Marine fuel terminals will operate more intensively during the autumn and winter months; the supply of crude oil and petroleum products is set to rise in the fourth quarter of 2026 and the first quarter of 2027. Refinery activity began to pick up in key markets over the summer as seasonal maintenance work concluded. However, refinery capacity utilization remains limited, particularly in the Middle East and Russia.

Geopolitical disruptions and operational halts in the Persian Gulf, alongside damage to facilities in Russia, have been offset by suppliers from other regions. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia played a major role in stabilizing the oil supply market. However, importers relying on Saudi supplies had to contend with significant logistical adjustments.

“Saudi Arabia is once again forced to fundamentally overhaul how its oil reaches customers worldwide, as Yemen’s Houthis are hindering Riyadh’s use of an alternative route that has been crucial to the global economy since the start of the war with Iran,” reports Yongchang Chin, Oil Trading Reporter at Bloomberg News.

Clark Savage of *Energy News Beat* reported that the Iran-linked Houthi movement in Yemen announced on Tuesday, August 18, 2026, that its forces had attacked the Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Jizan—located on the Red Sea coast of southwestern Saudi Arabia—using “several drones.” A Houthi military source told the Saba news agency that the attack was “precise” and carried out in response to alleged violations of Yemeni airspace over the Saada and Hajjah provinces. This marks the third Houthi attack on the facility in about two weeks. The Jizan complex is a modern refinery with a capacity of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd); it began operations in recent years and produces gasoline, ultra-low-sulfur diesel, jet fuel, benzene, and other products.

Refineries and terminals under fire

During the last week of July 2026 (approximately July 25–27), the Houthis claimed responsibility for missile and drone attacks on Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu. Satellite imagery (including from the EU’s Sentinel-2 satellite) and thermal data revealed fires. At least one storage tank was also damaged. The consultancy firm IIR reported damage to the Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) complex and the tank farm. Aramco shut down the refinery on July 27. The initial restart was scheduled for around August 15.

The Houthis claimed responsibility for a drone attack on August 9. The Saudi Ministry of Energy confirmed a fire at the complex. Independent agencies reported that the fire damaged one crude oil storage tank. On August 13, the Houthis announced that two drones had struck the refinery, describing it as a “precision hit.” Aramco CEO Amin Nasser previously stated that the attacks caused some production disruptions but expressed hope for a quick restoration, noting that there was no significant operational or financial impact on the company’s overall situation, according to news agencies.

Saudi Arabian oil exports (Source: Discovery Alert)

Oil consumption rises

– Preliminary data indicate that global refinery oil intake rose by 1.4 million barrels per day in July, according to the August edition of the *OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report*. This rebound was driven by the completion of maintenance programs at refineries in North America and Europe. Refinery capacity was also restored in certain Middle Eastern countries.

However, refinery outages remained above historical levels due to ongoing disruptions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, as well as heightened maintenance activity in Asia—particularly in China—OPEC reports. Despite these constraints, refineries continued to operate at high utilization rates where capacity was available, supported by favorable refining economics. Global refinery capacity utilization exceeded 78% in July 2026.

Saudi Arabia offers loading at terminals outside the Persian Gulf, utilizing a southern route via the Red Sea. This means that tankers transporting crude oil to Asia must travel thousands of miles around Africa. Millions of barrels of Saudi crude are transported northward through the Red Sea, bypassing the narrow strait near Yemen at the sea’s southern end. China is being offered oil supplies from the Middle East for pickup at a location just beyond the Persian Gulf.

Saudi Arabia’s decision to reroute oil exports to secure ports was crucial in curbing a surge in oil prices and shielding economies from skyrocketing inflation after Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Now that Yanbu is also under threat from Iran-backed Houthi rebels, the Kingdom and its customers must make new arrangements, according to an analysis by Bloomberg analysts Weilun S., Prejula Prem, Grant Smith, Julian Lee, Sherry Su, Serene Cheong, and Anthony DiPaola.

US oil exports, 2024–2026, months 1–7 (Source: Banchero Costa Research)

US and Saudi Arabia rescue the oil market

Strong demand for middle distillates, supply disruptions, and relatively low product inventories supported refining margins and encouraged refineries to maximize crude oil processing. Refinery owners in North America and Europe capitalized on the critical situation in the oil market. OPEC notes that maintenance schedules in these regions were either accelerated or curtailed. Improved operating rates partially offset supply losses from the Middle East and Russia. In Asia, refinery activity improved, although maintenance programs and feedstock constraints dampened the rebound in some countries, OPEC states.

Despite drone attacks and partial damage to refineries, Saudi Arabia’s reported output rose from approximately 7.1 million barrels per day in June to 8.2 million barrels per day in July 2026—an increase of just over 1 million barrels per day month-on-month—according to “Discovery Alert.” This recovery coincided with a brief ceasefire in the conflict with Iran, creating a temporary operational window for Persian Gulf producers to resume extraction activities.

This provided a respite for oil buyers. As Saudi Arabia simultaneously reported that in July of this year… …supplied approximately 7.42 million barrels per day to the market. This means that the gap between production and sales on the global market amounted to around 780,000 barrels per day. This difference directly impacted domestic crude oil inventories; according to International Energy Agency estimates, they reached their highest level since 2016 by early August 2026.

Refinery activity (Source: “OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report,” August 2026)

Asian and European refineries step up

OPEC anticipates that, despite disruptions caused by drone attacks, global refining operations will strengthen as seasonal maintenance concludes and additional processing capacity is gradually brought back online. Market activity on the demand side in the fourth quarter of this year will be influenced by improved refinery availability in Asia.

Operational activity in Eastern Europe is also expected to improve in the fourth quarter of 2026, alongside a gradual restoration of refining output in the Middle East. “While geopolitical developments remain a key source of uncertainty, steady demand for refined products and favorable refining margins are expected to encourage refineries to maintain high operating rates,” the authors of the “OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report” predict.

OPEC forecasts that demand for heating oil in OECD countries will rise by approximately 70,000 b/d year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026. In OECD countries across the Americas and Europe, heating oil will be the primary driver of demand in the fourth quarter of 2026. In APEC countries, the market will be shaped by demand for “other fuels,” including LPG and LNG.

Total demand for heating oil in OECD countries is projected to increase by 100,000 b/d year-on-year. The largest increases are projected for the OECD Americas region. OPEC forecasts demand growth of approximately 50,000 b/d year-on-year. In Europe, demand is expected to rise by about 20,000 b/d year-on-year. Demand for heating oil in OECD Asia-Pacific countries is projected to increase by approximately 10,000 b/d year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to the “OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report.”