Polish ports can expect additional grain shipments in transit and help stabilize maritime grain logistics disrupted by the blockade of Black Sea transport routes. Grain terminals in Gdynia, Gdańsk, and Szczecin have an opportunity to capitalize on shifts in the global grain market. According to FAO forecasts and importer projections, demand for grain—including wheat—is set to rise in the 2026/2027 season. The situation remains dynamic.

Some global wheat buyers are bracing for supply constraints due to the blockades of Black Sea ports. However, wheat prices have risen, and exporters are reaping exceptional profits; consequently, they will seek ways to export their planned shipments—especially given that production in many regions may decline due to adverse conditions, while FAO forecasts predict rising demand.

On August 27, Naomi Blohm, a senior market adviser at Farm Futures, reported a rise in wheat prices on the US market during the afternoon market summary. The increase in wheat prices stood out amidst a mixed trading session across US grain markets.

Most wheat contracts gained at least 1.5% as technical buying extended what Farm Futures described as a “hot streak,” according to a report by Emily Trask for *AgroLatam*. Trask is a US-based journalist covering agricultural trade, policy, and the agri-food markets of the US and Latin America.

Top 10 wheat exporters (in USD billion). Source: Rank The World

Wheat prices rise in Chicago

“Wheat prices are surging due to fears that Russia will intensify its offensive in Ukraine. Grain futures hit a three-year high after peace talks stalled, threatening further food price inflation,” reported Emma Taggart, an economics reporter for *The Telegraph*, on August 27.

December SRW wheat futures in Chicago surged during Thursday’s session [August 27 – MG] following an initial dip, strengthening momentum in the wheat market. For grain producers and sellers, these increases represent another variable influencing pre-harvest marketing decisions—particularly where cash prices, basis levels, storage costs, and insurance guarantees affect the timing and method of grain sales—explains Emily Trask.

In the *Food Outlook, June 2025* report, Erin Collier of the FAO projected that “global wheat consumption will reach 805.4 million tonnes in 2025/26. The largest increase is expected in feed and other non-food uses, primarily in China and the United States.” The FAO forecast that global wheat consumption would rise alongside population growth.

Leading wheat producers. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture

Global wheat stocks are projected to shrink by 2.2% from initial levels, falling to 310.0 million tonnes by the end of the 2026 season. Based on current production and consumption forecasts, the global wheat stocks-to-use ratio is expected to drop to 38.1%, down from 39.3% in 2024/25. These forecasts assumed there would be no major disruptions to wheat exports from Black Sea ports.

Black Sea without wheat

The situation changed drastically this summer. Attacks on infrastructure facilitating grain exports from Black Sea ports are disrupting supply logistics to many vulnerable markets. A significant threat to food security has already emerged for major buyers such as Egypt and Indonesia. Furthermore, demand from key importers could rise as a result of price increases.

Grain exports from Russia and Ukraine via the Black Sea have virtually ceased. Attacks on maritime transport have paralyzed over 97% of the grain export capacity of Russian and Ukrainian ports in the Sea of ​​Azov and Black Sea basins. A vital maritime logistics system for low-cost supplies—serving primarily Arab and African markets—has effectively been cut off. Importers in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia now face the prospect of sourcing grain from other suppliers at higher costs. Among them were traders from countries such as Australia and the United States.

Suppliers, freight forwarders, and transport companies have already responded to the disruptions in the Black Sea region by raising prices. Futures contracts on the benchmark Chicago exchange have risen by more than 17% since the beginning of July, driven primarily by supply shortages from the Black Sea. Meanwhile, prices from competing exporters have surged. Suppliers from Argentina, Australia, and the United States have benefited from the bottlenecks in the Black Sea.

US wheat prices, August 27, 2026. Source: Emily Trask, “Wheat Breaks $8 as Export Demand Reshapes U.S. Grain Markets,” AgroLatam.com

– Wheat futures topped $8 as export demand and global supply risks bolstered US grain markets, opening up new pricing opportunities ahead of the harvest, notes Emily Trask in *Agro Latam*. Emily Trask is a US-based journalist covering agricultural trade, policy, and the agri-food markets of the US and Latin America.

**Rising Kansas City Wheat Prices**

Kansas City winter wheat futures crossed the psychological $8-per-bushel threshold on Thursday, August 27, as technical buying and improving export indicators strengthened the position of wheat producers, reports Emily Trask.

On August 27, *Farm Futures* reported that “September HRW [Hard Red Winter] wheat gained 11.5 cents to break the $8 mark, while the price for September Chicago winter wheat rose 12.25 cents to nearly $7.43.” Emily Trask believes that “this price movement is economically significant, as higher pre-harvest commodity prices could expand marketing alternatives for US farms grappling with high input costs, margin pressures, and volatile global demand.” China and India are leading consumers of wheat (accounting for 35% to 40% of global consumption) in the 2024/25 season. Populations in North Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia also consume significant amounts of wheat, as it serves as a staple ingredient for baked goods. In Asia, countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines are importing increasing quantities of wheat alongside continuous population and income growth.

Wheat Bushels from the US and Europe

The US market responded quickly. US wheat sales reached 14.8 million bushels during the week ending August 20. This represented a 31% increase over the average of the preceding four weeks. Shipments totaled 19.2 million bushels and were primarily destined for Pacific markets. Vessels carrying US wheat sailed to the Philippines, Japan, Bangladesh, and South Korea, according to a weekly report by Farm Futures. Along with Mexico, these nations are likely to be the primary recipients of US wheat in the 2026/27 marketing year.

Major wheat consumers. Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture. Graphic: RankingRoyals.com

The European Union will also play a role in shifts regarding maritime wheat transport and seaport handling operations. Citing European Commission data, *Farm Futures* reported that EU soft wheat exports have totaled 87.5 million bushels since the beginning of June. This figure is only slightly below the pace recorded in 2025. EU stockpiles have fallen to 415.2 million bushels.

Wheat prices in the UK rose by £2 per tonne in the latest round of trading, further reinforcing the upward trend in grain prices observed in recent weeks, reports Richard Halleron of *Agriland*. UK wheat futures for November 2026 delivery closed the week ending Friday, August 23, at £205 per tonne. According to the Agricultural and Horticultural Development Board (AHDB), Friday’s UK price was approximately £1 per tonne higher than the price for wheat futures for December 2026 delivery.

Grain futures prices rose last week after a crop analysis by the US-based Pro Farmer revealed lower-than-expected corn yields. Consequently, Chicago corn futures for December 2026 delivery gained 5.2% over the week, closing Friday’s session at new, higher price levels. 15 million tonnes of wheat up for grabs

A Farm Futures report notes that “continued hostilities involving Russia and Ukraine could shift 15 million tonnes of wheat to other exporters.” Drought-related constraints in Europe, combined with the timing of new crop deliveries from Argentina and Australia, could therefore boost interest in US grain supplies, according to Emily Trask.

Meanwhile, market observers have noted that Russian wheat export prices are falling as shipments are expected to hit a 16-year low. Russian wheat export prices dropped last week, though some analysts view these figures as merely symbolic, given that shipments from southern ports have effectively ground to a halt due to the escalating conflict with Ukraine. Export prices in the Baltic region—where most shipments are likely to be rerouted due to handling capacity—were significantly higher than in Novorossiysk but remained largely unchanged over the week.

In its August WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) report, the USDA raised its production forecast for key grains and oilseeds in Ukraine to 85.7 million tonnes. Market analysis confirms the outlook for a bumper harvest; however, concerns remain regarding Ukraine’s ability to sell the produce, says Kateryna Mudriian, lead grain market analyst at ASAP Agri, as reported by Latifundist.com.

ASAP (Anomaly Hotspots of Agricultural Production) Agri’s updated production forecast is higher than the US estimate, projecting a total output of 86.1 million tonnes. This adjustment was made following the finalization of the wheat harvest forecast. However, export forecasts have been revised downwards. In its August WASDE report, the USDA lowered its forecast for exports of key grains and oilseeds from Ukraine by 2.5 million tonnes, bringing the total to 42.6 million tonnes.

ASAP Agri also lowered its export forecast for the July–June 2026/27 season from 48.6 million tonnes to 45.8 million tonnes. Lower shipments were recorded in July, and a decline in exports is anticipated for August and September. Ukraine’s Ministry of Economy has also revised its grain export forecast for the 2026/27 season, adjusting the projected volume for foreign markets to 38–40 million tonnes, down from the previous 43 million tonnes.