link Shipping & Marine Services Forum, Tuesday, September 15, 2026, at 116 Pall Mall, London.

Ship contracts and financing

Many shipowners—including those from whom Poland charters LNG tankers—employ a similar policy. The ORLEN Group, through PGNiG Supply & Trading, charters a fleet of vessels managed by foreign shipowners based in Norway and Greece. The construction program for these vessels (valued at nearly USD 5.7 billion) was financed and organized by Knutsen OAS Shipping.

The Norwegian shipowner secured debt financing (loans and leases) from a consortium of international (primarily French) banks—such as Crédit Industriel et Commercial (CIC) and BNP Paribas—with the support of South Korean export credit agencies (e.g., K-Sure).

Today’s market situation mirrors that of the early 1970s, when the oil crises erupted. “Rising oil prices disrupted trade; oil companies scaled back their commitments regarding owned and long-term chartered tonnage, and a much larger share of the tanker fleet shifted to the spot market,” notes Yang Chen. According to data presented by Stopford, the spot market’s share rose from just a few percent to approximately 47% during the oil crisis.

Tanker Market

According to Stopford, the tanker market exemplifies the significant influence cargo owners once exerted on the fleet’s transport capacity. Prior to the 1973 oil crisis, oil companies directly owned approximately 36% of tanker tonnage and controlled another 52% through time-charter agreements. At that time, only about 12% of the fleet relied on the spot market.

Poland attempted to enter this market. “In the 1970s, the Polish merchant fleet acquired nine massive tankers intended to launch a phase of reducing the country’s dependence on oil supplies from the USSR,” notes Michał Banach, an editor at SmartAge.pl. The crisis resulted in the fuel-hungry Suezmax tankers purchased by Centromor in the 1970s frequently sitting at anchor off the Hel Peninsula. This was because, at the time, cargo owners held significant sway over fleet structure and operational models.

Yang Chen observes that “demand was the deciding factor: the client had a relatively clear vision of the future supply chain, while shipowners and shipyards designed vessels based on a strictly defined transport task.” This was the approach taken, for instance, by the Polish Steamship Company’s (PŻM) Tanker Division, which introduced sulfur carriers to the market to fulfill a specific contract between the foreign trade enterprise CIECH and Siarkopol. During a presentation in London, Stopford noted that for many years prior to 2004, annual revenues for shipowners remained at around USD 150 billion. Subsequently, they rose to approximately USD 524 billion. Between 2004 and 2008, the industry generated revenues totaling USD 2.2 trillion, of which roughly USD 774 billion (approximately 35% of that figure) was allocated to fleet expansion.

The current order book is estimated by New-Ships.com at 33,476 vessels. Production is distributed across 69 countries, with Chinese shipyards holding contracts for 14,782 vessels boasting a combined deadweight tonnage exceeding 891.462 million tonnes. Shipowners and Chinese shipyards bear the primary responsibility for implementing the technologies that will determine the profitability of maritime transport over the next 25–30 years of the 21st century. Everyone will face the consequences of ill-advised tonnage investments.